Preseason Rankings
Belmont
Ohio Valley
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#81
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.9#62
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#53
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#112
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 3.7% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 3.4% 7.0% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.3% 59.0% 40.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.4% 7.6% 1.2%
Average Seed 12.2 11.3 13.2
.500 or above 96.2% 99.3% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 99.6% 98.0%
Conference Champion 58.1% 68.6% 50.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.5% 1.8% 1.2%
First Round47.7% 58.2% 40.2%
Second Round13.3% 20.1% 8.4%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 8.1% 2.7%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.8% 0.6%
Final Four0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 35 - 26 - 6
Quad 416 - 223 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 91   @ Ohio L 77-79 42%    
  Nov 13, 2021 198   Evansville W 76-64 85%    
  Nov 15, 2021 109   Furman W 79-74 68%    
  Nov 19, 2021 311   @ Kennesaw St. W 82-70 86%    
  Nov 22, 2021 36   @ LSU L 78-86 25%    
  Nov 25, 2021 73   Drake L 74-75 47%    
  Dec 02, 2021 226   Lipscomb W 81-68 86%    
  Dec 05, 2021 255   @ Samford W 88-79 78%    
  Dec 07, 2021 79   @ Saint Louis L 74-77 40%    
  Dec 15, 2021 135   Chattanooga W 79-71 73%    
  Dec 30, 2021 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 82-68 87%    
  Jan 01, 2022 330   @ Eastern Illinois W 85-70 88%    
  Jan 06, 2022 268   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-69 89%    
  Jan 08, 2022 349   @ Tennessee Martin W 87-67 94%    
  Jan 13, 2022 285   Austin Peay W 84-67 91%    
  Jan 15, 2022 125   Murray St. W 77-70 71%    
  Jan 20, 2022 158   @ Morehead St. W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 22, 2022 301   Tennessee Tech W 86-69 92%    
  Jan 27, 2022 285   @ Austin Peay W 81-70 80%    
  Jan 29, 2022 349   Tennessee Martin W 90-64 98%    
  Feb 03, 2022 289   @ Tennessee St. W 85-74 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 301   @ Tennessee Tech W 83-72 82%    
  Feb 10, 2022 158   Morehead St. W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 12, 2022 268   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 82-72 77%    
  Feb 17, 2022 330   Eastern Illinois W 88-67 95%    
  Feb 19, 2022 328   SIU Edwardsville W 85-65 94%    
  Feb 24, 2022 125   @ Murray St. W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 26, 2022 289   Tennessee St. W 88-71 90%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 8.5 16.0 17.9 11.8 58.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 7.4 7.2 2.8 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 3.4 1.8 0.2 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.9 8.5 12.4 15.9 18.8 17.9 11.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 11.8    11.8
17-1 100.0% 17.9    16.4 1.5
16-2 85.2% 16.0    11.9 4.0 0.1
15-3 53.3% 8.5    4.7 3.4 0.4 0.0
14-4 25.4% 3.1    1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0
13-5 8.7% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 58.1% 58.1 46.1 10.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 11.8% 84.8% 77.7% 7.1% 9.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.8 32.0%
17-1 17.9% 70.5% 66.7% 3.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.6 3.8 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.3 11.4%
16-2 18.8% 56.4% 55.1% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.7 3.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 8.2 3.1%
15-3 15.9% 44.6% 44.3% 0.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.4 1.2 0.2 8.8 0.7%
14-4 12.4% 34.1% 34.0% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.3 0.3 8.2 0.1%
13-5 8.5% 25.4% 25.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 6.4 0.0%
12-6 5.9% 17.1% 17.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 4.9
11-7 3.8% 10.7% 10.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.4
10-8 2.3% 5.9% 5.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2
9-9 1.3% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.2
8-10 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
7-11 0.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 48.3% 46.5% 1.8% 12.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.6 3.5 9.5 12.2 9.1 5.0 1.6 51.7 3.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 3.6 7.1 13.1 25.9 29.8 14.8 6.9 1.4 0.4 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 6.1 3.4 1.8 5.2 17.7 19.5 10.4 16.9 8.9 5.2 5.5 1.8 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 88.3% 6.9 16.4 15.6 4.7 25.8 10.2 5.5 10.2