Preseason Rankings
Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#226
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.1#284
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#201
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#261
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 11.4% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 43.2% 62.5% 30.1%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 72.8% 51.0%
Conference Champion 6.7% 10.6% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 2.4% 7.5%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.5%
First Round7.0% 10.8% 4.4%
Second Round0.5% 1.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 31 - 6
Quad 32 - 53 - 11
Quad 411 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 235   @ College of Charleston L 66-69 40%    
  Nov 13, 2021 352   South Carolina St. W 82-67 90%    
  Nov 14, 2021 276   Loyola Maryland W 72-69 59%    
  Nov 17, 2021 87   @ Dayton L 61-74 13%    
  Nov 23, 2021 301   @ Tennessee Tech W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 02, 2021 81   @ Belmont L 68-81 14%    
  Dec 05, 2021 135   Chattanooga L 68-71 41%    
  Dec 08, 2021 85   @ Miami (FL) L 64-77 14%    
  Dec 12, 2021 289   Tennessee St. W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 15, 2021 18   @ Florida St. L 62-82 5%    
  Dec 22, 2021 36   @ LSU L 67-85 7%    
  Dec 30, 2021 340   Alabama A&M W 72-60 83%    
  Jan 04, 2022 318   North Alabama W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 08, 2022 334   @ Central Arkansas W 78-73 65%    
  Jan 11, 2022 164   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-72 29%    
  Jan 15, 2022 165   Bellarmine L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 18, 2022 180   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-81 32%    
  Jan 22, 2022 311   Kennesaw St. W 74-66 73%    
  Jan 27, 2022 302   @ Jacksonville W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 29, 2022 280   @ North Florida L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 03, 2022 251   Stetson W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 222   Florida Gulf Coast W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 08, 2022 110   @ Liberty L 60-71 19%    
  Feb 12, 2022 180   Eastern Kentucky L 78-79 50%    
  Feb 16, 2022 164   Jacksonville St. L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 19, 2022 318   @ North Alabama W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 23, 2022 165   @ Bellarmine L 65-72 30%    
  Feb 26, 2022 334   Central Arkansas W 81-70 80%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.1 0.3 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.5 2.3 0.6 0.1 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 5.1 2.3 0.3 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.2 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.9 12th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.7 5.5 7.5 9.6 11.3 12.1 11.7 11.1 9.1 6.9 4.7 2.8 1.2 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 95.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
14-2 77.3% 2.2    1.4 0.7 0.1
13-3 44.1% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-4 13.3% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 3.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 62.9% 55.0% 7.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.6%
15-1 1.2% 44.8% 44.0% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4%
14-2 2.8% 34.6% 34.4% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.8 0.4%
13-3 4.7% 26.2% 26.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 3.5
12-4 6.9% 17.6% 17.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 5.7
11-5 9.1% 12.3% 12.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 8.0
10-6 11.1% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 10.2
9-7 11.7% 6.0% 6.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 11.0
8-8 12.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 11.6
7-9 11.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.0
6-10 9.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 9.5
5-11 7.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.5
4-12 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-13 3.7% 3.7
2-14 1.7% 1.7
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.6 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%