Preseason Rankings
Big Ten
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Michigan 89.6%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +18.4      +9.1 5 +9.3 3 66.3 257 0.0 1 0.0 1
5 Purdue 83.6%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +16.7      +8.7 10 +8.1 8 65.3 276 0.0 1 0.0 1
8 Illinois 80.6%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 8 +16.1      +8.6 12 +7.5 12 74.2 72 0.0 1 0.0 1
12 Ohio St. 74.7%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +15.2      +9.1 4 +6.1 37 66.3 259 0.0 1 0.0 1
16 Maryland 69.0%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 9 +13.9      +6.4 27 +7.5 14 62.6 327 0.0 1 0.0 1
24 Michigan St. 62.4%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 9 +13.2      +6.1 29 +7.2 15 69.8 156 0.0 1 0.0 1
30 Indiana 59.4%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 10 +12.4      +5.5 40 +6.9 23 65.2 279 0.0 1 0.0 1
39 Iowa 47.0%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 11 +11.2      +7.9 16 +3.3 86 73.0 90 0.0 1 0.0 1
43 Wisconsin 45.6%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 11 +10.7      +3.2 83 +7.5 13 62.3 330 0.0 1 0.0 1
50 Rutgers 39.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +10.0      +3.3 81 +6.6 25 67.8 218 0.0 1 0.0 1
53 Penn St. 35.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +9.3      +4.9 50 +4.4 63 70.9 133 0.0 1 0.0 1
58 Northwestern 32.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 12 +9.1      +3.8 66 +5.3 49 69.7 158 0.0 1 0.0 1
75 Nebraska 25.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 13 +7.4      +3.4 80 +4.0 68 77.4 28 0.0 1 0.0 1
106 Minnesota 11.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 6 - 14 +4.7      +2.0 117 +2.7 99 73.1 89 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Michigan 3.9 27.5 16.5 12.5 9.9 7.9 6.4 5.2 4.1 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3
Purdue 4.6 20.2 14.9 12.3 10.3 8.6 7.4 6.5 5.1 4.3 3.5 2.7 2.2 1.3 0.7
Illinois 5.0 17.2 13.6 11.5 10.3 9.1 7.8 6.9 5.8 5.2 4.1 3.3 2.6 1.8 1.0
Ohio St. 5.2 14.4 13.3 11.9 10.5 9.4 8.2 7.1 6.1 5.3 4.5 3.6 2.8 1.9 1.0
Maryland 6.1 9.6 10.2 9.8 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.1 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.3 4.5 3.1 1.8
Michigan St. 6.3 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.3 7.6 7.1 6.5 5.5 4.6 3.6 2.4
Indiana 6.7 7.2 8.1 8.5 8.9 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.0 7.7 6.7 6.2 5.5 4.4 3.0
Iowa 7.7 4.5 5.7 6.4 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.3 7.5 6.3 4.5
Wisconsin 7.8 4.1 5.5 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.7 8.7 8.5 8.4 7.6 6.7 5.0
Rutgers 8.5 3.1 4.0 4.8 5.8 6.5 7.1 7.9 8.2 8.6 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 7.2
Penn St. 8.5 2.8 4.0 5.0 5.6 6.5 7.1 7.9 8.3 8.6 9.3 9.1 9.4 9.1 7.4
Northwestern 8.7 2.4 3.5 4.4 5.3 5.9 7.0 7.5 8.4 9.1 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 8.2
Nebraska 9.8 1.3 2.1 2.8 3.3 4.4 5.2 6.1 7.0 8.2 9.4 10.7 12.2 13.6 13.6
Minnesota 11.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.6 3.4 4.1 5.2 6.4 8.1 10.2 12.6 17.6 24.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.2 4.6 6.0 7.4 8.7 9.6 10.8 11.0 10.5 9.2 7.1 4.5 1.8
Purdue 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.3 4.5 5.9 7.2 8.7 9.4 10.0 10.4 10.0 8.8 7.4 5.3 2.9 1.1
Illinois 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.9 3.9 5.4 6.6 7.8 8.9 9.7 10.1 9.8 9.1 8.0 6.6 4.2 2.3 0.8
Ohio St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.0 4.4 5.8 6.9 8.2 9.2 10.2 10.2 9.6 9.0 7.6 5.5 3.7 1.9 0.5
Maryland 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.0 7.1 8.5 9.3 10.0 9.9 9.2 8.2 6.9 5.4 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.3
Michigan St. 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.9 6.5 7.7 8.6 9.5 10.0 9.6 8.7 7.8 6.4 4.9 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.3
Indiana 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.3 5.6 7.0 7.9 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.3 8.3 7.1 5.7 4.4 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.2
