Preseason Rankings
South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#138
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.2#246
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#123
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#178
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 16.3% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 14.0
.500 or above 74.0% 79.2% 54.3%
.500 or above in Conference 77.3% 80.2% 66.3%
Conference Champion 19.1% 21.2% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.7% 5.1%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round14.5% 16.1% 8.3%
Second Round2.2% 2.6% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 410 - 316 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 238   Southern Miss W 73-64 79%    
  Nov 12, 2019 25   Auburn L 69-77 22%    
  Nov 15, 2019 235   @ Chattanooga W 72-70 58%    
  Nov 25, 2019 130   Northeastern L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 08, 2019 105   @ Richmond L 69-75 31%    
  Dec 17, 2019 352   Alabama A&M W 77-55 97%    
  Dec 19, 2019 212   Appalachian St. W 81-74 74%    
  Dec 21, 2019 172   Coastal Carolina W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 02, 2020 202   @ Louisiana W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 04, 2020 223   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 06, 2020 135   @ Texas Arlington L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 09, 2020 271   Arkansas St. W 78-68 81%    
  Jan 11, 2020 220   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 74-72 55%    
  Jan 16, 2020 162   Georgia St. W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 18, 2020 122   Georgia Southern W 79-78 54%    
  Jan 23, 2020 271   @ Arkansas St. W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 25, 2020 220   Arkansas Little Rock W 77-69 73%    
  Jan 30, 2020 162   @ Georgia St. L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 01, 2020 122   @ Georgia Southern L 76-81 34%    
  Feb 08, 2020 297   @ Troy W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 13, 2020 202   Louisiana W 81-74 71%    
  Feb 15, 2020 223   Louisiana Monroe W 75-67 73%    
  Feb 20, 2020 212   @ Appalachian St. W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 22, 2020 172   @ Coastal Carolina L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 29, 2020 297   Troy W 77-65 84%    
  Mar 03, 2020 156   Texas St. W 69-65 62%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 4.6 4.5 3.1 1.7 0.5 19.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.6 4.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.1 3.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.4 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.5 6.8 8.6 9.6 10.5 10.9 10.4 9.1 7.4 5.4 3.3 1.7 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 99.6% 1.7    1.7 0.0
18-2 95.1% 3.1    2.8 0.3 0.0
17-3 84.0% 4.5    3.4 1.1 0.0
16-4 62.0% 4.6    2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 35.2% 3.2    1.3 1.4 0.5 0.0
14-6 11.7% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.1% 19.1 12.7 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 72.4% 58.6% 13.8% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 33.3%
19-1 1.7% 60.8% 52.9% 7.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 16.8%
18-2 3.3% 53.4% 51.6% 1.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 3.6%
17-3 5.4% 40.1% 39.8% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 3.2 0.4%
16-4 7.4% 35.9% 35.8% 0.1% 13.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.7 0.2%
15-5 9.1% 25.9% 25.9% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.0 6.8
14-6 10.4% 19.3% 19.3% 14.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 8.4
13-7 10.9% 10.5% 10.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 9.7
12-8 10.5% 6.2% 6.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.8
11-9 9.6% 3.0% 3.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.3
10-10 8.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.5
9-11 6.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
8-12 5.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.4
7-13 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.7% 14.4% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.3 3.9 2.3 0.6 85.3 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 2.0 15.3 20.4 31.6 16.3 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 95.0% 6.5 5.0 10.0 10.0 70.0