Preseason Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
134 Northeastern 23.7%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 +2.3      +0.2 165 +2.1 116 67.2 234 0.0 1 0.0 1
172 James Madison 15.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 0.0      +1.6 132 -1.6 228 77.1 31 0.0 1 0.0 1
175 Drexel 14.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 -0.1      +1.1 143 -1.2 215 61.7 337 0.0 1 0.0 1
181 Delaware 12.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 -0.6      -0.3 185 -0.3 179 65.9 265 0.0 1 0.0 1
192 Hofstra 11.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -1.3      +0.9 150 -2.2 243 69.4 168 0.0 1 0.0 1
217 Elon 7.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 15 9 - 9 -2.9      -1.7 233 -1.2 217 65.0 286 0.0 1 0.0 1
235 College of Charleston 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 8 - 10 -3.9      -1.1 212 -2.8 262 61.2 342 0.0 1 0.0 1
239 Towson 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 10 -4.3      -1.0 207 -3.3 277 64.6 295 0.0 1 0.0 1
266 UNC Wilmington 3.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -5.6      -1.3 220 -4.3 304 72.5 97 0.0 1 0.0 1
295 William & Mary 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -7.3      -4.3 303 -2.9 266 69.0 186 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northeastern 3.3 30.1 18.7 13.4 10.8 8.2 6.2 5.2 3.7 2.5 1.3
James Madison 4.2 18.1 15.5 13.4 11.9 10.2 9.1 7.7 6.2 4.8 3.1
Drexel 4.2 17.6 15.3 13.2 12.0 10.8 9.3 7.6 6.3 5.0 3.0
Delaware 4.5 15.4 14.3 13.1 11.8 10.6 10.0 8.5 7.2 5.4 3.6
Hofstra 4.7 13.1 13.0 12.1 11.9 11.1 10.2 9.5 8.1 6.6 4.4
Elon 5.4 8.8 10.0 10.7 10.6 11.2 11.1 10.7 10.2 9.3 7.4
College of Charleston 5.9 6.3 7.9 9.2 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.5 12.0 11.4 9.7
Towson 6.0 5.7 7.3 8.5 9.4 10.5 11.4 12.1 12.1 12.1 10.9
UNC Wilmington 6.6 3.8 5.3 6.7 8.2 9.2 10.6 12.1 13.5 14.9 15.6
William & Mary 7.3 2.2 3.5 4.7 6.2 7.7 9.0 11.8 14.2 17.8 22.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northeastern 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.2 3.1 4.4 5.8 7.3 8.9 10.1 11.0 11.2 10.5 9.5 7.3 4.6 1.8
James Madison 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.3 6.9 8.3 9.3 10.0 10.5 10.1 9.5 7.7 6.2 3.9 2.2 0.7
Drexel 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.1 5.5 6.7 8.1 9.7 10.6 10.3 10.2 9.3 7.7 5.6 3.9 2.2 0.7
Delaware 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.9 4.5 6.1 7.7 9.0 9.8 10.1 10.2 9.9 8.6 6.8 5.4 3.3 1.7 0.5
Hofstra 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.5 6.8 8.4 9.4 10.1 10.3 9.8 9.2 7.6 6.2 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.4
Elon 9 - 9 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.5 7.1 8.5 9.3 10.2 10.2 9.7 8.8 7.4 6.4 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2
College of Charleston 8 - 10 0.5 1.5 3.0 4.9 6.7 8.7 9.5 10.1 10.2 9.9 9.3 7.9 6.3 4.6 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1
Towson 8 - 10 0.6 1.8 3.5 5.6 7.2 8.9 9.7 10.3 10.5 9.6 8.6 7.4 5.9 4.3 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
UNC Wilmington 7 - 11 1.1 3.1 5.1 7.2 9.1 10.2 10.5 10.6 9.7 8.7 7.5 5.8 4.4 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
William & Mary 6 - 12 2.0 4.9 7.5 9.7 11.1 11.4 11.3 9.8 8.6 7.0 5.7 4.3 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northeastern 30.1% 22.2 6.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
James Madison 18.1% 12.3 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Drexel 17.6% 12.1 4.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Delaware 15.4% 10.4 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 13.1% 8.6 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Elon 8.8% 5.6 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
College of Charleston 6.3% 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Towson 5.7% 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 3.8% 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 2.2% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northeastern 23.7% 22.5% 1.2% 14   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.5 4.1 5.9 4.8 3.3 1.7 76.3 1.6%
James Madison 15.0% 14.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.3 3.6 3.2 2.0 85.0 0.5%
Drexel 14.4% 14.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 3.4 3.5 2.6 85.6 0.3%
Delaware 12.9% 12.7% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.3 87.1 0.2%
Hofstra 11.2% 10.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.7 2.6 2.0 88.8 0.3%
Elon 7.8% 7.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.8 92.2 0.1%
College of Charleston 5.9% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 94.1 0.1%
Towson 5.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.8 94.5 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.9% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 96.1 0.0%
William & Mary 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 97.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northeastern 23.7% 1.5% 23.0% 4.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 15.0% 1.2% 14.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 14.4% 1.5% 13.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 12.9% 1.1% 12.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 11.2% 1.4% 10.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 7.8% 1.1% 7.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 5.9% 1.1% 5.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 5.5% 1.1% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.9% 0.9% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 2.3% 0.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
1st Round 95.6% 1.0 4.4 93.9 1.7 0.0
2nd Round 12.7% 0.1 87.3 12.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0