Pre-tourney Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2012-13
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#39
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#61
Pace56.9#336
Improvement+1.5#108

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#81
Improvement+0.8#125

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#15
Improvement+0.7#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.6% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.6% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.6 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four33.7% n/a n/a
First Round34.8% n/a n/a
Second Round15.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen5.9% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.8% n/a n/a
Final Four0.7% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 12 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2012 145   @ George Mason L 59-63 74%     0 - 1 +0.6 -1.5 +1.4
  Nov 12, 2012 155   Fairfield W 54-45 90%     1 - 1 +6.4 -1.9 +10.6
  Nov 13, 2012 168   Delaware L 53-59 90%     1 - 2 -9.3 -15.9 +5.9
  Nov 17, 2012 229   Seattle W 83-43 95%     2 - 2 +32.8 +7.6 +23.8
  Nov 19, 2012 346   Lamar W 63-44 99%     3 - 2 -3.2 -10.3 +9.4
  Nov 20, 2012 261   North Texas W 80-64 96%     4 - 2 +7.0 +8.3 -0.5
  Nov 28, 2012 14   @ Wisconsin W 60-54 24%     5 - 2 +24.4 +14.3 +11.4
  Dec 01, 2012 126   Green Bay W 67-51 86%     6 - 2 +15.4 +0.9 +16.1
  Dec 05, 2012 60   Tennessee W 46-38 73%     7 - 2 +12.9 -17.5 +31.7
  Dec 08, 2012 342   Mississippi Valley W 67-39 99%     8 - 2 +9.4 -9.2 +20.7
  Dec 19, 2012 211   Morgan St. W 75-57 93%     9 - 2 +12.3 +1.9 +10.8
  Dec 22, 2012 276   Old Dominion L 61-63 94%     9 - 3 -8.9 -3.3 -6.0
  Dec 30, 2012 249   Wofford W 74-39 95%     10 - 3 +26.6 +15.8 +16.5
  Jan 06, 2013 26   North Carolina W 61-52 57%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +18.3 -3.6 +22.7
  Jan 09, 2013 127   @ Wake Forest L 52-55 70%     11 - 4 1 - 1 +2.8 -9.5 +11.9
  Jan 12, 2013 111   @ Clemson L 44-59 65%     11 - 5 1 - 2 -7.9 -12.2 +0.9
  Jan 19, 2013 109   Florida St. W 56-36 83%     12 - 5 2 - 2 +20.8 -3.0 +29.1
  Jan 24, 2013 160   @ Virginia Tech W 74-58 76%     13 - 5 3 - 2 +19.7 +11.0 +11.0
  Jan 26, 2013 93   Boston College W 65-51 81%     14 - 5 4 - 2 +15.8 +0.0 +18.0
  Jan 29, 2013 29   North Carolina St. W 58-55 59%     15 - 5 5 - 2 +11.9 -9.6 +21.8
  Feb 03, 2013 102   @ Georgia Tech L 60-66 63%     15 - 6 5 - 3 +1.8 +1.9 -0.8
  Feb 07, 2013 111   Clemson W 78-41 84%     16 - 6 6 - 3 +37.7 +16.7 +24.9
  Feb 10, 2013 53   @ Maryland W 80-69 44%     17 - 6 7 - 3 +23.7 +17.5 +6.5
  Feb 12, 2013 160   Virginia Tech W 73-55 90%     18 - 6 8 - 3 +15.2 +8.1 +10.2
  Feb 16, 2013 26   @ North Carolina L 81-93 33%     18 - 7 8 - 4 +3.8 +14.5 -10.6
  Feb 19, 2013 12   @ Miami (FL) L 50-54 24%     18 - 8 8 - 5 +14.5 -2.5 +16.1
  Feb 24, 2013 102   Georgia Tech W 82-54 82%     19 - 8 9 - 5 +29.3 +25.2 +8.1
  Feb 28, 2013 6   Duke W 73-68 38%     20 - 8 10 - 5 +19.4 +6.5 +13.0
  Mar 03, 2013 93   @ Boston College L 52-53 61%     20 - 9 10 - 6 +7.3 -3.7 +10.6
  Mar 07, 2013 109   @ Florida St. L 51-53 65%     20 - 10 10 - 7 +5.3 -5.8 +10.6
  Mar 10, 2013 53   Maryland W 61-58 OT 68%     21 - 10 11 - 7 +9.2 -8.1 +17.2
  Mar 15, 2013 29   North Carolina St. L 56-75 46%     21 - 11 -6.8 -12.6 +5.1
Projected Record 21.0 - 11.0 11.0 - 7.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 49.6% 49.6% 11.6 0.0 0.2 2.1 13.6 33.3 0.3 50.4 49.6%
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 49.6% 0.0% 49.6% 11.6 0.0 0.2 2.1 13.6 33.3 0.3 50.4 49.6%