Preseason Rankings
Big 12
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Kansas 86.4%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +17.1      +8.8 9 +8.4 5 69.6 163 0.0 1 0.0 1
7 Texas 77.2%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +16.2      +8.0 15 +8.2 6 70.2 145 0.0 1 0.0 1
9 Baylor 75.5%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +15.9      +8.8 7 +7.1 17 68.3 202 0.0 1 0.0 1
21 Texas Tech 62.1%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +13.5      +5.4 43 +8.1 7 63.8 307 0.0 1 0.0 1
32 West Virginia 56.1%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 9 - 9 +12.0      +6.6 24 +5.5 47 71.4 119 0.0 1 0.0 1
35 Oklahoma St. 55.6%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +11.8      +5.4 44 +6.4 33 77.3 30 0.0 1 0.0 1
40 Oklahoma 47.1%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +11.2      +4.7 54 +6.5 31 67.2 232 0.0 1 0.0 1
80 TCU 22.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 6 - 12 +6.8      +3.4 79 +3.4 80 66.4 253 0.0 1 0.0 1
89 Kansas St. 17.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 12 +6.1      +1.0 145 +5.0 54 64.1 303 0.0 1 0.0 1
127 Iowa St. 5.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 4 - 14 +2.8      +1.4 135 +1.3 134 72.3 99 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Kansas 3.1 30.5 19.9 14.8 11.2 8.5 6.2 4.2 2.8 1.4 0.5
Texas 3.4 24.7 18.8 15.7 12.4 9.7 7.4 5.3 3.4 1.9 0.7
Baylor 3.5 23.9 18.6 15.1 12.6 10.0 7.7 5.5 3.7 2.1 0.8
Texas Tech 4.4 13.2 14.1 14.1 13.5 12.7 10.7 8.9 6.6 4.1 2.1
West Virginia 5.0 9.3 10.7 12.1 12.8 12.8 12.4 11.3 8.9 6.6 3.3
Oklahoma St. 5.1 8.7 10.5 11.8 12.4 12.8 12.6 11.6 9.5 6.7 3.4
Oklahoma 5.3 7.4 9.0 10.7 11.9 12.7 13.3 12.1 10.7 8.0 4.3
TCU 7.0 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.5 8.9 11.6 14.3 16.9 17.7 14.5
Kansas St. 7.3 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.7 7.7 10.4 14.0 17.1 20.0 17.5
Iowa St. 8.4 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.5 4.1 6.3 9.7 15.1 23.3 36.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.4 5.0 6.5 8.3 9.9 11.1 12.0 12.0 10.6 8.2 5.5 2.3
Texas 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.8 4.4 6.0 7.5 9.2 11.1 11.6 11.6 10.8 9.0 6.8 3.9 1.4
Baylor 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.8 6.2 7.9 9.3 10.9 11.5 11.3 10.5 9.0 6.4 3.7 1.4
Texas Tech 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.6 7.3 8.9 9.9 11.0 11.1 10.1 9.2 7.4 5.2 3.3 1.5 0.5
West Virginia 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.8 7.3 8.9 10.1 10.5 10.7 10.0 8.9 7.1 5.5 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.3
Oklahoma St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.3 5.8 7.7 9.2 10.3 10.7 10.3 9.7 8.6 7.1 5.3 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.2
Oklahoma 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.0 6.6 8.5 9.8 10.6 10.8 10.1 9.0 7.8 6.1 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2
TCU 6 - 12 1.4 3.6 6.2 9.1 10.3 11.5 11.6 10.8 9.6 8.0 6.1 4.7 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 6 - 12 1.7 4.5 7.8 10.1 11.5 12.0 11.6 10.4 8.9 6.8 5.3 3.7 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 4 - 14 5.5 10.5 13.9 14.5 13.5 11.4 9.3 7.2 5.2 3.5 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kansas 30.5% 22.1 6.8 1.3 0.2 0.0
Texas 24.7% 17.2 6.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
Baylor 23.9% 16.6 5.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Texas Tech 13.2% 8.4 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
West Virginia 9.3% 5.7 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 8.7% 5.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma 7.4% 4.5 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
TCU 1.8% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 1.5% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kansas 86.4% 23.7% 62.7% 1   20.8 15.6 11.0 8.8 7.0 6.0 4.7 3.4 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 82.1%
Texas 77.2% 19.2% 58.0% 3   10.1 9.9 9.1 8.1 7.6 6.9 6.5 6.1 4.4 3.7 3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 22.8 71.8%
Baylor 75.5% 18.8% 56.7% 3   10.2 9.8 9.4 7.9 7.3 6.6 6.6 5.7 4.0 3.4 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.5 69.9%
Texas Tech 62.1% 11.4% 50.7% 7   4.6 5.4 6.1 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.2 5.1 4.5 3.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.9 57.2%
West Virginia 56.1% 8.1% 48.0% 8   4.0 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.1 3.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.9 52.2%
Oklahoma St. 55.6% 7.9% 47.7% 7   4.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.3 3.5 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.4 51.8%
Oklahoma 47.1% 6.7% 40.4% 11   2.4 3.2 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.9 43.3%
TCU 22.6% 2.0% 20.6% 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.4 21.0%
Kansas St. 17.1% 1.6% 15.6% 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.9 15.8%
Iowa St. 5.6% 0.6% 5.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.4 5.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kansas 86.4% 2.3% 85.3% 69.4% 45.5% 27.4% 15.8% 8.8% 4.7%
Texas 77.2% 2.5% 76.1% 58.3% 35.3% 20.3% 11.5% 6.2% 3.4%
Baylor 75.5% 2.4% 74.5% 57.2% 34.8% 19.9% 11.1% 6.0% 3.2%
Texas Tech 62.1% 3.2% 60.6% 42.4% 22.5% 11.5% 5.9% 2.9% 1.4%
West Virginia 56.1% 4.1% 54.0% 36.2% 18.4% 8.9% 4.2% 1.9% 0.8%
Oklahoma St. 55.6% 3.6% 53.9% 35.9% 18.1% 8.7% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8%
Oklahoma 47.1% 3.4% 45.6% 29.6% 14.4% 6.7% 3.0% 1.3% 0.6%
TCU 22.6% 2.7% 21.2% 11.5% 4.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Kansas St. 17.1% 2.2% 16.0% 8.5% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Iowa St. 5.6% 0.9% 5.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.7 6.1 23.3 36.3 25.3 7.4 0.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.9 0.0 0.9 7.8 25.7 36.2 22.7 6.0 0.6 0.0
2nd Round 99.8% 3.5 0.2 3.3 15.0 31.2 31.0 15.4 3.5 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 93.2% 2.0 6.8 26.8 36.8 22.5 6.2 0.9 0.1
Elite Eight 72.9% 1.1 27.1 44.8 22.9 4.8 0.4 0.0
Final Four 47.8% 0.6 52.2 39.3 7.9 0.6 0.0
Final Game 27.6% 0.3 72.4 25.8 1.8
Champion 15.0% 0.2 85.0 15.0