Preseason Rankings
Loyola Chicago
Missouri Valley
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#46
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.3#347
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#75
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.5% 2.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.7% 7.7% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 12.9% 13.1% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.3% 46.6% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.5% 19.7% 2.0%
Average Seed 8.9 8.9 11.9
.500 or above 94.9% 95.2% 64.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 93.5% 69.8%
Conference Champion 44.1% 44.4% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 3.1%
First Four3.4% 3.5% 1.0%
First Round44.7% 45.0% 12.9%
Second Round23.1% 23.3% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen10.4% 10.5% 1.4%
Elite Eight4.5% 4.6% 0.5%
Final Four2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 24 - 5
Quad 38 - 212 - 7
Quad 410 - 122 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 336   Coppin St. W 85-60 99%    
  Nov 13, 2021 222   Florida Gulf Coast W 76-59 93%    
  Nov 16, 2021 357   Chicago St. W 84-49 99.9%   
  Nov 20, 2021 253   Illinois-Chicago W 73-55 94%    
  Nov 24, 2021 24   Michigan St. L 64-67 40%    
  Dec 01, 2021 176   Indiana St. W 70-56 87%    
  Dec 04, 2021 112   @ DePaul W 68-65 60%    
  Dec 10, 2021 92   @ Vanderbilt W 67-66 55%    
  Dec 19, 2021 291   Norfolk St. W 74-54 95%    
  Dec 22, 2021 98   @ Davidson W 63-61 56%    
  Jan 02, 2022 140   @ Southern Illinois W 65-60 67%    
  Jan 05, 2022 223   @ Illinois St. W 71-60 80%    
  Jan 08, 2022 157   Bradley W 70-57 85%    
  Jan 11, 2022 189   Valparaiso W 71-57 87%    
  Jan 15, 2022 176   @ Indiana St. W 67-59 73%    
  Jan 18, 2022 198   @ Evansville W 65-56 77%    
  Jan 22, 2022 96   Missouri St. W 70-62 73%    
  Jan 25, 2022 140   Southern Illinois W 68-57 82%    
  Jan 30, 2022 73   @ Drake L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 02, 2022 223   Illinois St. W 74-57 90%    
  Feb 06, 2022 96   @ Missouri St. W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 09, 2022 157   @ Bradley W 67-60 71%    
  Feb 13, 2022 107   Northern Iowa W 71-62 75%    
  Feb 16, 2022 189   @ Valparaiso W 68-60 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 73   Drake W 67-61 67%    
  Feb 23, 2022 198   Evansville W 68-53 88%    
  Feb 26, 2022 107   @ Northern Iowa W 68-65 58%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.7 10.0 11.7 9.6 4.8 44.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.4 6.8 3.6 1.0 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.7 3.2 0.9 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.9 4.2 5.5 7.8 9.8 11.8 13.3 13.6 12.7 9.6 4.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.8    4.8
17-1 100.0% 9.6    9.2 0.3
16-2 92.1% 11.7    9.9 1.8 0.0
15-3 73.2% 10.0    6.6 3.1 0.3
14-4 42.5% 5.7    2.7 2.4 0.6 0.0
13-5 16.9% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.1% 44.1 33.8 8.7 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.8% 97.9% 73.8% 24.2% 3.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.1%
17-1 9.6% 94.0% 63.5% 30.5% 6.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 83.5%
16-2 12.7% 81.1% 52.0% 29.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 60.7%
15-3 13.6% 63.0% 42.1% 20.9% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 36.0%
14-4 13.3% 45.9% 33.6% 12.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.2 18.6%
13-5 11.8% 30.2% 25.4% 4.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.2 6.4%
12-6 9.8% 20.1% 18.6% 1.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.9 1.9%
11-7 7.8% 13.0% 12.8% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.8 0.2%
10-8 5.5% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.0 0.0%
9-9 4.2% 7.5% 7.5% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9 0.1%
8-10 2.9% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
7-11 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 1.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 46.3% 33.3% 13.0% 8.9 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.4 4.3 6.4 8.1 4.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 53.7 19.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 2.2 32.1 32.3 23.6 9.1 2.1 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 3.0 17.1 24.1 25.2 18.4 8.6 4.6 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 98.0% 3.1 7.8 26.3 28.2 22.9 8.9 3.9