Preseason Rankings
Hawaii
Big West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#202
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.4#274
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#218
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#197
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 9.5% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.7
.500 or above 50.7% 63.6% 30.6%
.500 or above in Conference 57.7% 67.1% 43.2%
Conference Champion 7.2% 9.8% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 3.5% 10.7%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round6.7% 9.1% 3.1%
Second Round0.8% 1.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 49 - 413 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 201   Northern Colorado W 72-69 61%    
  Nov 14, 2021 137   Pacific L 67-68 46%    
  Nov 25, 2021 253   Illinois-Chicago W 70-67 62%    
  Nov 30, 2021 124   @ Santa Clara L 68-76 25%    
  Dec 23, 2021 92   Vanderbilt L 67-75 26%    
  Dec 31, 2021 208   UC Davis W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 02, 2022 148   UC Riverside L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 06, 2022 231   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 271   @ Long Beach St. W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 14, 2022 111   UC Irvine L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 16, 2022 263   UC San Diego W 75-68 70%    
  Jan 20, 2022 203   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 63-66 41%    
  Jan 22, 2022 305   @ Cal Poly W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 28, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 78-70 75%    
  Jan 30, 2022 97   UC Santa Barbara L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 03, 2022 148   @ UC Riverside L 64-70 31%    
  Feb 05, 2022 208   @ UC Davis L 69-72 42%    
  Feb 11, 2022 271   Long Beach St. W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 13, 2022 231   Cal St. Fullerton W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 17, 2022 263   @ UC San Diego W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 19, 2022 111   @ UC Irvine L 63-72 23%    
  Feb 25, 2022 305   Cal Poly W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 27, 2022 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-63 59%    
  Mar 04, 2022 97   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-73 21%    
  Mar 05, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 75-73 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 7.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 4.3 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 4.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.6 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.6 2.7 0.8 0.1 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.2 4.4 5.9 7.5 8.4 9.3 9.7 9.6 9.1 8.4 6.7 5.4 4.0 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
18-2 90.7% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
17-3 73.2% 1.9    1.3 0.5 0.0
16-4 42.6% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.9% 1.1    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 75.7% 61.0% 14.7% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.7%
19-1 0.7% 61.8% 51.9% 10.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 20.7%
18-2 1.4% 43.4% 39.3% 4.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.7%
17-3 2.6% 34.8% 33.6% 1.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1.8%
16-4 4.0% 25.6% 25.5% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.0 0.1%
15-5 5.4% 18.1% 18.1% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.4
14-6 6.7% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.9 0.0%
13-7 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 7.6
12-8 9.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 8.5
11-9 9.6% 4.1% 4.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.2
10-10 9.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.5
9-11 9.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.2
8-12 8.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.3
7-13 7.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.4
6-14 5.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.9
5-15 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
4-16 3.2% 3.2
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.1% 6.9% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.2 92.9 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 6.1 23.5 23.5 23.5 6.1 6.1 5.2 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 33.3% 7.9 4.8 28.6
Lose Out 0.1%