Preseason Rankings
Mid-Eastern
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
277 Norfolk St. 31.2%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 5 -6.1      -3.3 263 -2.9 276 70.7 133 0.0 1 0.0 1
299 Bethune-Cookman 20.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 6 -7.7      -3.7 274 -4.0 300 86.2 4 0.0 1 0.0 1
302 NC Central 19.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 5 -7.9      -5.3 311 -2.6 267 62.9 321 0.0 1 0.0 1
305 Howard 18.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 6 -8.2      -1.8 220 -6.3 339 72.8 83 0.0 1 0.0 1
339 Morgan St. 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 8 -12.6      -7.5 339 -5.1 327 72.0 98 0.0 1 0.0 1
341 Maryland Eastern Shore 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 7 - 9 -13.6      -7.4 337 -6.2 338 64.0 310 0.0 1 0.0 1
345 Coppin St. 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 23 7 - 9 -14.5      -9.6 350 -4.9 324 66.9 231 0.0 1 0.0 1
347 N.C. A&T 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 9 -14.8      -7.7 341 -7.1 345 71.9 101 0.0 1 0.0 1
348 South Carolina St. 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 22 7 - 9 -15.5      -7.0 331 -8.5 352 72.5 88 0.0 1 0.0 1
351 Delaware St. 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 20 6 - 10 -16.7      -8.6 345 -8.1 351 62.7 324 0.0 1 0.0 1
352 Florida A&M 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 11 -17.7      -10.0 352 -7.7 350 66.9 233 0.0 1 0.0 1
353 Savannah St. 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 11 -17.8      -10.1 353 -7.7 349 104.2 1 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Norfolk St. 3.0 34.7 20.0 14.4 10.3 6.7 4.8 3.6 2.3 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3
Bethune-Cookman 3.9 21.6 16.6 14.2 12.9 9.4 7.6 6.3 4.3 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.7
NC Central 3.5 24.5 20.2 15.0 12.1 8.5 6.3 4.6 3.7 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.6
Howard 3.9 21.8 16.2 14.6 11.7 10.0 7.8 5.9 4.5 3.2 2.2 1.4 0.6
Morgan St. 5.7 7.3 10.0 11.0 11.1 11.1 10.5 8.9 8.3 7.5 6.6 4.6 3.0
Maryland Eastern Shore 6.6 4.2 6.6 7.7 9.0 10.4 11.0 10.8 10.1 9.8 8.6 6.9 4.8
Coppin St. 6.8 3.7 5.5 7.8 9.1 9.6 10.9 10.6 9.8 9.8 9.4 8.3 5.4
N.C. A&T 6.9 3.1 5.7 6.7 8.6 9.9 11.3 10.7 10.7 10.6 8.6 7.7 6.4
South Carolina St. 7.5 2.5 3.9 5.6 7.2 8.2 9.9 10.5 11.2 10.8 11.3 10.5 8.4
Delaware St. 8.2 1.3 2.3 4.0 5.1 6.3 7.8 10.1 11.4 12.0 14.2 13.4 12.1
Florida A&M 8.8 0.8 1.6 2.9 3.7 5.4 6.9 8.4 10.2 11.6 13.4 16.6 18.5
Savannah St. 8.6 1.1 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.7 7.6 8.2 10.4 11.8 13.6 15.2 16.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Norfolk St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.3 3.9 5.9 8.8 11.2 13.3 14.8 14.7 11.7 8.4 2.9
Bethune-Cookman 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.8 8.9 11.6 13.5 13.5 12.9 10.2 7.3 3.7 1.3
NC Central 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.3 7.8 10.8 13.0 13.8 13.7 12.8 9.2 5.2 1.3
Howard 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.7 4.7 6.9 9.7 11.3 12.9 13.2 12.7 10.4 7.4 3.9 1.4
Morgan St. 8 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.0 7.6 9.7 11.1 12.2 12.1 11.5 9.6 7.4 4.6 2.6 0.9 0.2
Maryland Eastern Shore 7 - 9 0.2 1.1 2.5 4.9 7.6 10.0 12.2 12.7 12.8 11.3 9.4 7.0 4.3 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
Coppin St. 7 - 9 0.2 1.3 2.9 5.5 8.6 10.4 11.9 12.5 12.3 11.3 9.1 6.2 4.0 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1
N.C. A&T 7 - 9 0.2 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.5 10.4 12.5 13.5 12.7 10.6 8.5 6.0 4.2 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
South Carolina St. 7 - 9 0.6 2.0 4.8 7.3 10.2 12.2 12.7 12.8 11.6 9.5 7.0 3.9 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1
Delaware St. 6 - 10 1.2 3.7 6.5 9.7 12.9 13.9 13.3 11.9 9.7 6.8 4.8 2.8 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 5 - 11 1.8 5.7 9.5 12.6 13.3 13.5 12.6 10.5 7.7 5.7 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Savannah St. 5 - 11 1.4 4.9 8.6 11.6 12.8 14.0 12.9 10.6 8.2 6.4 3.7 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Norfolk St. 34.7% 24.0 8.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 21.6% 13.9 5.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
NC Central 24.5% 14.9 7.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Howard 21.8% 13.9 5.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Morgan St. 7.3% 3.8 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Maryland Eastern Shore 4.2% 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Coppin St. 3.7% 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 3.1% 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina St. 2.5% 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware St. 1.3% 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 0.8% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Savannah St. 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Norfolk St. 31.2% 31.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 27.1 68.8 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 18.8 79.3 0.0%
NC Central 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 17.6 81.0 0.0%
Howard 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 17.1 81.3 0.0%
Morgan St. 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.5 96.4 0.0%
Maryland Eastern Shore 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.3 97.7 0.0%
Coppin St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 98.7 0.0%
N.C. A&T 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%
South Carolina St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Delaware St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Florida A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Savannah St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Norfolk St. 31.2% 23.2% 18.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 20.7% 16.8% 11.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NC Central 19.0% 15.5% 10.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Howard 18.7% 15.1% 10.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morgan St. 3.6% 3.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland Eastern Shore 2.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coppin St. 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Savannah St. 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 54.6% 0.5 45.4 54.5 0.1
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0