Preseason Rankings
California Baptist
Western Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#215
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.7#77
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#141
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#293
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 n/a
.500 or above 66.3% 66.9% 18.3%
.500 or above in Conference 64.5% 64.9% 27.6%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.9% 4.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 413 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 94-69 99%    
  Nov 16, 2021 262   Jackson St. W 76-70 70%    
  Nov 18, 2021 322   San Jose St. W 88-78 80%    
  Nov 21, 2021 201   Northern Colorado W 78-76 58%    
  Nov 24, 2021 7   @ Texas L 66-88 3%    
  Dec 02, 2021 305   Cal Poly W 79-71 76%    
  Dec 07, 2021 313   North Dakota W 81-72 77%    
  Dec 12, 2021 148   @ UC Riverside L 70-77 28%    
  Dec 18, 2021 31   @ Arizona L 68-86 8%    
  Dec 21, 2021 268   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 01, 2022 179   Seattle W 79-78 52%    
  Jan 08, 2022 357   @ Chicago St. W 87-71 90%    
  Jan 12, 2022 303   Dixie St. W 87-79 74%    
  Jan 15, 2022 209   Utah Valley W 80-78 58%    
  Jan 20, 2022 185   @ Tarleton St. L 69-74 35%    
  Jan 22, 2022 167   @ Abilene Christian L 73-79 32%    
  Jan 26, 2022 196   Sam Houston St. W 81-79 56%    
  Jan 29, 2022 153   Stephen F. Austin L 78-79 48%    
  Feb 03, 2022 102   @ New Mexico St. L 67-78 20%    
  Feb 05, 2022 142   @ Grand Canyon L 69-77 28%    
  Feb 10, 2022 308   Lamar W 81-72 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 310   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-73 75%    
  Feb 16, 2022 142   Grand Canyon L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 179   @ Seattle L 76-81 34%    
  Feb 24, 2022 303   @ Dixie St. W 84-82 57%    
  Feb 26, 2022 209   @ Utah Valley L 77-81 39%    
  Mar 02, 2022 357   Chicago St. W 90-68 96%    
  Mar 05, 2022 308   @ Lamar W 78-75 58%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.8 1.9 0.2 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.7 6.7 8.7 10.3 11.3 11.7 11.1 9.7 8.1 5.7 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 95.9% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
16-2 78.1% 1.6    1.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 50.0% 1.9    0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 19.9% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 0.2
17-1 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
16-2 2.1% 1.1% 1.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
15-3 3.8% 2.3% 2.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
14-4 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
13-5 8.1% 1.7% 1.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.9
12-6 9.7% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6
11-7 11.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0
10-8 11.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.6
9-9 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 11.2
8-10 10.3% 10.3
7-11 8.7% 8.7
6-12 6.7% 6.7
5-13 4.7% 4.7
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0%