IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.8	#142
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.3	#316
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.2	#139

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.6	#156

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.6%	17.8%	6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.6%	0.7%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.3	13.3	14.7

.500 or above	78.7%	82.3%	47.9%
.500 or above in Conference	84.6%	86.7%	66.3%
Conference Champion	19.0%	20.5%	6.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.2%	1.0%

First Four	0.8%	0.8%	1.2%
First Round	16.2%	17.4%	5.9%
Second Round	2.9%	3.1%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.8%	0.9%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 89.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	4 - 4	5 - 9
Quad 4	14 - 3	19 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	312	Grambling St.	W	75-62	90%
Nov 12, 2021	280	North Florida	W	76-65	84%
Nov 17, 2021	232	Prairie View	W	73-64	77%
Nov 22, 2021	156	Wyoming	W	73-69	64%
Nov 27, 2021	147	@ Pepperdine	L	71-74	41%
Nov 29, 2021	82	@ Loyola Marymount	L	63-71	25%
Dec 02, 2021	207	Texas San Antonio	W	77-70	72%
Dec 04, 2021	358	Mississippi Valley	W	87-58	99%
Dec 09, 2021	61	@ Arizona St.	L	69-79	20%
Dec 18, 2021	67	San Francisco	L	66-73	30%
Dec 21, 2021	63	@ Nevada	L	67-77	21%
Dec 30, 2021	357	Chicago St.	W	84-57	98%
Jan 06, 2022	310	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	73-66	72%
Jan 08, 2022	308	@ Lamar	W	72-65	72%
Jan 13, 2022	167	Abilene Christian	W	71-66	64%
Jan 15, 2022	185	Tarleton St.	W	68-62	68%
Jan 20, 2022	153	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	69-71	44%
Jan 22, 2022	196	@ Sam Houston St.	W	73-72	52%
Jan 29, 2022	102	@ New Mexico St.	L	62-68	31%
Feb 03, 2022	179	Seattle	W	73-68	66%
Feb 05, 2022	215	California Baptist	W	77-69	72%
Feb 10, 2022	209	@ Utah Valley	W	71-70	52%
Feb 12, 2022	303	@ Dixie St.	W	77-70	70%
Feb 16, 2022	215	@ California Baptist	W	74-72	55%
Feb 19, 2022	102	New Mexico St.	L	65-66	49%
Feb 23, 2022	357	@ Chicago St.	W	81-60	95%
Feb 26, 2022	196	Sam Houston St.	W	76-69	69%
Mar 03, 2022	209	Utah Valley	W	74-67	71%
Mar 05, 2022	303	Dixie St.	W	80-67	84%
Projected Record						18 - 11	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.5	2.4	5.1	5.7	3.9	1.4		19.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.8	3.5	5.8	4.0	1.1	0.0			15.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.9	3.7	5.5	2.7	0.4	0.0				13.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	3.4	5.0	2.1	0.3	0.0					11.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	2.8	4.4	1.9	0.2							9.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.1	3.9	1.9	0.2								8.4	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	1.5	3.3	1.8	0.2									7.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	1.2	2.4	1.5	0.3	0.0									5.6	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.8	1.9	1.1	0.2	0.0										4.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.2	0.6	1.2	0.9	0.2	0.0											3.0	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.1													1.7	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.9	12th
13th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	13th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.5	2.7	4.3	5.5	7.7	9.5	11.0	11.7	11.9	11.2	9.5	6.8	3.9	1.4			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.4		1.4
17-1	99.1%	3.9		3.6	0.3
16-2	84.1%	5.7		4.0	1.6	0.1
15-3	53.4%	5.1		2.4	2.1	0.5	0.0	0.0
14-4	21.2%	2.4		0.6	1.0	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.3%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	19.0%	19.0		12.0	5.3	1.4	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.4%		73.3%	62.4%	10.9%	9.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.4		29.1%
17-1	3.9%		58.8%	53.9%	4.9%	11.8				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.1		1.6		10.6%
16-2	6.8%		44.7%	42.9%	1.7%	12.9							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0	3.8		3.0%
15-3	9.5%		34.7%	34.3%	0.4%	13.5										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.2	0.5	0.1	6.2		0.6%
14-4	11.2%		24.3%	24.2%	0.1%	14.0											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.2	8.5		0.1%
13-5	11.9%		15.0%	15.0%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.3	10.1
12-6	11.7%		10.4%	10.4%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	10.5
11-7	11.0%		5.6%	5.6%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	10.4
10-8	9.5%		4.0%	4.0%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	9.1
9-9	7.7%		1.8%	1.8%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	7.5
8-10	5.5%		0.8%	0.8%		15.9																0.0	0.0	5.5
7-11	4.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.3
6-12	2.7%																							2.7
5-13	1.5%																							1.5
4-14	0.9%																							0.9
3-15	0.4%																							0.4
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		16.6%	16.1%	0.5%	13.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	2.2	3.9	4.0	3.1	1.5	83.4		0.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	4.5	3.1	3.1	12.6	36.8	23.8	17.5			3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	4.6				40.0	57.1	2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	81.3%	6.7					21.9	18.8	21.9		18.8