Preseason Rankings
Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#223
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.1#127
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#256
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#195
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.2% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 14.3
.500 or above 26.8% 34.5% 9.6%
.500 or above in Conference 20.5% 25.3% 9.5%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 30.8% 24.6% 44.9%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round1.6% 2.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 69.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 74 - 14
Quad 48 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 266   UNC Wilmington W 78-73 69%    
  Nov 12, 2021 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 71-70 55%    
  Nov 16, 2021 125   Murray St. L 68-71 39%    
  Nov 20, 2021 294   Bucknell W 79-72 72%    
  Nov 23, 2021 79   Saint Louis L 66-76 19%    
  Dec 01, 2021 96   Missouri St. L 70-76 31%    
  Dec 04, 2021 262   Jackson St. W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 11, 2021 357   @ Chicago St. W 82-66 90%    
  Dec 18, 2021 199   Ball St. W 75-73 55%    
  Dec 21, 2021 207   Texas San Antonio W 78-76 56%    
  Dec 29, 2021 43   @ Wisconsin L 58-75 8%    
  Jan 02, 2022 189   @ Valparaiso L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 05, 2022 46   Loyola Chicago L 60-71 20%    
  Jan 08, 2022 198   @ Evansville L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 12, 2022 73   @ Drake L 64-78 13%    
  Jan 16, 2022 157   Bradley L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 19, 2022 96   @ Missouri St. L 67-79 18%    
  Jan 23, 2022 198   Evansville W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 26, 2022 73   Drake L 67-75 27%    
  Jan 29, 2022 107   @ Northern Iowa L 68-79 19%    
  Feb 02, 2022 46   @ Loyola Chicago L 57-74 10%    
  Feb 05, 2022 140   Southern Illinois L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 09, 2022 189   Valparaiso W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 12, 2022 176   @ Indiana St. L 67-73 32%    
  Feb 15, 2022 107   Northern Iowa L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 157   @ Bradley L 66-73 30%    
  Feb 22, 2022 140   @ Southern Illinois L 64-72 26%    
  Feb 26, 2022 176   Indiana St. W 70-69 50%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 4.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.2 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.7 4.6 1.7 0.1 15.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.8 6.6 4.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 18.7 9th
10th 2.2 5.2 6.6 5.2 2.4 0.5 0.1 22.1 10th
Total 2.2 5.3 8.2 10.5 11.9 12.0 10.9 10.1 8.3 6.7 5.1 3.4 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 66.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 45.9% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 67.5% 52.5% 15.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.6%
17-1 0.1% 68.2% 29.9% 38.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.5%
16-2 0.2% 59.8% 42.1% 17.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 30.5%
15-3 0.4% 39.5% 24.9% 14.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 19.4%
14-4 0.8% 22.5% 17.7% 4.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 5.9%
13-5 1.5% 16.6% 14.3% 2.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3 2.7%
12-6 2.3% 8.7% 8.2% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.5%
11-7 3.4% 5.1% 5.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.3
10-8 5.1% 4.0% 4.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.9
9-9 6.7% 2.3% 2.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.5
8-10 8.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2
7-11 10.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1
6-12 10.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.9
5-13 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 12.0
4-14 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 11.9
3-15 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
2-16 8.2% 8.2
1-17 5.3% 5.3
0-18 2.2% 2.2
Total 100% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 98.3 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%