Preseason Rankings
Southwestern Athletic
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
211 Texas Southern 28.4%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 14 - 4 -2.5      -1.0 206 -1.5 227 75.9 49 0.0 1 0.0 1
232 Prairie View 21.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 13 - 5 -3.8      -3.7 287 -0.1 176 70.7 135 0.0 1 0.0 1
262 Jackson St. 16.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 12 - 6 -5.5      -6.5 341 +1.0 139 69.6 159 0.0 1 0.0 1
304 Florida A&M 10.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 11 - 7 -7.9      -6.0 336 -1.9 239 69.3 182 0.0 1 0.0 1
312 Grambling St. 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 8 -8.5      -5.8 332 -2.7 255 72.4 98 0.0 1 0.0 1
317 Southern 8.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 10 - 8 -8.8      -5.4 325 -3.4 279 74.2 71 0.0 1 0.0 1
340 Alabama A&M 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 9 - 9 -12.6      -10.4 353 -2.2 242 67.4 226 0.0 1 0.0 1
347 Alcorn St. 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 23 7 - 11 -14.5      -7.6 347 -6.9 341 71.4 120 0.0 1 0.0 1
350 Bethune-Cookman 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 21 6 - 12 -16.4      -9.0 350 -7.5 346 69.3 178 0.0 1 0.0 1
351 Alabama St. 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 23 7 - 11 -16.5      -11.0 354 -5.5 322 72.9 94 0.0 1 0.0 1
355 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 24 5 - 13 -20.4      -12.9 357 -7.5 347 68.1 212 0.0 1 0.0 1
358 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 26 3 - 15 -24.4      -12.3 356 -12.1 358 77.3 29 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Texas Southern 2.7 35.9 21.7 14.6 10.5 7.2 4.6 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Prairie View 3.2 27.8 20.2 16.1 12.0 8.8 6.1 4.1 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
Jackson St. 3.6 22.2 18.2 15.9 13.2 10.2 7.7 5.3 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1
Florida A&M 4.6 13.5 14.4 13.8 12.5 11.4 10.0 8.0 6.4 4.8 3.1 1.5 0.5
Grambling St. 5.2 8.7 10.2 12.0 12.7 12.5 12.0 10.7 8.4 6.4 4.1 1.8 0.5
Southern 5.3 8.0 9.8 11.4 12.2 12.8 12.1 11.0 9.0 6.7 4.3 2.2 0.6
Alabama A&M 6.1 3.9 6.8 9.0 10.8 12.4 12.7 12.5 10.9 8.8 6.4 3.9 1.9
Alcorn St. 7.4 1.7 3.0 4.4 6.4 8.3 10.9 13.0 14.1 13.9 11.6 8.3 4.3
Bethune-Cookman 8.3 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.4 6.1 8.0 10.5 12.0 14.5 15.9 14.6 8.0
Alabama St. 7.9 0.9 2.2 3.7 5.4 7.5 9.7 11.8 13.5 14.6 13.6 10.7 6.3
Arkansas Pine Bluff 9.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.3 6.7 9.9 14.4 19.7 22.5 17.6
Mississippi Valley 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.7 8.3 14.8 24.2 42.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas Southern 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.7 5.6 8.0 10.4 12.8 14.6 14.4 12.9 8.9 4.1
Prairie View 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.5 5.0 7.1 9.5 11.7 13.5 13.8 12.4 10.1 6.4 2.6
Jackson St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.6 6.7 8.3 10.7 12.3 13.1 12.4 10.8 8.1 4.8 1.6
Florida A&M 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.6 4.0 5.6 7.1 8.9 9.9 11.0 11.3 10.8 9.4 7.6 5.1 2.8 0.9
Grambling St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.7 7.4 9.2 10.6 11.5 11.6 10.7 9.3 7.0 4.9 2.9 1.3 0.3
Southern 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.9 5.8 7.8 9.7 10.9 11.6 11.4 10.3 8.9 6.7 4.6 2.4 1.2 0.3
Alabama A&M 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.8 7.7 9.7 11.0 11.7 11.4 10.3 8.6 6.6 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1
Alcorn St. 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.0 5.4 7.9 10.2 11.3 12.4 11.5 10.4 8.6 6.6 4.5 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 6 - 12 1.3 3.5 6.4 9.0 10.8 11.7 11.6 10.8 9.5 7.8 6.3 4.4 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 7 - 11 0.5 2.1 4.4 6.7 9.5 11.1 12.2 11.5 11.0 9.4 7.4 5.5 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 5 - 13 2.8 7.2 11.6 14.1 15.0 13.6 11.3 8.7 6.3 4.3 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 3 - 15 10.9 17.3 18.3 16.5 13.0 9.1 6.2 4.0 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas Southern 35.9% 25.3 8.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 27.8% 18.7 7.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 22.2% 14.6 5.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 13.5% 8.2 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
Grambling St. 8.7% 5.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern 8.0% 4.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 3.9% 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas Southern 28.4% 28.4% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.8 20.3 71.6 0.0%
Prairie View 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 16.1 78.3 0.0%
Jackson St. 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 13.2 83.7 0.0%
Florida A&M 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 8.5 90.0 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 7.4 91.4 0.0%
Southern 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 6.9 92.0 0.0%
Alabama A&M 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0 96.9 0.0%
Alcorn St. 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 98.3 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Texas Southern 28.4% 15.0% 22.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 21.7% 12.6% 16.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 16.3% 10.4% 11.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 10.0% 6.9% 6.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.6% 6.1% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 8.0% 5.8% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 3.1% 2.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 1.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 70.0% 0.7 30.0 70.0 0.0
2nd Round 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0