Preseason Rankings
Horizon
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
115 Wright St. 30.1%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 16 - 6 +3.9      +2.3 109 +1.6 126 75.3 55 0.0 1 0.0 1
151 Cleveland St. 17.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 14 - 8 +1.0      +1.2 138 -0.3 178 65.1 283 0.0 1 0.0 1
166 Northern Kentucky 15.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 14 - 8 +0.2      +0.7 154 -0.5 190 63.0 319 0.0 1 0.0 1
205 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 12 - 10 -2.0      -0.2 180 -1.8 236 71.9 107 0.0 1 0.0 1
212 Detroit Mercy 7.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 12 - 10 -2.5      +2.4 107 -4.9 309 67.3 230 0.0 1 0.0 1
221 Oakland 6.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 11 - 11 -3.2      +0.2 164 -3.4 280 72.8 95 0.0 1 0.0 1
247 Purdue Fort Wayne 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 12 -4.8      -0.1 175 -4.7 307 72.0 105 0.0 1 0.0 1
253 Illinois-Chicago 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 12 -5.2      -4.0 292 -1.2 219 69.8 157 0.0 1 0.0 1
281 Youngstown St. 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 13 -6.4      -1.5 230 -5.0 312 67.4 224 0.0 1 0.0 1
282 Robert Morris 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 9 - 13 -6.5      -1.0 209 -5.5 323 66.7 246 0.0 1 0.0 1
316 Green Bay 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 8 - 14 -8.6      -2.8 260 -5.8 330 65.6 271 0.0 1 0.0 1
333 IUPUI 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 16 -11.4      -5.1 321 -6.3 338 76.6 37 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Wright St. 2.8 39.0 20.1 13.1 8.8 6.2 4.4 3.2 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2
Cleveland St. 3.9 21.4 17.8 14.1 11.8 9.4 7.5 5.9 4.5 3.3 2.2 1.5 0.7
Northern Kentucky 4.2 18.1 16.5 13.9 11.6 10.1 8.3 6.7 5.1 4.0 2.9 1.9 0.9
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5.3 10.1 11.6 11.9 11.6 10.9 9.8 8.9 7.8 6.4 5.4 3.6 2.1
Detroit Mercy 5.6 8.3 10.5 11.2 11.3 10.9 10.3 9.3 8.5 7.2 5.9 4.1 2.5
Oakland 5.9 7.2 9.2 10.3 10.8 10.6 10.3 9.7 9.2 7.8 6.6 5.0 3.2
Purdue Fort Wayne 6.7 4.3 6.2 7.7 8.9 9.7 10.3 10.4 10.3 10.0 9.0 7.9 5.3
Illinois-Chicago 6.9 4.0 5.9 7.3 8.2 9.1 9.9 10.5 10.5 10.6 9.7 8.3 6.0
Youngstown St. 7.5 2.4 4.2 5.5 6.8 8.1 9.2 10.3 10.6 11.5 11.7 11.1 8.6
Robert Morris 7.6 2.4 4.2 5.4 6.7 7.9 8.9 10.0 11.1 11.5 11.7 11.4 8.9
Green Bay 8.5 1.1 2.2 3.2 4.5 5.8 7.3 8.4 10.3 11.8 14.1 15.7 15.6
IUPUI 9.7 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.3 4.3 5.6 7.7 10.5 14.3 19.6 29.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
Wright St. 16 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.9 7.6 9.0 10.1 11.0 11.2 10.7 8.9 6.3 3.1
Cleveland St. 14 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.9 4.1 5.3 5.9 7.5 8.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.1 8.0 6.5 4.6 2.6 1.0
Northern Kentucky 14 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.7 3.4 4.7 5.8 7.0 8.2 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.2 8.4 7.1 5.4 3.8 2.1 0.6
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.6 4.5 5.7 6.6 7.9 8.3 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.0 5.9 4.3 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.2
Detroit Mercy 12 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.8 6.3 7.3 8.3 8.8 8.9 9.1 8.4 7.6 6.5 5.1 3.9 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2
Oakland 11 - 11 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.4 4.5 5.5 6.8 7.8 8.5 8.9 8.9 8.5 8.2 7.0 5.8 4.5 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2
Purdue Fort Wayne 10 - 12 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.0 6.1 7.3 8.3 8.8 9.0 9.0 8.3 7.3 6.5 5.3 4.0 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 10 - 12 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.0 5.2 6.9 7.7 8.5 8.9 9.2 8.5 8.0 7.0 5.9 4.9 3.8 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
Youngstown St. 9 - 13 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.9 5.4 6.9 8.0 8.7 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.0 7.1 6.1 4.8 3.8 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Robert Morris 9 - 13 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.0 5.4 7.1 8.0 8.7 9.2 9.1 8.7 8.0 6.9 5.8 4.7 3.8 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Green Bay 8 - 14 1.0 2.6 4.6 6.5 8.2 8.9 9.7 9.8 9.1 8.5 7.5 6.2 5.3 4.0 3.0 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
IUPUI 6 - 16 2.7 6.0 8.9 10.2 11.1 11.1 10.2 9.3 7.6 6.1 4.8 3.9 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wright St. 39.0% 30.3 7.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 21.4% 15.4 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Kentucky 18.1% 12.6 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10.1% 6.7 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 8.3% 5.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oakland 7.2% 4.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 4.3% 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 4.0% 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Youngstown St. 2.4% 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Robert Morris 2.4% 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 1.1% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
IUPUI 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wright St. 30.1% 29.2% 0.9% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.5 4.7 7.8 6.8 4.6 2.0 69.9 1.3%
Cleveland St. 17.4% 17.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.0 4.0 4.5 3.5 1.9 82.6 0.5%
Northern Kentucky 15.1% 14.8% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.6 3.1 4.0 3.3 2.1 84.9 0.3%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 8.9% 8.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.8 91.1 0.1%
Detroit Mercy 7.7% 7.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.9 92.3 0.1%
Oakland 6.8% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.6 93.2 0.1%
Purdue Fort Wayne 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 95.6 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 95.8 0.0%
Youngstown St. 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 97.2 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 97.4 0.0%
Green Bay 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 98.6 0.0%
IUPUI 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wright St. 30.1% 1.2% 29.5% 6.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 17.4% 0.9% 16.9% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 15.1% 1.0% 14.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 8.9% 0.9% 8.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 7.7% 1.0% 7.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 6.8% 0.9% 6.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 4.4% 0.7% 4.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 4.2% 0.8% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 2.8% 0.7% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.6% 0.6% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 1.4% 0.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.1 1.9 0.0
1st Round 96.2% 1.0 3.8 94.9 1.3 0.0
2nd Round 13.6% 0.1 86.4 13.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0