Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#203
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.0#344
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#236
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#177
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 19.8% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 2.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.1 12.5 14.2
.500 or above 47.8% 87.5% 47.2%
.500 or above in Conference 57.5% 87.4% 57.0%
Conference Champion 7.1% 23.4% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 0.9% 6.5%
First Four0.7% 1.9% 0.7%
First Round6.6% 18.5% 6.4%
Second Round0.8% 4.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 1.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 11
Quad 410 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 3   @ UCLA L 53-75 2%    
  Nov 18, 2021 324   @ Northern Arizona W 66-61 67%    
  Nov 26, 2021 76   @ Boise St. L 61-73 15%    
  Dec 11, 2021 341   Idaho W 73-59 87%    
  Dec 15, 2021 167   @ Abilene Christian L 63-68 34%    
  Dec 18, 2021 47   @ Colorado L 56-71 11%    
  Dec 21, 2021 270   Dartmouth W 68-61 72%    
  Dec 30, 2021 231   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-69 65%    
  Jan 01, 2022 271   Long Beach St. W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 06, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 08, 2022 97   @ UC Santa Barbara L 60-70 20%    
  Jan 13, 2022 208   UC Davis W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 15, 2022 148   UC Riverside L 64-65 49%    
  Jan 18, 2022 305   Cal Poly W 69-60 76%    
  Jan 20, 2022 202   Hawaii W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 27, 2022 111   @ UC Irvine L 61-70 23%    
  Jan 29, 2022 263   @ UC San Diego W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 03, 2022 271   @ Long Beach St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 231   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 10, 2022 97   UC Santa Barbara L 63-67 36%    
  Feb 12, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 75-67 74%    
  Feb 17, 2022 148   @ UC Riverside L 61-67 31%    
  Feb 19, 2022 208   @ UC Davis L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 22, 2022 305   @ Cal Poly W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 27, 2022 202   @ Hawaii L 63-66 41%    
  Mar 03, 2022 263   UC San Diego W 72-65 69%    
  Mar 05, 2022 111   UC Irvine L 64-67 40%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.5 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 4.3 2.9 0.8 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.4 4.5 6.2 7.0 8.5 9.1 9.8 9.5 9.0 8.0 7.1 5.4 4.0 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 94.7% 1.5    1.2 0.2
17-3 72.8% 1.8    1.2 0.5 0.0
16-4 43.1% 1.7    0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.1% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 4.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 64.8% 54.5% 10.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 22.6%
19-1 0.6% 58.6% 52.5% 6.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12.8%
18-2 1.5% 43.8% 41.2% 2.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 4.5%
17-3 2.4% 32.3% 31.3% 1.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.6 1.4%
16-4 4.0% 24.5% 24.3% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.0 0.2%
15-5 5.4% 18.3% 18.3% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 4.4
14-6 7.1% 12.3% 12.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 6.2
13-7 8.0% 8.6% 8.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 7.3
12-8 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 8.5
11-9 9.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.2
10-10 9.8% 3.2% 3.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.5
9-11 9.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.0
8-12 8.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.4
7-13 7.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.0
6-14 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
5-15 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-16 3.4% 3.4
3-17 2.1% 2.1
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.9% 6.8% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.3 93.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%