Preseason Rankings
Horizon
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
103 Wright St. 28.7%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 8 13 - 5 +4.1      +1.6 127 +2.5 103 64.2 299 0.0 1 0.0 1
131 Illinois-Chicago 18.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +1.8      +1.0 138 +0.8 137 74.0 62 0.0 1 0.0 1
133 Northern Kentucky 18.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 +1.7      +1.4 130 +0.3 154 69.6 151 0.0 1 0.0 1
167 Green Bay 11.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -0.3      +1.9 119 -2.1 231 82.1 10 0.0 1 0.0 1
201 Oakland 6.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -2.5      +0.2 167 -2.7 250 70.5 129 0.0 1 0.0 1
219 Detroit Mercy 5.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 8 - 10 -3.2      +2.9 93 -6.1 337 71.0 120 0.0 1 0.0 1
225 Youngstown St. 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.5      +1.6 125 -5.1 313 68.2 191 0.0 1 0.0 1
250 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 7 - 11 -4.9      -3.1 265 -1.8 219 66.0 253 0.0 1 0.0 1
253 IUPUI 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 11 -5.1      -2.1 242 -3.0 256 71.1 118 0.0 1 0.0 1
311 Cleveland St. 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 23 5 - 13 -8.9      -4.4 301 -4.5 303 71.8 96 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wright St. 2.7 38.6 21.5 13.7 9.3 6.3 4.5 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.4
Illinois-Chicago 3.5 23.0 18.7 15.7 13.0 9.5 7.3 5.2 4.2 2.3 1.2
Northern Kentucky 3.5 22.4 19.4 16.0 12.6 9.6 7.4 5.2 4.0 2.4 1.1
Green Bay 4.4 13.6 14.5 14.1 13.4 11.8 10.5 8.6 6.4 4.6 2.5
Oakland 5.4 6.6 9.5 11.3 12.2 13.1 12.1 11.5 10.1 8.2 5.4
Detroit Mercy 5.7 5.5 7.8 9.4 10.9 12.1 13.1 12.0 12.0 10.3 6.9
Youngstown St. 5.8 5.2 7.2 9.4 10.6 12.2 12.3 12.8 12.0 10.8 7.7
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 6.5 3.0 5.2 6.6 8.8 11.0 11.8 13.6 13.8 14.3 11.9
IUPUI 6.5 2.7 4.6 6.6 8.6 10.5 12.4 13.5 14.7 14.7 11.7
Cleveland St. 8.1 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.4 5.3 7.6 10.6 14.7 21.0 33.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wright St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.3 7.4 9.9 11.5 13.3 13.1 11.5 9.7 6.2 2.3
Illinois-Chicago 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.6 4.7 6.7 8.7 10.4 11.5 12.0 11.6 9.7 8.1 5.4 2.7 0.8
Northern Kentucky 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.4 5.0 6.6 8.8 10.2 11.6 12.3 11.3 10.3 8.0 5.1 2.6 0.8
Green Bay 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.5 7.9 9.6 10.6 11.2 11.3 10.7 9.1 6.8 4.8 2.6 1.0 0.3
Oakland 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 4.9 6.9 8.4 10.4 11.3 11.6 10.7 9.6 8.0 6.0 3.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
Detroit Mercy 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.0 6.1 8.0 10.3 10.9 11.8 10.9 9.8 8.4 6.4 4.5 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.0
Youngstown St. 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.1 6.2 8.3 10.1 11.4 11.4 10.7 10.1 8.0 6.2 4.3 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 7 - 11 0.6 1.8 4.0 6.4 8.2 10.4 11.3 11.9 11.4 9.6 7.9 6.3 4.3 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
IUPUI 7 - 11 0.5 1.9 3.8 6.3 8.8 10.5 11.7 12.0 11.5 9.7 8.1 5.8 4.1 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 5 - 13 3.0 7.4 10.7 13.1 13.7 13.2 10.7 9.0 6.8 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wright St. 38.6% 28.4 8.4 1.5 0.2 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 23.0% 15.8 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Kentucky 22.4% 15.5 5.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 13.6% 8.6 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
Oakland 6.6% 3.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 5.5% 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Youngstown St. 5.2% 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.0% 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
IUPUI 2.7% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wright St. 28.7% 27.9% 0.8% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.8 5.8 7.6 6.0 3.9 1.6 71.3 1.1%
Illinois-Chicago 18.4% 18.0% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 3.2 4.6 4.2 3.1 1.7 81.6 0.6%
Northern Kentucky 18.0% 17.6% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 2.7 4.1 4.5 3.6 1.6 82.0 0.5%
Green Bay 11.9% 11.6% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 3.0 2.7 1.8 88.1 0.3%
Oakland 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.5 93.5 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 5.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.6 94.3 0.0%
Youngstown St. 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.7 94.8 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 96.6 0.0%
IUPUI 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 96.6 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wright St. 28.7% 1.1% 28.1% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 18.4% 1.0% 18.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 18.0% 0.8% 17.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 11.9% 1.0% 11.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 6.5% 0.6% 6.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 5.7% 0.7% 5.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 5.2% 0.9% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.4% 0.6% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 3.4% 0.8% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.0 2.0 0.0
1st Round 97.1% 1.0 2.9 95.9 1.2 0.0
2nd Round 13.7% 0.1 86.3 13.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0