Preseason Rankings
Mountain West
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 Nevada 89.1%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 4 16 - 2 +16.8      +12.1 1 +4.6 44 72.3 94 0.0 1 0.0 1
45 San Diego St. 37.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 5 +10.0      +4.5 66 +5.5 29 69.6 163 0.0 1 0.0 1
91 Fresno St. 14.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +5.3      +2.4 105 +2.9 87 66.1 252 0.0 1 0.0 1
92 New Mexico 13.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +5.2      +5.0 54 +0.2 158 75.1 50 0.0 1 0.0 1
95 Boise St. 12.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 +5.0      +1.7 120 +3.3 74 69.6 162 0.0 1 0.0 1
139 UNLV 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 9 +2.2      +1.8 115 +0.4 155 78.4 19 0.0 1 0.0 1
144 Utah St. 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 8 - 10 +1.4      +1.6 121 -0.2 172 67.0 228 0.0 1 0.0 1
173 Wyoming 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 8 - 10 -0.6      -0.8 193 +0.2 157 80.8 11 0.0 1 0.0 1
180 Colorado St. 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 -1.0      -0.3 175 -0.7 192 71.8 102 0.0 1 0.0 1
212 Air Force 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 12 -3.0      -1.7 218 -1.3 219 64.9 280 0.0 1 0.0 1
321 San Jose St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 23 3 - 15 -9.8      -7.8 342 -2.0 248 67.2 224 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Nevada 1.5 72.2 16.4 6.3 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Diego St. 3.0 20.3 31.4 18.5 11.4 7.3 5.0 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.1
Fresno St. 4.7 5.6 14.3 15.9 14.8 14.1 11.0 9.3 7.1 4.5 2.6 0.7
New Mexico 4.6 5.7 14.3 17.2 15.8 13.4 11.4 8.7 6.3 4.4 2.1 0.7
Boise St. 4.7 5.7 13.9 16.3 16.1 13.4 11.8 8.7 6.3 4.5 2.7 0.6
UNLV 5.9 2.1 7.4 10.2 11.7 13.1 13.8 12.8 11.8 9.3 5.8 2.1
Utah St. 6.2 1.6 5.4 8.7 11.2 12.4 13.4 13.8 12.7 10.7 7.2 2.8
Wyoming 6.8 1.0 4.0 6.8 8.5 10.8 12.1 13.0 13.5 14.1 11.1 4.9
Colorado St. 7.4 0.6 2.5 4.5 6.9 8.5 10.6 11.6 15.7 16.6 15.6 6.8
Air Force 8.0 0.4 1.1 2.8 4.3 6.6 9.0 12.0 14.9 17.7 20.1 11.0
San Jose St. 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.1 5.7 10.7 22.6 54.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Nevada 16 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.1 4.2 6.9 10.9 15.9 20.1 21.6 16.0
San Diego St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 2.3 3.2 5.5 8.0 10.2 13.1 14.5 14.2 12.4 9.1 4.1 1.5
Fresno St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.4 5.4 7.4 9.2 11.4 12.7 12.8 11.4 9.4 6.8 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.1
New Mexico 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.7 5.1 6.7 9.9 11.1 12.8 13.6 11.6 9.7 7.0 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.2
Boise St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.6 3.2 4.8 6.8 10.0 11.7 12.8 12.9 11.5 9.2 6.7 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.2
UNLV 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.0 6.6 9.5 11.1 12.6 12.7 11.7 9.6 7.3 5.1 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Utah St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.7 8.1 9.8 12.1 13.1 11.6 11.3 9.0 6.3 4.2 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Wyoming 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.3 7.5 9.8 11.7 12.2 12.1 10.7 8.8 7.0 4.8 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 7 - 11 0.6 2.2 4.5 7.3 10.1 11.3 13.3 12.4 10.7 8.9 7.3 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Air Force 6 - 12 0.8 3.3 6.4 10.5 11.8 13.0 13.0 12.2 10.2 7.2 5.0 3.3 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 3 - 15 12.6 18.4 18.9 16.6 12.7 8.4 5.8 3.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Nevada 72.2% 61.3 9.5 1.3 0.2 0.0
San Diego St. 20.3% 13.0 6.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 5.6% 2.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 5.7% 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 5.7% 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1
UNLV 2.1% 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Utah St. 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Air Force 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Nevada 89.1% 56.3% 32.8% 3   13.2 12.6 9.1 10.0 7.3 5.3 5.3 4.8 5.4 6.4 6.4 2.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.9 75.1%
San Diego St. 37.3% 17.0% 20.3% 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.5 5.1 7.5 5.6 2.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 62.7 24.5%
Fresno St. 14.7% 6.7% 8.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.7 3.5 2.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 85.3 8.6%
New Mexico 13.7% 6.1% 7.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.6 3.6 2.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 86.3 8.1%
Boise St. 12.4% 5.9% 6.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 87.6 6.9%
UNLV 5.1% 2.7% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 94.9 2.4%
Utah St. 5.2% 2.3% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 94.8 3.0%
Wyoming 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 98.6 0.3%
Colorado St. 2.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.0 0.8%
Air Force 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.2 0.2%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Nevada 89.1% 3.9% 87.4% 67.7% 42.4% 25.5% 14.6% 7.9% 4.2%
San Diego St. 37.3% 6.9% 34.5% 18.8% 8.3% 3.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Fresno St. 14.7% 3.4% 13.0% 5.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
New Mexico 13.7% 3.6% 11.9% 4.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Boise St. 12.4% 3.1% 11.0% 4.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
UNLV 5.1% 1.3% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah St. 5.2% 1.3% 4.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 2.0% 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 36.5 47.1 14.7 1.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.7 0.0 42.7 45.0 11.3 0.9 0.0
2nd Round 80.5% 1.0 19.5 58.4 20.5 1.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 51.5% 0.6 48.5 46.7 4.7 0.1
Elite Eight 30.0% 0.3 70.0 28.9 1.1 0.0
Final Four 16.8% 0.2 83.2 16.6 0.1
Final Game 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.8 0.0
Champion 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7