Preseason Rankings
Troy
Sun Belt
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#243
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.5#165
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#278
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#213
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 10.6% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.8 14.8
.500 or above 36.2% 70.5% 33.6%
.500 or above in Conference 38.3% 63.9% 36.3%
Conference Champion 3.8% 11.1% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 16.1% 4.6% 17.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round3.6% 10.4% 3.1%
Second Round0.3% 1.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 7.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 410 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 64   @ Butler L 58-74 7%    
  Nov 16, 2021 164   Jacksonville St. L 68-70 44%    
  Nov 19, 2021 313   North Dakota W 73-69 64%    
  Nov 20, 2021 349   Tennessee Martin W 77-66 83%    
  Nov 22, 2021 159   @ Florida Atlantic L 66-74 25%    
  Nov 28, 2021 33   @ Florida L 61-81 5%    
  Dec 05, 2021 325   SE Louisiana W 76-68 75%    
  Dec 11, 2021 301   @ Tennessee Tech W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 14, 2021 340   Alabama A&M W 71-60 81%    
  Dec 22, 2021 155   @ Mercer L 67-75 25%    
  Dec 30, 2021 174   @ Texas St. L 60-68 27%    
  Jan 01, 2022 224   @ Texas Arlington L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 06, 2022 190   Coastal Carolina L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 08, 2022 182   Appalachian St. L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 13, 2022 245   Georgia Southern W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 15, 2022 121   Georgia St. L 72-77 36%    
  Jan 20, 2022 269   @ Louisiana Monroe L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 22, 2022 171   @ Louisiana L 71-79 27%    
  Jan 27, 2022 214   @ South Alabama L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 29, 2022 214   South Alabama W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 03, 2022 121   @ Georgia St. L 69-80 20%    
  Feb 05, 2022 245   @ Georgia Southern L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 10, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 12, 2022 277   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-67 64%    
  Feb 17, 2022 182   @ Appalachian St. L 63-70 29%    
  Feb 19, 2022 190   @ Coastal Carolina L 71-77 31%    
  Feb 24, 2022 224   Texas Arlington W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 174   Texas St. L 63-65 46%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 11.0 11th
12th 0.7 2.0 3.2 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 10.5 12th
Total 0.7 2.1 4.2 6.2 7.9 9.4 10.1 10.8 10.3 9.3 8.3 6.8 5.3 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 99.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 91.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 73.2% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 42.8% 1.1    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.5% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 68.9% 64.2% 4.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2%
17-1 0.3% 48.2% 45.7% 2.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.6%
16-2 0.7% 40.8% 39.2% 1.6% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.6%
15-3 1.4% 28.1% 28.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-4 2.5% 20.8% 20.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.0
13-5 3.7% 15.7% 15.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.1
12-6 5.3% 10.3% 10.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 4.7
11-7 6.8% 7.5% 7.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 6.3
10-8 8.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.9
9-9 9.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.0
8-10 10.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.2
7-11 10.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.7
6-12 10.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.1
5-13 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.4
4-14 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.9
3-15 6.2% 6.2
2-16 4.2% 4.2
1-17 2.1% 2.1
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%