Preseason Rankings
Ball St.
Mid-American
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#199
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.5#67
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#228
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#187
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.6% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 14.4
.500 or above 45.4% 62.1% 29.1%
.500 or above in Conference 48.5% 60.8% 36.4%
Conference Champion 3.4% 5.3% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 2.9% 8.7%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round3.5% 5.4% 1.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Away) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 245   @ Georgia Southern L 70-71 49%    
  Nov 13, 2021 326   Nebraska Omaha W 83-72 85%    
  Nov 18, 2021 273   Florida International W 79-75 64%    
  Nov 19, 2021 129   Weber St. L 78-82 35%    
  Nov 21, 2021 119   Massachusetts L 76-81 33%    
  Nov 27, 2021 176   Indiana St. W 72-71 55%    
  Dec 01, 2021 274   @ Western Illinois W 81-80 54%    
  Dec 08, 2021 37   @ Xavier L 67-83 9%    
  Dec 18, 2021 223   @ Illinois St. L 73-75 45%    
  Dec 21, 2021 330   Eastern Illinois W 81-69 83%    
  Dec 28, 2021 314   @ Northern Illinois W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 01, 2022 150   Bowling Green L 78-79 49%    
  Jan 04, 2022 132   Kent St. L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 11, 2022 128   @ Akron L 70-78 27%    
  Jan 14, 2022 83   Buffalo L 78-84 32%    
  Jan 18, 2022 114   @ Toledo L 73-82 24%    
  Jan 22, 2022 279   @ Central Michigan W 81-80 55%    
  Jan 25, 2022 152   Miami (OH) W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 29, 2022 284   Western Michigan W 76-68 73%    
  Feb 01, 2022 91   @ Ohio L 71-82 19%    
  Feb 05, 2022 114   Toledo L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 08, 2022 279   Central Michigan W 84-77 72%    
  Feb 12, 2022 83   @ Buffalo L 75-87 18%    
  Feb 15, 2022 314   Northern Illinois W 76-66 78%    
  Feb 19, 2022 150   @ Bowling Green L 75-81 31%    
  Feb 22, 2022 132   @ Kent St. L 73-80 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 300   Eastern Michigan W 77-68 75%    
  Mar 01, 2022 128   Akron L 73-75 45%    
  Mar 04, 2022 284   @ Western Michigan W 73-71 55%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.7 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.3 6.1 7.5 9.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.3 8.2 6.9 5.4 3.8 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 89.6% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
17-3 63.1% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 34.8% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 11.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 76.9% 55.4% 21.5% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.1%
19-1 0.3% 59.4% 39.4% 20.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.9%
18-2 0.8% 42.7% 33.6% 9.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 13.7%
17-3 1.5% 29.7% 26.7% 3.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.2%
16-4 2.4% 17.9% 16.9% 1.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.2%
15-5 3.8% 12.7% 12.6% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4 0.1%
14-6 5.4% 9.2% 9.1% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.9 0.0%
13-7 6.9% 5.7% 5.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.5
12-8 8.2% 4.3% 4.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.9
11-9 9.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.1
10-10 9.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7
9-11 9.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.8
8-12 9.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0 9.8
7-13 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
6-14 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
5-15 6.1% 6.1
4-16 4.3% 4.3
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.7% 3.5% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 96.3 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 22.2 51.9 25.9
Lose Out 0.0%