Preseason Rankings
Ivy League
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
69 Harvard 45.6%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 7 10 - 4 +7.9      +4.2 69 +3.6 79 68.1 195 0.0 1 0.0 1
98 Penn 22.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 10 9 - 5 +4.4      +1.6 126 +2.8 93 68.3 188 0.0 1 0.0 1
143 Princeton 9.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 7 - 7 +1.0      -1.1 212 +2.1 112 68.0 202 0.0 1 0.0 1
144 Yale 11.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 7 - 7 +1.0      +2.1 110 -1.2 199 75.2 48 0.0 1 0.0 1
171 Brown 7.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 6 - 8 -0.6      -1.1 211 +0.6 143 75.9 37 0.0 1 0.0 1
173 Columbia 6.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 6 - 8 -0.7      +1.2 134 -1.8 221 69.1 166 0.0 1 0.0 1
193 Dartmouth 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 6 - 8 -2.1      +0.1 175 -2.2 232 65.7 268 0.0 1 0.0 1
282 Cornell 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 18 4 - 10 -6.9      -3.7 281 -3.2 265 69.0 169 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Harvard 2.0 52.8 21.5 11.7 6.6 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.3
Penn 3.0 26.1 23.9 17.0 12.5 9.1 6.0 3.8 1.6
Princeton 4.0 11.8 15.7 16.6 15.5 14.4 11.9 9.3 4.8
Yale 4.0 11.3 15.7 16.6 16.3 14.5 11.8 9.1 4.8
Brown 4.6 7.3 11.6 14.2 15.4 15.3 14.6 13.5 8.1
Columbia 4.6 6.8 11.7 13.4 15.4 16.0 15.3 13.0 8.5
Dartmouth 5.1 4.7 8.1 11.3 13.5 15.5 17.0 17.7 12.3
Cornell 6.6 0.8 1.9 3.5 6.1 9.4 14.2 23.1 40.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Harvard 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.4 8.3 11.7 14.9 17.5 16.7 13.1 6.3
Penn 9 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.3 8.2 10.7 12.9 14.5 14.5 12.4 9.0 5.0 1.6
Princeton 7 - 7 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.8 7.6 10.3 13.3 13.4 13.6 12.0 9.7 6.4 3.3 1.5 0.4
Yale 7 - 7 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.7 7.8 10.5 12.7 14.3 13.9 11.8 9.3 6.3 3.6 1.4 0.4
Brown 6 - 8 0.5 1.9 4.3 7.2 10.6 12.9 13.3 13.7 12.4 9.4 6.7 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.2
Columbia 6 - 8 0.4 1.9 4.4 7.7 10.3 12.7 14.4 13.9 12.0 9.1 6.8 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2
Dartmouth 6 - 8 0.9 3.3 6.7 9.9 13.0 14.4 13.5 12.9 9.7 7.0 4.6 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1
Cornell 4 - 10 6.3 12.8 17.5 17.2 14.9 11.5 8.4 5.5 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Harvard 52.8% 40.3 10.3 2.1 0.2 0.0
Penn 26.1% 17.2 7.1 1.7 0.1 0.0
Princeton 11.8% 7.0 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0
Yale 11.3% 6.5 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
Brown 7.3% 4.0 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Columbia 6.8% 3.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
Dartmouth 4.7% 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cornell 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Harvard 45.6% 41.2% 4.4% 12   0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.8 2.3 6.3 12.4 9.1 4.6 1.6 0.3 54.4 7.5%
Penn 22.5% 20.6% 1.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 2.3 6.0 5.4 3.5 1.9 0.3 77.5 2.4%
Princeton 9.9% 9.1% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.7 2.0 0.9 0.3 90.1 0.9%
Yale 11.1% 10.4% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.4 2.6 2.3 1.5 0.5 88.9 0.8%
Brown 7.2% 6.9% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.4 92.8 0.3%
Columbia 6.8% 6.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.6 93.2 0.2%
Dartmouth 4.7% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 95.3 0.1%
Cornell 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Harvard 45.6% 2.4% 44.4% 15.3% 5.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Penn 22.5% 1.1% 22.0% 5.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 9.9% 0.6% 9.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Yale 11.1% 0.6% 10.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 7.2% 0.3% 7.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 6.8% 0.3% 6.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 4.7% 0.3% 4.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.2 0.1
1st Round 99.6% 1.1 0.4 93.7 5.9 0.0
2nd Round 25.7% 0.3 74.3 25.1 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 8.4% 0.1 91.6 8.3 0.1
Elite Eight 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1 0.0
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1