Pre-tourney Rankings
Conference USA
2017-18


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
63 Middle Tennessee 25.9%   23 - 7 16 - 2 23 - 7 16 - 2 +8.4      +4.2 63 +4.2 63 66.0 250 +9.9 56 +13.1 1
71 Western Kentucky 6.7%   23 - 10 14 - 4 23 - 10 14 - 4 +7.7      +3.8 71 +3.8 71 70.0 154 +7.3 74 +8.4 3
77 Old Dominion 0.0%   25 - 7 15 - 3 25 - 7 15 - 3 +7.2      +3.6 77 +3.6 77 63.0 322 +7.1 77 +9.0 2
115 Marshall 98.7%   13   23 - 10 12 - 6 23 - 10 12 - 6 +3.6      +1.8 115 +1.8 115 84.4 5 +5.3 94 +5.3 4
118 UAB 0.0%   18 - 13 10 - 8 18 - 13 10 - 8 +3.4      +1.7 118 +1.7 118 68.1 206 +1.7 142 +1.7 5
160 Louisiana Tech 0.0%   15 - 16 7 - 11 15 - 16 7 - 11 +0.5      +0.3 160 +0.3 160 67.3 224 -1.1 184 -3.6 10
177 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   16 - 14 11 - 7 16 - 14 11 - 7 -0.9      -0.4 177 -0.4 177 76.5 34 +0.2 166 +1.4 6
193 North Texas 0.0%   13 - 17 8 - 10 13 - 17 8 - 10 -2.0      -1.0 193 -1.0 193 65.5 266 -2.9 212 -3.2 9
229 Southern Miss 0.0%   12 - 18 7 - 11 12 - 18 7 - 11 -4.0      -2.0 229 -2.0 229 63.6 315 -2.0 198 -2.9 8
239 Florida International 0.0%   11 - 18 8 - 10 11 - 18 8 - 10 -4.6      -2.3 239 -2.3 239 70.4 142 -5.7 253 -2.8 7
245 Florida Atlantic 0.0%   9 - 19 6 - 12 9 - 19 6 - 12 -4.9      -2.5 245 -2.5 245 71.0 123 -5.9 260 -6.0 12
249 UTEP 0.0%   10 - 20 6 - 12 10 - 20 6 - 12 -5.2      -2.6 249 -2.6 249 68.3 194 -6.0 261 -5.8 11
295 Rice 0.9%   5 - 24 4 - 14 5 - 24 4 - 14 -7.9      -4.0 295 -4.0 295 68.3 195 -11.2 327 -9.0 13
313 Charlotte 0.4%   5 - 23 2 - 16 5 - 23 2 - 16 -9.3      -4.6 313 -4.6 313 75.4 45 -10.1 314 -12.3 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Middle Tennessee 1.0 100.0
Western Kentucky 3.0 100.0
Old Dominion 2.0 100.0
Marshall 4.0 100.0
UAB 6.0 100.0
Louisiana Tech 9.0 100.0
Texas San Antonio 5.0 100.0
North Texas 7.0 100.0
Southern Miss 9.0 100.0
Florida International 7.0 100.0
Florida Atlantic 11.0 100.0
UTEP 11.0 100.0
Rice 13.0 100.0
Charlotte 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Middle Tennessee 16 - 2 100.0
Western Kentucky 14 - 4 100.0
Old Dominion 15 - 3 100.0
Marshall 12 - 6 100.0
UAB 10 - 8 100.0
Louisiana Tech 7 - 11 100.0
Texas San Antonio 11 - 7 100.0
North Texas 8 - 10 100.0
Southern Miss 7 - 11 100.0
Florida International 8 - 10 100.0
Florida Atlantic 6 - 12 100.0
UTEP 6 - 12 100.0
Rice 4 - 14 100.0
Charlotte 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Middle Tennessee 100.0% 100.0
Western Kentucky
Old Dominion
Marshall
UAB
Louisiana Tech
Texas San Antonio
North Texas
Southern Miss
Florida International
Florida Atlantic
UTEP
Rice
Charlotte


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Middle Tennessee 25.9% 0.0% 25.9% 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.6 19.1 1.0 74.1 25.9%
Western Kentucky 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% 0.1 5.0 1.6 93.3 6.7%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Marshall 98.7% 98.7% 0.0% 13   0.0 8.3 79.0 11.3 0.0 1.3 0.0%
UAB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rice 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%
Charlotte 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Middle Tennessee 25.9% 19.9% 15.0% 5.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 6.7% 6.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 98.7% 0.0% 98.7% 11.6% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 68.8 29.7 1.5
1st Round 99.4% 1.2 0.7 82.1 16.9 0.3
2nd Round 16.9% 0.2 83.1 16.2 0.7
Sweet Sixteen 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4 0.0
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0