Preseason Rankings
Stanford
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#71
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#117
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 2.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.6% 6.3% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 10.9% 12.3% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.6% 32.7% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.8% 29.6% 7.8%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 8.8
.500 or above 54.4% 59.0% 23.0%
.500 or above in Conference 41.5% 44.7% 19.5%
Conference Champion 3.9% 4.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 11.9% 9.9% 25.6%
First Four3.6% 3.9% 1.5%
First Round27.8% 30.7% 7.8%
Second Round15.8% 17.5% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen6.3% 7.1% 1.0%
Elite Eight2.7% 3.0% 0.5%
Final Four1.1% 1.2% 0.2%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 87.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 46 - 13
Quad 34 - 211 - 14
Quad 45 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 185   Tarleton St. W 72-60 87%    
  Nov 12, 2021 124   @ Santa Clara W 75-73 56%    
  Nov 15, 2021 322   San Jose St. W 87-67 96%    
  Nov 17, 2021 189   Valparaiso W 76-64 85%    
  Nov 20, 2021 9   @ Baylor L 66-77 17%    
  Nov 23, 2021 286   N.C. A&T W 83-65 93%    
  Nov 28, 2021 47   @ Colorado L 65-70 33%    
  Dec 12, 2021 19   Oregon L 70-73 41%    
  Dec 16, 2021 270   Dartmouth W 77-60 92%    
  Dec 19, 2021 7   Texas L 68-76 25%    
  Dec 22, 2021 156   Wyoming W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 02, 2022 113   California W 70-63 71%    
  Jan 06, 2022 3   UCLA L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 08, 2022 20   USC L 67-70 42%    
  Jan 12, 2022 69   @ Washington St. L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 15, 2022 95   @ Washington L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 20, 2022 31   Arizona L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 22, 2022 61   Arizona St. W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 27, 2022 20   @ USC L 64-73 25%    
  Jan 29, 2022 3   @ UCLA L 62-74 17%    
  Feb 03, 2022 69   Washington St. W 71-68 58%    
  Feb 06, 2022 95   Washington W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 10, 2022 19   @ Oregon L 67-76 25%    
  Feb 12, 2022 70   @ Oregon St. L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 17, 2022 88   Utah W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 19, 2022 47   Colorado W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 26, 2022 113   @ California W 67-66 53%    
  Mar 03, 2022 31   @ Arizona L 67-74 29%    
  Mar 05, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. L 75-79 38%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.8 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.0 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.5 11th
12th 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.6 12th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.2 5.7 7.1 8.7 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.1 8.3 6.9 5.7 4.3 3.0 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 93.6% 0.6    0.5 0.1
17-3 77.6% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 48.4% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 23.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 37.4% 62.6% 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.2% 99.8% 29.6% 70.2% 2.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-4 2.1% 99.9% 23.0% 76.9% 3.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 3.0% 99.5% 16.2% 83.3% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-6 4.3% 96.3% 12.5% 83.8% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 95.8%
13-7 5.7% 87.8% 8.9% 78.9% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 86.6%
12-8 6.9% 74.7% 6.1% 68.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 73.0%
11-9 8.3% 53.3% 4.1% 49.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 51.3%
10-10 9.1% 28.7% 2.2% 26.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.5 27.1%
9-11 9.9% 8.8% 1.1% 7.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.1 7.8%
8-12 9.7% 1.8% 0.5% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 1.3%
7-13 9.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.2%
6-14 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 8.6
5-15 7.1% 7.1
4-16 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.7
3-17 4.2% 4.2
2-18 2.5% 2.5
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 29.6% 3.9% 25.7% 7.5 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.4 26.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 47.5 52.5
Lose Out 0.0%