Preseason Rankings
Big East
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Villanova 82.6%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +16.3      +9.4 3 +7.0 21 61.7 338 0.0 1 0.0 1
25 Connecticut 59.9%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 8 +13.1      +6.0 32 +7.1 19 63.8 308 0.0 1 0.0 1
37 Xavier 55.4%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +11.5      +6.2 28 +5.3 50 70.2 148 0.0 1 0.0 1
41 Seton Hall 50.9%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 9 +11.1      +5.4 42 +5.7 42 66.6 250 0.0 1 0.0 1
48 Creighton 40.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 10 +10.0      +5.2 46 +4.8 58 70.3 142 0.0 1 0.0 1
52 St. John's 37.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +9.6      +5.2 48 +4.4 61 81.3 6 0.0 1 0.0 1
64 Butler 31.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 11 +8.6      +3.7 68 +4.9 56 61.7 335 0.0 1 0.0 1
65 Providence 33.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 11 +8.5      +3.6 70 +4.9 55 65.8 267 0.0 1 0.0 1
78 Marquette 25.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 12 +7.1      +3.2 86 +3.9 70 68.2 205 0.0 1 0.0 1
86 Georgetown 21.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 12 +6.3      +3.1 89 +3.2 89 72.1 102 0.0 1 0.0 1
112 DePaul 11.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 6 - 14 +4.1      +1.0 146 +3.1 93 73.4 83 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Villanova 2.9 38.5 19.3 12.8 9.0 6.6 4.7 3.4 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.5
Connecticut 4.1 19.1 16.7 13.7 11.7 9.5 8.2 6.9 5.3 4.3 2.9 1.7
Xavier 4.8 13.3 13.5 12.6 11.5 10.5 9.3 8.6 7.4 5.9 4.5 3.0
Seton Hall 5.0 12.4 12.6 12.2 11.6 10.5 9.7 8.5 7.5 6.7 5.0 3.4
Creighton 5.5 9.0 10.2 10.8 10.7 10.9 10.2 9.8 8.9 7.9 6.6 5.0
St. John's 5.7 8.1 9.6 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.5 9.8 9.5 8.6 7.3 5.4
Butler 6.2 5.7 7.7 9.1 9.6 10.3 10.1 10.5 10.5 10.1 9.1 7.5
Providence 6.2 5.8 7.5 8.8 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.5 9.3 7.4
Marquette 6.9 3.8 5.5 6.7 7.8 9.0 9.9 10.8 11.0 12.0 12.2 11.4
Georgetown 7.2 3.0 4.4 5.9 6.9 8.2 9.4 10.2 11.8 12.6 13.8 13.9
DePaul 8.2 1.3 2.4 3.6 4.4 5.9 7.0 9.0 11.1 13.8 17.9 23.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Villanova 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.5 3.6 4.9 6.3 7.9 9.1 10.5 11.2 11.2 10.6 8.8 6.2 2.7
Connecticut 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.1 5.6 6.7 8.1 9.2 9.6 10.0 9.5 9.1 7.7 5.9 4.0 2.2 0.8
Xavier 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.2 4.4 5.9 7.1 8.2 9.0 9.6 9.6 9.3 8.2 7.2 5.8 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.3
Seton Hall 11 - 9 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.0 6.1 7.3 8.2 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.1 8.2 6.6 5.3 3.8 2.4 1.0 0.3
Creighton 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.3 4.7 5.9 7.3 8.3 9.2 9.6 9.4 8.8 8.0 6.8 5.5 3.9 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2
St. John's 10 - 10 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.6 5.1 6.3 7.8 8.5 9.4 9.5 9.3 8.8 7.7 6.1 5.2 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.1
Butler 9 - 11 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.2 4.9 6.3 7.5 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.4 8.6 8.2 6.5 5.3 4.0 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
Providence 9 - 11 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.3 4.9 6.4 7.8 8.7 9.3 9.7 9.4 8.7 7.7 6.4 5.3 3.8 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
Marquette 8 - 12 0.5 1.8 3.2 4.9 6.4 8.1 8.9 9.2 9.7 9.5 8.7 7.6 6.2 5.2 3.8 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Georgetown 8 - 12 0.8 2.2 4.0 5.9 7.5 8.9 9.8 9.6 9.6 9.0 8.0 6.8 5.7 4.4 3.1 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
DePaul 6 - 14 1.8 4.3 6.9 9.1 10.4 10.9 10.7 9.6 8.6 7.3 6.1 4.6 3.6 2.5 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Villanova 38.5% 29.7 7.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
Connecticut 19.1% 13.3 4.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
Xavier 13.3% 8.8 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 12.4% 8.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Creighton 9.0% 5.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
St. John's 8.1% 5.1 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Butler 5.7% 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Providence 5.8% 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Marquette 3.8% 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1
Georgetown 3.0% 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
DePaul 1.3% 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Villanova 82.6% 28.5% 54.2% 2   14.8 12.9 10.7 8.2 7.4 6.5 5.7 4.9 3.8 3.2 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.4 75.7%
Connecticut 59.9% 15.4% 44.5% 8   4.0 5.1 5.9 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.1 4.9 4.5 4.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.1 52.6%
Xavier 55.4% 11.1% 44.4% 10   3.3 4.2 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.6 49.9%
Seton Hall 50.9% 10.4% 40.5% 10   3.0 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.8 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 49.1 45.2%
Creighton 40.7% 7.9% 32.8% 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.6 4.1 4.0 4.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.3 35.6%
St. John's 37.6% 7.3% 30.3% 1.1 1.6 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.4 32.7%
Butler 31.5% 5.5% 26.0% 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.5 27.5%
Providence 33.7% 5.5% 28.2% 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.3 29.9%
Marquette 25.0% 3.9% 21.1% 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0 22.0%
Georgetown 21.6% 2.9% 18.7% 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.4 19.3%
DePaul 11.7% 1.6% 10.1% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.3 10.3%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Villanova 82.6% 2.4% 81.5% 63.4% 39.2% 22.7% 12.4% 6.7% 3.5%
Connecticut 59.9% 3.3% 58.3% 39.7% 20.5% 10.6% 5.1% 2.5% 1.1%
Xavier 55.4% 3.6% 53.8% 34.3% 16.8% 7.9% 3.5% 1.6% 0.7%
Seton Hall 50.9% 3.7% 49.1% 31.4% 15.2% 7.1% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5%
Creighton 40.7% 3.6% 38.9% 23.8% 10.7% 4.8% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%
St. John's 37.6% 3.3% 35.9% 21.4% 9.4% 4.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Butler 31.5% 3.3% 29.8% 17.3% 7.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Providence 33.7% 3.4% 32.0% 17.9% 7.3% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Marquette 25.0% 3.0% 23.5% 13.0% 5.1% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Georgetown 21.6% 2.7% 20.2% 10.5% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
DePaul 11.7% 1.7% 10.8% 5.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.5 0.3 3.7 15.3 31.3 29.8 15.1 4.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.3 0.4 5.0 18.2 32.7 28.0 12.6 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
2nd Round 98.5% 2.8 1.5 11.1 28.8 33.0 18.8 5.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 82.3% 1.4 17.7 40.4 30.4 9.8 1.6 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 53.8% 0.7 46.2 41.2 11.2 1.3 0.1 0.0
Final Four 29.5% 0.3 70.5 26.7 2.6 0.1
Final Game 15.0% 0.2 85.0 14.6 0.4
Champion 7.3% 0.1 92.7 7.3