IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Austin Peay
Ohio Valley
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.7	#285
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.6	#249
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.3	#249

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.4	#306

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.7%	6.4%	2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	14.6	15.3

.500 or above	26.2%	55.5%	21.3%
.500 or above in Conference	48.2%	69.9%	44.5%
Conference Champion	2.6%	6.4%	1.9%
Last Place in Conference	7.2%	2.0%	8.1%

First Four	0.7%	0.8%	0.6%
First Round	2.4%	6.1%	1.8%
Second Round	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 6	11 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	140	@ Southern Illinois	L	62-74	14%
Nov 16, 2021	247	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	73-78	33%
Nov 20, 2021	87	@ Dayton	L	60-76	8%
Nov 26, 2021	332	@ Howard	W	79-78	55%
Nov 29, 2021	80	@ TCU	L	62-79	8%
Dec 11, 2021	280	@ North Florida	L	71-74	40%
Dec 14, 2021	177	@ South Florida	L	64-73	22%
Dec 18, 2021	92	@ Vanderbilt	L	65-81	10%
Dec 22, 2021	100	Western Kentucky	L	67-76	23%
Dec 30, 2021	349	Tennessee Martin	W	78-66	83%
Jan 01, 2022	268	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	70-74	38%
Jan 06, 2022	328	SIU Edwardsville	W	74-67	70%
Jan 08, 2022	158	Morehead St.	L	66-70	37%
Jan 13, 2022	81	@ Belmont	L	67-84	9%
Jan 15, 2022	330	Eastern Illinois	W	76-69	72%
Jan 20, 2022	349	@ Tennessee Martin	W	75-69	68%
Jan 22, 2022	289	@ Tennessee St.	L	73-76	42%
Jan 27, 2022	81	Belmont	L	70-81	20%
Jan 29, 2022	301	@ Tennessee Tech	L	72-74	43%
Feb 03, 2022	125	Murray St.	L	66-73	30%
Feb 05, 2022	158	@ Morehead St.	L	63-73	21%
Feb 10, 2022	268	Southeast Missouri St.	W	73-71	57%
Feb 12, 2022	289	Tennessee St.	W	76-73	60%
Feb 17, 2022	125	@ Murray St.	L	63-76	16%
Feb 19, 2022	301	Tennessee Tech	W	75-71	62%
Feb 24, 2022	328	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	71-70	52%
Feb 26, 2022	330	@ Eastern Illinois	W	73-72	54%
Projected Record						11 - 16	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.1		2.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.0	2.1	1.9	0.8	0.2				6.2	2nd
3rd										0.1	0.9	2.8	3.8	2.4	0.5	0.0					10.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.5	2.4	4.9	4.8	2.0	0.3	0.0						14.8	4th
5th							0.1	0.8	3.6	5.9	3.8	1.2	0.1								15.4	5th
6th						0.1	1.3	4.5	5.3	2.8	0.5	0.0									14.6	6th
7th					0.1	1.7	4.5	4.6	1.6	0.2	0.0										12.8	7th
8th			0.0	0.3	2.1	4.0	3.3	1.0	0.1	0.0											10.8	8th
9th		0.1	0.7	2.2	2.9	1.8	0.4	0.0													8.0	9th
10th	0.2	0.8	1.3	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0														4.3	10th

Total	0.2	0.9	2.0	3.8	5.6	7.7	9.5	10.9	11.1	11.3	10.2	9.0	6.8	5.1	2.9	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.1			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.3		0.2	0.0
16-2	78.7%	0.6		0.5	0.1	0.0
15-3	49.8%	0.9		0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-4	17.5%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.0%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0			0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.6%	2.6		1.4	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		69.9%	61.3%	8.6%	12.6							0.0			0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		22.2%
17-1	0.3%		41.1%	41.1%		13.5										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
16-2	0.8%		31.0%	30.7%	0.3%	14.1												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.5		0.4%
15-3	1.8%		21.1%	21.1%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	1.4
14-4	2.9%		14.9%	14.9%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	2.5
13-5	5.1%		10.9%	10.9%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	4.5
12-6	6.8%		4.8%	4.8%		15.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	6.5
11-7	9.0%		3.6%	3.6%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.3	8.7
10-8	10.2%		1.5%	1.5%		15.9																0.0	0.1	10.0
9-9	11.3%		0.7%	0.7%		15.9																0.0	0.1	11.3
8-10	11.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
7-11	10.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.9
6-12	9.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.5
5-13	7.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.7
4-14	5.6%																							5.6
3-15	3.8%																							3.8
2-16	2.0%																							2.0
1-17	0.9%																							0.9
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		2.7%	2.7%	0.0%	15.1							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.2	97.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%