Preseason Rankings
Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#260
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.4#329
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#326
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#170
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 15.8% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.0 15.1
.500 or above 38.7% 76.1% 36.4%
.500 or above in Conference 45.0% 74.5% 43.2%
Conference Champion 6.3% 19.1% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 3.5% 14.8%
First Four1.3% 0.9% 1.3%
First Round5.1% 15.4% 4.5%
Second Round0.3% 1.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 5.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 412 - 814 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 65   @ Providence L 55-72 6%    
  Nov 14, 2021 144   @ Boston College L 64-74 19%    
  Nov 20, 2021 288   @ Sacred Heart L 65-66 45%    
  Nov 24, 2021 188   Stony Brook L 62-63 46%    
  Nov 28, 2021 276   Loyola Maryland W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 03, 2021 265   @ Canisius L 66-69 41%    
  Dec 05, 2021 250   @ Niagara L 61-64 39%    
  Dec 08, 2021 321   Holy Cross W 71-64 71%    
  Dec 12, 2021 295   @ William & Mary L 64-65 47%    
  Dec 15, 2021 323   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-70 55%    
  Dec 19, 2021 119   @ Massachusetts L 63-75 17%    
  Dec 23, 2021 228   Wagner W 65-64 54%    
  Dec 31, 2021 278   Manhattan W 64-60 62%    
  Jan 02, 2022 146   Iona L 63-67 38%    
  Jan 07, 2022 246   Marist W 62-60 58%    
  Jan 09, 2022 227   @ Siena L 60-65 35%    
  Jan 16, 2022 261   @ Quinnipiac L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 20, 2022 216   Monmouth W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 23, 2022 246   @ Marist L 59-63 39%    
  Jan 28, 2022 248   @ Rider L 64-67 39%    
  Feb 04, 2022 216   @ Monmouth L 68-74 33%    
  Feb 06, 2022 227   Siena W 63-62 54%    
  Feb 09, 2022 261   Quinnipiac W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 12, 2022 250   Niagara W 64-61 58%    
  Feb 14, 2022 265   Canisius W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 18, 2022 191   St. Peter's L 60-61 47%    
  Feb 20, 2022 146   @ Iona L 60-70 22%    
  Feb 27, 2022 278   @ Manhattan L 61-63 44%    
  Mar 03, 2022 248   Rider W 67-64 58%    
  Mar 05, 2022 191   @ St. Peter's L 57-64 29%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.3 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 3.5 1.1 0.1 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.7 2.9 0.9 0.1 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.2 10th
11th 0.4 1.2 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 9.7 11th
Total 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.8 5.2 6.5 7.8 8.9 9.4 9.3 9.0 8.2 7.5 6.2 4.9 3.9 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 95.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 85.2% 1.4    1.0 0.3 0.0
16-4 61.0% 1.5    0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.2% 1.4    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 12.7% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 4.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 61.2% 58.4% 2.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9%
19-1 0.4% 54.1% 53.0% 1.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3%
18-2 0.8% 47.6% 47.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.6% 30.6% 30.5% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.2%
16-4 2.5% 29.7% 29.6% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.8 0.1%
15-5 3.9% 21.6% 21.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 3.0
14-6 4.9% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 4.2
13-7 6.2% 11.2% 11.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 5.5
12-8 7.5% 7.9% 7.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 6.9
11-9 8.2% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.7
10-10 9.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.7
9-11 9.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.2
8-12 9.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.3
7-13 8.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.8
6-14 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.8
5-15 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.5
4-16 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
3-17 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-18 2.3% 2.3
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.3 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.1 30.0 35.0 35.0
Lose Out 0.1%