Preseason Rankings
Boise St.
Mountain West
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#95
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#162
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 13.4% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.9% 7.6% 1.5%
Average Seed 10.7 10.6 12.3
.500 or above 74.3% 77.7% 47.7%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 74.2% 57.1%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.2% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.4% 2.8%
First Four3.1% 3.3% 1.3%
First Round11.0% 11.9% 4.1%
Second Round4.4% 4.8% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 2.20.2 - 2.2
Quad 1b0.5 - 1.90.7 - 4.1
Quad 22.2 - 3.63.0 - 7.7
Quad 35.2 - 3.68.2 - 11.2
Quad 49.1 - 1.517.3 - 12.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 247   Idaho St. W 78-68 89%    
  Nov 16, 2018 335   Jackson St. W 73-56 96%    
  Nov 19, 2018 41   Creighton L 73-78 32%    
  Nov 20, 2018 119   St. Bonaventure W 73-71 57%    
  Nov 21, 2018 75   Illinois St. L 72-74 44%    
  Nov 27, 2018 202   @ Drake W 75-68 65%    
  Dec 01, 2018 114   @ Grand Canyon W 71-69 45%    
  Dec 12, 2018 325   Alabama St. W 80-65 94%    
  Dec 15, 2018 17   @ Oregon L 66-75 16%    
  Dec 19, 2018 165   @ Loyola Marymount W 75-70 58%    
  Dec 22, 2018 168   Pacific W 73-68 76%    
  Dec 29, 2018 17   Oregon L 66-75 33%    
  Jan 02, 2019 173   @ Wyoming W 79-73 58%    
  Jan 05, 2019 45   San Diego St. L 69-74 44%    
  Jan 12, 2019 321   @ San Jose St. W 75-60 84%    
  Jan 15, 2019 7   Nevada L 71-83 23%    
  Jan 19, 2019 91   Fresno St. L 69-70 59%    
  Jan 22, 2019 212   @ Air Force W 73-65 66%    
  Jan 26, 2019 173   Wyoming W 79-73 77%    
  Jan 29, 2019 180   @ Colorado St. W 76-70 60%    
  Feb 02, 2019 7   @ Nevada L 71-83 11%    
  Feb 06, 2019 139   UNLV W 78-75 68%    
  Feb 09, 2019 321   San Jose St. W 75-60 93%    
  Feb 13, 2019 91   @ Fresno St. L 69-70 40%    
  Feb 16, 2019 45   @ San Diego St. L 69-74 26%    
  Feb 23, 2019 144   Utah St. W 73-69 71%    
  Feb 27, 2019 180   Colorado St. W 76-70 77%    
  Mar 02, 2019 139   @ UNLV W 78-75 49%    
  Mar 06, 2019 92   @ New Mexico L 76-77 40%    
  Mar 09, 2019 212   Air Force W 73-65 81%    
Projected Record 17.3 - 12.7 10.3 - 7.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.2 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.0 4.6 2.5 0.4 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.0 4.4 1.3 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.7 6.5 3.3 0.4 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.2 5.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.3 5.1 1.4 0.1 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.6 1.2 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.4 1.0 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.6 3.2 4.8 6.8 10.0 11.7 12.8 12.9 11.5 9.2 6.7 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 81.6% 1.8    1.3 0.5 0.0
15-3 43.5% 1.9    0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 11.7% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 99.3% 32.6% 66.8% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
17-1 0.8% 92.3% 34.4% 58.0% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 88.3%
16-2 2.2% 77.8% 24.7% 53.1% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 70.5%
15-3 4.4% 60.3% 18.6% 41.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.8 51.2%
14-4 6.7% 36.2% 13.4% 22.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.3 26.4%
13-5 9.2% 19.7% 9.8% 9.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.4 10.9%
12-6 11.5% 9.7% 6.5% 3.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.4 3.4%
11-7 12.9% 5.8% 4.9% 0.9% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.1 1.0%
10-8 12.8% 3.2% 3.0% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.4 0.1%
9-9 11.7% 2.7% 2.6% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.4 0.1%
8-10 10.0% 2.3% 2.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.8
7-11 6.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
6-12 4.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.4% 5.9% 6.5% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 87.6 6.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 3.3 3.3 90.0 3.3