Preseason Rankings
Davidson
Atlantic 10
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#98
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.4#351
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#69
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 1.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.9% 3.5% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 19.8% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.3% 12.4% 2.3%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 11.0
.500 or above 75.1% 81.3% 49.4%
.500 or above in Conference 73.4% 77.8% 55.5%
Conference Champion 9.5% 11.0% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.1% 4.1%
First Four3.2% 3.8% 0.9%
First Round15.3% 17.9% 4.7%
Second Round6.7% 8.0% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 2.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 7
Quad 36 - 49 - 10
Quad 49 - 117 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 181   Delaware W 70-61 80%    
  Nov 13, 2021 67   San Francisco L 66-69 40%    
  Nov 18, 2021 102   New Mexico St. W 64-63 51%    
  Nov 27, 2021 282   Robert Morris W 76-61 90%    
  Nov 30, 2021 178   @ Charlotte W 63-60 60%    
  Dec 04, 2021 295   William & Mary W 75-59 90%    
  Dec 12, 2021 134   @ Northeastern W 66-65 50%    
  Dec 18, 2021 264   Radford W 70-56 87%    
  Dec 22, 2021 46   Loyola Chicago L 61-63 44%    
  Dec 30, 2021 162   Duquesne W 70-62 74%    
  Jan 02, 2022 77   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-70 35%    
  Jan 05, 2022 193   @ Saint Joseph's W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 08, 2022 101   Rhode Island W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 11, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 14, 2022 57   @ Richmond L 65-72 30%    
  Jan 22, 2022 275   @ Fordham W 63-55 75%    
  Jan 26, 2022 77   Virginia Commonwealth W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 29, 2022 210   La Salle W 73-62 80%    
  Feb 01, 2022 28   @ St. Bonaventure L 59-69 22%    
  Feb 05, 2022 238   @ George Washington W 71-64 70%    
  Feb 09, 2022 193   Saint Joseph's W 77-67 78%    
  Feb 12, 2022 101   @ Rhode Island L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 19, 2022 79   Saint Louis W 68-66 54%    
  Feb 23, 2022 162   @ Duquesne W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 275   Fordham W 66-52 87%    
  Mar 02, 2022 169   George Mason W 70-62 74%    
  Mar 05, 2022 87   @ Dayton L 62-66 38%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.7 2.8 1.6 0.4 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.2 2.7 0.8 0.1 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.6 4.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.5 2.0 0.2 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.2 4.9 6.7 8.3 9.9 11.1 11.5 11.1 10.2 8.1 5.9 3.6 1.7 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 96.2% 1.6    1.4 0.2
16-2 78.0% 2.8    1.9 0.8 0.1
15-3 46.5% 2.7    1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 18.5% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 3.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 5.4 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 99.5% 54.3% 45.1% 3.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
17-1 1.7% 92.9% 40.6% 52.3% 5.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 88.0%
16-2 3.6% 84.4% 30.2% 54.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 77.7%
15-3 5.9% 64.9% 20.9% 43.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 55.6%
14-4 8.1% 41.2% 15.0% 26.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.8 30.8%
13-5 10.2% 23.5% 11.8% 11.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.8 13.3%
12-6 11.1% 11.4% 7.5% 3.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.8 4.2%
11-7 11.5% 5.4% 4.2% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.9 1.3%
10-8 11.1% 2.3% 2.1% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.2%
9-9 9.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.1%
8-10 8.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0%
7-11 6.7% 0.2% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6
6-12 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.9
5-13 3.2% 3.2
4-14 1.8% 1.8
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.9% 7.4% 9.5% 9.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.6 2.2 3.3 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 83.1 10.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 30.3 42.6 23.4 1.8 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.2 57.1 26.5 2.0 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.7 29.8 7.4 42.6 13.8 6.4