Preseason Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.2#87
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.7#310
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#104
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#78
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.5% 3.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.5% 19.8% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.7% 11.6% 1.5%
Average Seed 9.4 9.3 11.2
.500 or above 82.5% 85.3% 53.1%
.500 or above in Conference 73.5% 75.9% 48.9%
Conference Champion 11.1% 11.9% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.2% 5.4%
First Four2.9% 3.1% 0.8%
First Round17.0% 18.2% 4.4%
Second Round7.8% 8.4% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.3% 0.4%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 91.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 44 - 7
Quad 36 - 39 - 10
Quad 410 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 253   Illinois-Chicago W 74-60 91%    
  Nov 13, 2021 258   Umass Lowell W 77-63 91%    
  Nov 17, 2021 226   Lipscomb W 74-61 87%    
  Nov 20, 2021 285   Austin Peay W 76-60 92%    
  Nov 25, 2021 85   Miami (FL) L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 01, 2021 351   Alabama St. W 81-55 98%    
  Dec 04, 2021 314   Northern Illinois W 74-56 93%    
  Dec 08, 2021 62   @ SMU L 68-74 32%    
  Dec 12, 2021 34   Virginia Tech L 65-68 41%    
  Dec 18, 2021 66   @ Mississippi L 61-66 34%    
  Dec 21, 2021 317   Southern W 79-61 93%    
  Dec 30, 2021 101   @ Rhode Island L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 02, 2022 28   St. Bonaventure L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 05, 2022 77   Virginia Commonwealth W 69-67 56%    
  Jan 08, 2022 238   @ George Washington W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 11, 2022 79   Saint Louis W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 15, 2022 162   @ Duquesne W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 19, 2022 275   Fordham W 67-52 89%    
  Jan 22, 2022 169   @ George Mason W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 28, 2022 101   Rhode Island W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 02, 2022 77   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 79   @ Saint Louis L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 09, 2022 162   Duquesne W 72-63 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 238   George Washington W 76-63 85%    
  Feb 19, 2022 193   @ Saint Joseph's W 76-71 64%    
  Feb 23, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 75-69 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 210   @ La Salle W 71-66 66%    
  Mar 01, 2022 57   @ Richmond L 66-72 32%    
  Mar 05, 2022 98   Davidson W 66-62 62%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.1 3.3 2.0 0.7 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.5 3.0 0.8 0.1 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.5 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.6 1.7 0.2 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.3 1.8 0.2 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.1 9.5 10.5 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.4 6.4 4.1 2.1 0.7 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 97.0% 2.0    1.8 0.3
16-2 79.9% 3.3    2.1 1.0 0.1
15-3 48.5% 3.1    1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 19.4% 1.6    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 3.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.5 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 96.8% 52.9% 43.9% 3.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.2%
17-1 2.1% 93.7% 40.4% 53.3% 5.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 89.4%
16-2 4.1% 83.6% 33.2% 50.4% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 75.5%
15-3 6.4% 63.5% 24.0% 39.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 52.0%
14-4 8.4% 40.7% 17.1% 23.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.0 28.5%
13-5 10.0% 23.9% 12.9% 11.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.6 12.7%
12-6 10.9% 12.7% 8.6% 4.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.5 4.4%
11-7 11.1% 6.1% 4.7% 1.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.4 1.5%
10-8 10.5% 2.7% 2.3% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2 0.4%
9-9 9.5% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.1%
8-10 8.1% 0.6% 0.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1
7-11 6.6% 0.4% 0.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6
6-12 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.5% 8.7% 9.7% 9.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.3 3.5 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 81.5 10.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 52.7 28.8 13.2 3.5 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.6 21.1 43.0 10.2 16.4 4.7 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 17.9 10.7 18.8 33.9 12.5 6.3