Preseason Rankings
Alabama
Southeastern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#15
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace80.5#10
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.4% 3.8% 0.5%
#1 Seed 12.6% 14.1% 2.5%
Top 2 Seed 24.2% 26.8% 6.2%
Top 4 Seed 41.8% 45.6% 15.5%
Top 6 Seed 55.4% 59.7% 25.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.5% 81.4% 50.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.2% 77.6% 46.6%
Average Seed 4.8 4.6 6.5
.500 or above 86.0% 89.5% 62.1%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 84.4% 62.2%
Conference Champion 21.1% 23.0% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.9% 4.0%
First Four3.4% 3.2% 4.3%
First Round75.9% 79.9% 48.3%
Second Round57.0% 61.0% 29.6%
Sweet Sixteen33.3% 36.1% 13.6%
Elite Eight18.0% 19.8% 6.1%
Final Four9.2% 10.2% 2.4%
Championship Game4.7% 5.2% 0.8%
National Champion2.3% 2.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 87.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 9
Quad 36 - 117 - 10
Quad 43 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 93   Louisiana Tech W 86-74 87%    
  Nov 12, 2021 99   South Dakota St. W 92-80 87%    
  Nov 16, 2021 214   South Alabama W 88-68 96%    
  Nov 19, 2021 221   Oakland W 93-72 96%    
  Nov 25, 2021 146   Iona W 84-71 86%    
  Dec 03, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 86-92 30%    
  Dec 11, 2021 13   Houston W 75-72 59%    
  Dec 14, 2021 11   @ Memphis L 79-82 39%    
  Dec 18, 2021 164   Jacksonville St. W 85-68 92%    
  Dec 20, 2021 51   Colorado St. W 83-78 66%    
  Dec 29, 2021 23   Tennessee W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 05, 2022 33   @ Florida L 79-80 49%    
  Jan 08, 2022 84   @ Missouri W 81-76 66%    
  Jan 11, 2022 26   Auburn W 86-81 66%    
  Jan 15, 2022 56   @ Mississippi St. W 77-74 58%    
  Jan 19, 2022 36   LSU W 88-82 69%    
  Jan 22, 2022 84   Missouri W 84-73 81%    
  Jan 25, 2022 133   @ Georgia W 91-82 78%    
  Jan 29, 2022 9   Baylor W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 01, 2022 26   @ Auburn L 83-84 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 14   Kentucky W 81-78 59%    
  Feb 09, 2022 66   @ Mississippi W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 17   Arkansas W 87-83 62%    
  Feb 16, 2022 56   Mississippi St. W 80-71 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 14   @ Kentucky L 78-81 41%    
  Feb 22, 2022 92   @ Vanderbilt W 83-77 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 104   South Carolina W 92-79 85%    
  Mar 02, 2022 94   Texas A&M W 80-68 83%    
  Mar 05, 2022 36   @ LSU L 85-86 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.3 5.6 5.8 3.8 1.5 21.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.2 5.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.1 4.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.9 1.4 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 3.6 1.6 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.7 6.0 7.7 9.1 10.6 11.4 11.3 10.6 9.0 6.5 3.9 1.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 98.7% 3.8    3.6 0.2 0.0
16-2 88.6% 5.8    4.4 1.3 0.1
15-3 62.9% 5.6    3.2 2.1 0.3 0.0
14-4 31.4% 3.3    1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.4% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.1% 21.1 14.0 5.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 100.0% 61.4% 38.6% 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.9% 100.0% 50.5% 49.5% 1.3 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.5% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.6 3.5 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.0% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 2.2 2.9 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.6% 99.9% 24.6% 75.3% 3.1 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 11.3% 99.6% 18.0% 81.5% 4.2 0.5 1.6 2.4 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-6 11.4% 97.6% 12.6% 85.0% 5.6 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.2%
11-7 10.6% 93.1% 7.4% 85.6% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 92.5%
10-8 9.1% 78.4% 3.6% 74.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 77.6%
9-9 7.7% 56.6% 2.4% 54.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.4 55.6%
8-10 6.0% 28.6% 1.4% 27.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.3 27.6%
7-11 4.7% 10.2% 0.9% 9.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.2 9.5%
6-12 3.1% 2.6% 0.6% 2.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 2.0%
5-13 2.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.1%
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 77.5% 15.9% 61.5% 4.8 12.6 11.6 9.0 8.6 7.4 6.3 5.5 4.6 3.8 2.9 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 22.5 73.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 93.4 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 82.1 17.9