IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.3	#165
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.6	#312
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.4	#136

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.1	#210

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	14.8	15.4

.500 or above	48.0%	86.6%	46.7%
.500 or above in Conference	81.3%	96.6%	80.8%
Conference Champion	18.9%	42.2%	18.1%
Last Place in Conference	1.5%	0.1%	1.6%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 5
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 7
Quad 3	3 - 4	4 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 3	13 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	5	@ Purdue	L	59-78	3%
Nov 13, 2021	125	@ Murray St.	L	65-71	30%
Nov 17, 2021	49	@ St. Mary's	L	58-71	13%
Nov 19, 2021	1	@ Gonzaga	L	67-91	2%
Nov 22, 2021	3	UCLA	L	58-75	7%
Nov 23, 2021	279	Central Michigan	W	79-72	71%
Nov 30, 2021	32	@ West Virginia	L	64-79	11%
Dec 15, 2021	186	@ South Dakota	L	72-74	44%
Dec 18, 2021	152	@ Miami (OH)	L	67-71	38%
Dec 21, 2021	82	Loyola Marymount	L	67-71	39%
Dec 29, 2021	157	@ Bradley	L	66-69	40%
Jan 04, 2022	164	@ Jacksonville St.	L	66-69	41%
Jan 08, 2022	180	Eastern Kentucky	W	80-76	62%
Jan 11, 2022	334	Central Arkansas	W	82-67	88%
Jan 15, 2022	226	@ Lipscomb	W	69-68	53%
Jan 18, 2022	318	North Alabama	W	78-66	83%
Jan 22, 2022	302	Jacksonville	W	75-64	81%
Jan 27, 2022	251	@ Stetson	W	71-69	57%
Jan 29, 2022	222	@ Florida Gulf Coast	W	73-72	52%
Feb 03, 2022	110	Liberty	L	64-65	47%
Feb 05, 2022	311	Kennesaw St.	W	76-64	82%
Feb 09, 2022	280	@ North Florida	W	73-69	61%
Feb 12, 2022	318	@ North Alabama	W	75-69	69%
Feb 16, 2022	334	@ Central Arkansas	W	79-70	75%
Feb 19, 2022	164	Jacksonville St.	W	69-66	59%
Feb 23, 2022	226	Lipscomb	W	72-65	70%
Feb 26, 2022	180	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	77-79	43%
Projected Record						13 - 14	10 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.3	1.8	4.3	6.1	4.6	1.7		18.9	1st
2nd										0.0	0.6	3.1	6.1	5.1	1.7	0.1			16.8	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.5	3.4	6.1	3.7	0.8	0.0				14.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.4	3.1	5.4	3.0	0.3	0.0					12.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	2.3	4.7	2.5	0.3	0.0						10.0	5th
6th							0.1	1.6	4.0	2.3	0.2	0.0							8.2	6th
7th						0.1	0.9	2.9	2.0	0.2	0.0								6.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.6	2.3	1.8	0.3	0.0									5.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.5	1.3	0.3	0.0										3.5	9th
10th			0.0	0.2	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.0											2.5	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0												1.4	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0													0.8	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.9	3.3	5.0	6.9	9.0	11.0	12.0	12.7	12.0	10.2	7.9	4.7	1.7			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	1.7		1.7
15-1	97.3%	4.6		4.0	0.6
14-2	77.7%	6.1		3.9	2.0	0.2
13-3	42.5%	4.3		1.8	2.0	0.6	0.0
12-4	15.0%	1.8		0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
11-5	2.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	18.9%	18.9		11.8	5.5	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	1.7%																							1.7
15-1	4.7%																							4.7
14-2	7.9%		0.0%	0.0%		12.0													0.0					7.9
13-3	10.2%		0.1%	0.1%		14.8															0.0	0.0		10.2
12-4	12.0%		0.2%	0.2%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.0
11-5	12.7%		0.3%	0.3%		15.2														0.0		0.0	0.0	12.7
10-6	12.0%		0.3%	0.3%		15.4													0.0			0.0	0.0	12.0
9-7	11.0%		0.4%	0.4%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	10.9
8-8	9.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
7-9	6.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.8
6-10	5.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
5-11	3.3%																							3.3
4-12	1.9%																							1.9
3-13	1.0%																							1.0
2-14	0.4%																							0.4
1-15	0.1%																							0.1
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	15.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	99.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%