Iowa 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.0 4.4 6.1 7.5 8.8 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.0 7.8 6.7 5.5 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Wisconsin 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.2 4.6 6.2 7.8 8.9 9.6 9.9 9.4 8.8 7.9 6.6 5.2 3.9 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Rutgers 9 - 11 0.4 1.4 2.8 4.6 6.0 7.7 8.8 9.4 9.7 9.7 8.8 7.9 6.8 5.2 4.1 2.9 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Penn St. 9 - 11 0.4 1.3 2.8 4.5 6.1 7.9 8.8 9.4 9.9 9.6 9.0 7.8 6.6 5.2 4.0 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Northwestern 8 - 12 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.0 6.5 8.1 9.1 9.9 10.2 9.9 8.6 7.6 6.1 4.8 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 7 - 13 1.1 3.2 5.4 7.4 9.2 10.0 10.6 10.2 9.5 8.3 7.0 5.6 4.3 3.1 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Minnesota 6 - 14 2.8 6.4 9.2 10.9 11.6 11.1 10.5 9.1 7.6 6.2 4.7 3.5 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 27.5% 19.5 6.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Purdue 20.2% 13.7 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois 17.2% 11.6 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 14.4% 9.4 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Maryland 9.6% 5.9 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 8.9% 5.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana 7.2% 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa 4.5% 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 4.1% 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 3.1% 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 2.8% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 89.6% 21.2% 68.5% 1   28.9 17.8 11.4 8.3 6.4 5.0 3.4 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 86.9%
Purdue 83.6% 15.5% 68.0% 1   18.5 13.8 11.0 8.6 7.5 6.4 5.2 3.9 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 16.4 80.6%
Illinois 80.6% 13.7% 66.9% 2   15.8 12.7 10.8 8.7 7.6 6.5 5.1 4.2 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 19.4 77.5%
Ohio St. 74.7% 11.1% 63.6% 3   11.1 10.5 9.7 8.1 7.7 6.7 5.7 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 25.3 71.6%
Maryland 69.0% 8.2% 60.8% 4   7.9 8.3 8.4 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.0 4.9 3.9 3.1 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.0 66.2%
Michigan St. 62.4% 7.2% 55.3% 4   6.5 7.1 7.5 6.5 6.8 6.6 5.3 4.4 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 37.6 59.5%
Indiana 59.4% 5.7% 53.7% 6   4.4 5.3 6.1 6.0 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.5 4.4 3.5 3.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 40.6 56.9%
Iowa 47.0% 4.2% 42.8% 9   2.2 3.0 4.1 4.3 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 53.0 44.7%
Wisconsin 45.6% 3.8% 41.8% 11   2.2 3.0 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.5 3.7 3.2 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 54.4 43.4%
Rutgers 39.5% 2.9% 36.6% 1.5 2.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 60.5 37.7%
Penn St. 35.7% 2.5% 33.2% 1.2 1.8 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 3.6 3.3 3.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 64.3 34.1%
Northwestern 32.4% 2.2% 30.1% 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 67.6 30.8%
Nebraska 25.2% 1.4% 23.8% 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 74.8 24.2%
Minnesota 11.9% 0.5% 11.4% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 88.1 11.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 89.6% 1.9% 88.8% 76.1% 52.4% 33.0% 19.5% 11.0% 6.2%
Purdue 83.6% 2.3% 82.6% 66.7% 42.6% 25.2% 14.1% 7.6% 3.9%
Illinois 80.6% 2.6% 79.3% 62.8% 39.0% 22.3% 12.1% 6.4% 3.4%
Ohio St. 74.7% 2.9% 73.4% 55.9% 33.5% 18.5% 9.7% 5.1% 2.5%
Maryland 69.0% 3.4% 67.4% 48.9% 27.6% 14.4% 7.3% 3.6% 1.7%
Michigan St. 62.4% 3.8% 60.7% 43.7% 24.1% 12.4% 6.2% 3.0% 1.5%
Indiana 59.4% 3.5% 57.7% 39.2% 20.0% 9.9% 4.6% 2.0% 0.9%
Iowa 47.0% 3.3% 45.5% 29.3% 14.3% 6.8% 3.1% 1.4% 0.6%
Wisconsin 45.6% 3.8% 43.7% 28.0% 13.2% 6.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Rutgers 39.5% 3.2% 38.0% 23.7% 10.9% 5.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4%
Penn St. 35.7% 3.2% 34.1% 20.8% 9.3% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Northwestern 32.4% 3.3% 30.7% 18.4% 8.1% 3.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Nebraska 25.2% 2.7% 23.7% 13.3% 5.3% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2%
Minnesota 11.9% 1.8% 11.0% 5.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.6 0.0 0.6 3.8 14.3 29.4 29.8 16.4 4.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.4 0.0 0.9 5.3 17.4 31.1 27.7 13.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.8 18.4 28.3 25.8 14.0 4.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.7% 3.0 1.3 9.0 23.8 31.9 22.5 9.2 2.0 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 88.0% 1.6 12.0 34.7 34.3 15.3 3.2 0.4 0.0
Final Four 64.6% 0.9 35.4 45.5 16.8 2.2 0.1
Final Game 39.9% 0.4 60.1 35.8 4.1
Champion 22.4% 0.2 77.6 22.4