Preseason Rankings
Summit League
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
79 South Dakota St. 51.3%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 12 - 4 +6.3      +5.7 47 +0.5 149 73.6 69 0.0 1 0.0 1
134 South Dakota 22.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 10 - 6 +2.4      +0.2 164 +2.2 104 73.8 64 0.0 1 0.0 1
169 Purdue Fort Wayne 12.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 9 - 7 -0.2      +1.0 135 -1.2 210 79.2 17 0.0 1 0.0 1
199 North Dakota St. 7.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 8 -2.1      -1.5 213 -0.6 189 66.2 248 0.0 1 0.0 1
200 Denver 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 8 -2.2      -1.2 201 -1.0 203 65.8 258 0.0 1 0.0 1
253 Nebraska Omaha 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 10 -5.2      -0.8 194 -4.4 311 73.3 72 0.0 1 0.0 1
270 Western Illinois 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 6 - 10 -6.0      -3.8 280 -2.2 253 68.7 190 0.0 1 0.0 1
271 North Dakota 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 6 - 10 -6.0      -3.5 273 -2.5 261 76.1 39 0.0 1 0.0 1
283 Oral Roberts 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 10 -6.4      -1.7 219 -4.7 320 63.8 312 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 1.9 55.2 21.9 10.4 6.1 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2
South Dakota 3.0 26.0 24.9 17.2 11.6 8.1 5.2 3.7 2.4 0.9
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.9 13.5 18.3 17.7 15.2 12.0 9.1 6.9 4.5 2.8
North Dakota St. 4.7 8.0 12.6 14.3 14.8 14.0 12.1 10.9 8.2 5.1
Denver 4.7 7.4 12.2 15.3 15.0 13.9 12.4 9.7 8.4 5.5
Nebraska Omaha 5.8 3.2 5.7 9.0 11.2 13.3 14.4 15.5 14.0 13.7
Western Illinois 6.2 2.2 4.9 7.3 9.4 12.5 13.7 16.1 17.0 16.8
North Dakota 6.1 2.2 5.1 7.3 9.5 12.4 13.8 15.7 17.3 16.6
Oral Roberts 6.3 1.8 4.2 6.7 9.7 11.8 14.0 16.0 17.3 18.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 3.7 6.0 7.8 12.0 14.5 16.2 16.7 13.0 6.4
South Dakota 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.1 6.2 8.5 10.6 13.1 13.7 13.4 11.0 8.0 4.8 1.5
Purdue Fort Wayne 9 - 7 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.7 5.4 7.4 9.3 12.0 13.6 12.3 11.6 9.5 6.7 3.9 1.6 0.4
North Dakota St. 8 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 6.1 8.5 10.7 12.1 12.3 12.5 10.7 8.5 6.1 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.1
Denver 8 - 8 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.6 6.2 8.4 10.2 12.0 12.2 12.8 10.9 8.5 6.0 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.1
Nebraska Omaha 6 - 10 0.8 2.4 5.1 8.1 10.7 12.1 13.3 12.5 11.2 8.5 6.3 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 6 - 10 1.0 3.4 6.8 9.9 12.1 13.3 13.3 11.9 9.2 7.4 5.1 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Dakota 6 - 10 1.2 3.2 6.4 9.9 12.5 13.1 12.7 11.9 9.4 7.6 5.3 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oral Roberts 6 - 10 1.4 4.0 7.3 10.2 12.4 12.9 13.6 11.6 9.3 7.2 4.8 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 55.2% 43.9 9.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Dakota 26.0% 17.6 6.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 13.5% 8.5 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 8.0% 4.3 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Denver 7.4% 4.2 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 3.2% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 2.2% 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 51.3% 49.8% 1.5% 14   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.6 4.5 9.9 13.3 9.9 5.8 2.6 48.7 2.9%
South Dakota 22.6% 22.2% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.5 4.2 5.7 4.6 3.9 77.4 0.5%
Purdue Fort Wayne 12.2% 12.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.9 3.2 2.8 87.8 0.1%
North Dakota St. 7.4% 7.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.8 92.6 0.1%
Denver 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Nebraska Omaha 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 97.2 0.0%
Western Illinois 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 98.0 0.0%
North Dakota 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 97.7 0.0%
Oral Roberts 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 98.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 51.3% 1.7% 50.5% 12.8% 4.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
South Dakota 22.6% 2.2% 21.7% 3.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 12.2% 1.6% 11.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 7.4% 1.1% 6.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 2.8% 0.6% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 2.0% 1.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 2.3% 0.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 1.4% 0.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.0 2.0 0.0
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 95.0 1.4 0.0
2nd Round 19.2% 0.2 80.8 19.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 6.3% 0.1 93.7 6.3 0.0
Elite Eight 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0