IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Harvard
Ivy League
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.5	#160
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.3	#170
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.2	#179

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.6	#158

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	20.0%	29.4%	14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.5%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.5	13.0	14.1

.500 or above	69.0%	86.9%	59.1%
.500 or above in Conference	76.7%	86.9%	71.0%
Conference Champion	25.0%	35.3%	19.2%
Last Place in Conference	4.5%	1.8%	6.0%

First Four	0.5%	0.4%	0.6%
First Round	19.7%	29.2%	14.5%
Second Round	3.0%	5.5%	1.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.7%	1.4%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 35.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 4	4 - 8
Quad 4	10 - 3	14 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2021	146	@ Iona	L	69-73	36%
Nov 17, 2021	244	@ Albany	W	72-70	58%
Nov 22, 2021	227	@ Siena	W	69-68	54%
Nov 24, 2021	105	Colgate	L	77-78	45%
Nov 27, 2021	134	Northeastern	W	70-69	54%
Dec 01, 2021	101	Rhode Island	L	71-73	44%
Dec 04, 2021	119	@ Massachusetts	L	73-79	31%
Dec 19, 2021	321	Holy Cross	W	80-67	85%
Dec 21, 2021	332	Howard	W	86-71	88%
Dec 29, 2021	4	@ Kansas	L	62-82	6%
Jan 02, 2022	168	Princeton	W	74-71	61%
Jan 07, 2022	237	Brown	W	73-66	72%
Jan 09, 2022	126	Yale	W	73-72	52%
Jan 15, 2022	315	@ Columbia	W	73-67	69%
Jan 17, 2022	270	@ Dartmouth	W	71-68	61%
Jan 22, 2022	290	@ Cornell	W	74-70	64%
Jan 28, 2022	187	Penn	W	74-69	64%
Feb 04, 2022	237	@ Brown	W	70-69	55%
Feb 05, 2022	126	@ Yale	L	70-75	34%
Feb 12, 2022	187	@ Penn	L	71-72	45%
Feb 18, 2022	315	Columbia	W	76-64	83%
Feb 19, 2022	290	Cornell	W	77-67	80%
Feb 26, 2022	168	@ Princeton	L	71-74	42%
Mar 05, 2022	270	Dartmouth	W	74-65	77%
Projected Record						14 - 10	9 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ivy League Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st									0.0	0.6	3.2	6.5	7.5	5.2	2.0		25.0	1st
2nd								0.1	1.3	5.4	7.7	4.6	1.0				20.0	2nd
3rd							0.1	1.9	6.4	6.3	2.1	0.2					17.1	3rd
4th						0.2	1.9	5.7	4.5	0.9	0.0						13.2	4th
5th				0.0	0.2	1.9	4.6	3.1	0.4	0.0							10.2	5th
6th			0.0	0.2	1.7	3.5	1.8	0.2	0.0								7.3	6th
7th		0.0	0.4	1.4	1.9	1.0	0.1										4.8	7th
8th	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.3	0.0											2.5	8th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.3	2.4	4.1	6.5	8.5	10.9	12.7	13.2	13.0	11.2	8.5	5.2	2.0			Total

Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	100.0%	2.0		2.0
13-1	100.0%	5.2		5.0	0.3
12-2	88.6%	7.5		5.7	1.8	0.0
11-3	57.6%	6.5		3.3	2.8	0.4	0.0
10-4	24.3%	3.2		0.8	1.5	0.7	0.1
9-5	4.3%	0.6		0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
8-6	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	25.0%	25.0		16.7	6.6	1.4	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	2.0%		100.0%	100.0%		11.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-1	5.2%		97.9%	97.7%	0.2%	12.9					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.0	1.8	1.3	0.4	0.0	0.1		9.3%
12-2	8.5%		78.7%	77.9%	0.8%	13.7							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	2.0	2.3	1.3	0.3	1.8		3.5%
11-3	11.2%		41.0%	40.5%	0.5%	14.3												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	1.5	0.6	6.6		0.9%
10-4	13.0%		11.3%	11.2%	0.1%	14.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	11.5		0.1%
9-5	13.2%		0.9%	0.9%	0.0%	15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	13.1		0.0%
8-6	12.7%																							12.7
7-7	10.9%																							10.9
6-8	8.5%																							8.5
5-9	6.5%																							6.5
4-10	4.1%																							4.1
3-11	2.4%																							2.4
2-12	1.3%																							1.3
1-13	0.5%																							0.5
0-14	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		20.0%	19.8%	0.1%	13.5		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6	2.4	5.2	5.6	4.0	1.4	80.0		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	4.6	2.3	12.7	13.1	22.3	23.1	13.1	2.7	10.4			0.4
Lose Out	0.0%