Preseason Rankings
Ohio Valley
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 Belmont 39.2%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 13 - 5 +3.7      +3.3 88 +0.4 150 67.5 218 0.0 1 0.0 1
146 Jacksonville St. 21.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +1.2      -0.5 181 +1.8 119 64.8 283 0.0 1 0.0 1
151 Murray St. 20.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +0.9      +0.1 168 +0.9 139 67.3 222 0.0 1 0.0 1
188 Austin Peay 11.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -1.2      +0.7 139 -1.9 244 70.2 149 0.0 1 0.0 1
224 Morehead St. 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3.8      -1.9 225 -1.8 241 69.6 164 0.0 1 0.0 1
259 Tennessee St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -5.7      -6.4 325 +0.7 145 64.0 308 0.0 1 0.0 1
273 Eastern Kentucky 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -6.0      -2.3 239 -3.7 290 69.9 157 0.0 1 0.0 1
285 Tennessee Martin 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 10 -6.6      -5.1 307 -1.5 228 65.4 270 0.0 1 0.0 1
287 Tennessee Tech 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -6.9      -6.5 327 -0.4 180 75.2 47 0.0 1 0.0 1
298 Eastern Illinois 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 11 -7.7      -5.5 314 -2.2 256 63.8 314 0.0 1 0.0 1
308 Southeast Missouri St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -8.6      -2.8 254 -5.8 331 71.3 114 0.0 1 0.0 1
320 SIU Edwardsville 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -9.7      -4.7 298 -5.0 326 71.1 122 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Belmont 2.6 40.1 22.2 13.6 9.8 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
Jacksonville St. 3.4 25.7 19.9 16.5 12.4 8.4 5.3 4.5 3.0 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.5
Murray St. 3.3 24.9 21.7 16.6 12.0 8.1 6.0 3.8 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.4
Austin Peay 4.3 15.2 15.6 15.3 13.7 10.8 8.4 6.6 4.9 3.7 2.8 1.9 1.0
Morehead St. 6.3 4.9 7.1 9.1 10.2 11.2 11.0 10.6 10.0 8.5 8.0 5.8 3.5
Tennessee St. 6.9 3.2 4.8 7.1 8.9 10.9 11.2 11.0 10.4 10.0 8.9 8.2 5.4
Eastern Kentucky 7.5 2.4 3.6 5.2 7.3 8.6 10.3 10.3 11.2 11.4 11.0 10.7 7.9
Tennessee Martin 7.3 2.5 3.9 6.2 7.8 9.0 10.3 11.2 10.7 10.1 9.8 9.8 8.5
Tennessee Tech 7.5 1.9 3.7 5.8 7.1 9.3 10.2 10.4 10.9 10.7 10.8 10.2 8.8
Eastern Illinois 7.7 1.5 3.1 4.4 6.4 8.4 10.1 11.0 12.0 11.2 10.8 11.1 10.0
Southeast Missouri St. 8.4 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.7 6.4 8.3 9.6 11.0 12.0 13.1 14.8 14.0
SIU Edwardsville 8.7 0.8 1.3 2.6 3.9 5.5 7.5 8.7 11.1 12.2 13.8 15.0 17.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Belmont 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.6 7.9 10.9 12.6 14.5 14.9 11.9 9.0 3.8
Jacksonville St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 2.1 3.0 4.5 6.2 9.0 10.7 12.1 12.9 13.4 10.7 7.6 4.4 1.6
Murray St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.3 1.7 2.6 4.5 6.3 8.0 10.9 12.4 13.3 12.4 11.3 7.9 4.9 1.6
Austin Peay 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.5 3.6 5.5 6.9 9.0 10.9 12.2 11.9 11.0 9.7 7.1 4.7 2.1 0.6
Morehead St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.7 4.8 6.4 8.9 10.7 11.3 11.4 10.9 9.3 8.2 5.8 3.6 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1
Tennessee St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.9 6.0 8.2 10.4 11.7 11.9 11.1 9.8 8.2 6.5 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 7 - 11 0.3 1.8 3.5 5.7 8.0 10.3 11.4 11.4 11.7 10.3 8.4 6.5 4.3 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 8 - 10 0.5 1.3 3.4 5.2 7.7 9.3 10.6 12.1 11.1 10.3 8.8 7.2 5.2 3.5 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 7 - 11 0.4 1.6 3.6 5.9 7.5 10.0 11.2 11.4 11.4 10.6 8.9 6.6 4.7 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois 7 - 11 0.7 2.0 3.7 6.3 8.4 10.5 11.4 12.5 11.6 10.0 8.3 6.2 3.6 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 6 - 12 1.0 3.3 5.7 8.5 11.0 12.4 12.2 11.9 10.2 8.1 6.0 4.1 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 6 - 12 1.2 4.1 6.9 9.9 11.7 12.6 12.8 11.3 9.1 7.4 5.5 3.2 2.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 40.1% 28.6 9.1 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 25.7% 16.8 6.6 1.8 0.3 0.1
Murray St. 24.9% 16.4 6.7 1.6 0.3 0.0
Austin Peay 15.2% 8.9 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 4.9% 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 3.2% 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 2.5% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 1.9% 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 39.2% 37.9% 1.3% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.3 3.4 7.7 9.1 7.5 5.5 2.0 60.8 2.1%
Jacksonville St. 21.6% 21.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.0 3.8 5.3 5.2 4.1 78.4 0.3%
Murray St. 20.5% 19.9% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.6 5.1 4.4 1.9 79.5 0.8%
Austin Peay 11.5% 11.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.9 2.9 2.4 88.5 0.2%
Morehead St. 5.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 94.6 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 97.9 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 98.5 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 39.2% 1.4% 38.5% 8.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 21.6% 2.1% 20.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 20.5% 0.9% 20.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 11.5% 1.5% 10.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 5.4% 1.0% 4.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 2.1% 0.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 1.5% 0.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.6 2.4 0.0
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 94.8 1.6 0.0
2nd Round 15.1% 0.2 84.9 15.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0