IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Loyola Marymount
West Coast
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.8	#82
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.3	#275
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.8	#65

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.0	#94

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.7%	0.9%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	2.4%	3.1%	0.3%
Top 6 Seed	4.9%	6.2%	0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	21.5%	26.0%	7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	17.9%	21.8%	5.7%
Average Seed	8.8	8.7	10.0

.500 or above	68.7%	76.4%	43.9%
.500 or above in Conference	64.3%	69.7%	46.8%
Conference Champion	4.6%	5.5%	1.6%
Last Place in Conference	2.9%	1.9%	6.0%

First Four	4.5%	5.3%	2.1%
First Round	19.3%	23.3%	6.2%
Second Round	9.7%	12.0%	2.6%
Sweet Sixteen	3.7%	4.6%	0.8%
Elite Eight	1.5%	1.9%	0.3%
Final Four	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 4	0 - 4
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 6
Quad 2	2 - 3	4 - 9
Quad 3	5 - 3	9 - 11
Quad 4	7 - 1	16 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	135	Chattanooga	W	73-65	76%
Nov 17, 2021	277	Arkansas Little Rock	W	77-61	92%
Nov 21, 2021	18	Florida St.	L	68-75	27%
Nov 27, 2021	232	Prairie View	W	76-62	88%
Nov 29, 2021	142	Grand Canyon	W	71-63	75%
Dec 04, 2021	271	@ Long Beach St.	W	81-71	79%
Dec 07, 2021	108	@ Tulsa	L	66-67	48%
Dec 11, 2021	102	New Mexico St.	W	69-64	65%
Dec 18, 2021	63	@ Nevada	L	71-76	34%
Dec 21, 2021	165	@ Bellarmine	W	71-67	61%
Jan 01, 2022	1	Gonzaga	L	74-85	18%
Jan 06, 2022	307	Portland	W	84-66	92%
Jan 08, 2022	137	@ Pacific	W	69-67	55%
Jan 13, 2022	67	@ San Francisco	L	68-73	36%
Jan 15, 2022	170	@ San Diego	W	74-70	61%
Jan 20, 2022	147	Pepperdine	W	78-70	75%
Jan 22, 2022	49	St. Mary's	L	64-65	49%
Jan 27, 2022	1	@ Gonzaga	L	71-88	9%
Jan 29, 2022	170	San Diego	W	77-67	78%
Feb 03, 2022	124	@ Santa Clara	W	73-72	52%
Feb 05, 2022	49	@ St. Mary's	L	61-67	31%
Feb 10, 2022	38	BYU	L	71-72	45%
Feb 12, 2022	307	@ Portland	W	81-69	82%
Feb 17, 2022	124	Santa Clara	W	76-69	70%
Feb 24, 2022	38	@ BYU	L	68-75	28%
Feb 26, 2022	137	Pacific	W	72-64	72%
Projected Record						15 - 11	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.6	1.4	1.5	0.8	0.2		4.6	1st
2nd									0.0	0.1	1.0	3.4	4.7	3.0	0.7				12.9	2nd
3rd									0.2	2.1	5.7	5.7	2.0	0.2					15.8	3rd
4th							0.0	0.3	2.7	6.7	5.0	1.2	0.1						15.9	4th
5th						0.0	0.3	2.9	6.6	4.0	0.7	0.0							14.5	5th
6th					0.0	0.3	2.7	6.1	3.3	0.4	0.0								12.9	6th
7th				0.0	0.3	2.5	4.5	2.4	0.3	0.0									10.0	7th
8th			0.0	0.4	2.2	3.2	1.4	0.2	0.0										7.4	8th
9th		0.1	0.5	1.5	1.7	0.7	0.1												4.6	9th
10th	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1														1.4	10th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.1	2.4	4.3	6.7	9.0	11.8	13.0	13.3	12.3	10.5	7.3	4.6	2.2	0.8	0.2			Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
15-1	100.0%	0.8		0.7	0.1
14-2	67.2%	1.5		0.9	0.6	0.0
13-3	30.2%	1.4		0.5	0.7	0.2	0.0
12-4	8.1%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0
11-5	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	4.6%	4.6		2.4	1.8	0.4	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.2%		100.0%	52.4%	47.6%	1.9		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0														100.0%
15-1	0.8%		99.2%	32.4%	66.8%	3.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		98.8%
14-2	2.2%		95.8%	25.6%	70.2%	5.4		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.1		94.3%
13-3	4.6%		86.6%	16.8%	69.9%	7.3		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.6		83.9%
12-4	7.3%		68.5%	11.7%	56.8%	9.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.6	0.1	0.0			2.3		64.3%
11-5	10.5%		44.1%	6.9%	37.2%	10.3				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	0.9	1.3	1.0	0.1	0.0			5.9		39.9%
10-6	12.3%		22.7%	4.3%	18.4%	10.9							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.1	0.0			9.5		19.2%
9-7	13.3%		10.0%	2.2%	7.9%	11.3							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0		11.9		8.0%
8-8	13.0%		3.6%	1.4%	2.2%	11.8									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		12.6		2.2%
7-9	11.8%		1.2%	0.9%	0.3%	12.8											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11.7		0.3%
6-10	9.0%		0.4%	0.4%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.9
5-11	6.7%		0.3%	0.3%		14.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.7
4-12	4.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.3
3-13	2.4%																							2.4
2-14	1.1%																							1.1
1-15	0.4%																							0.4
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		21.5%	4.4%	17.1%	8.8		0.3	0.4	0.7	1.0	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.8	2.4	3.0	3.9	3.4	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0	78.5		17.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	1.5	58.1	35.5	6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.5	74.1		25.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	2.0	29.8	55.3		14.9
Lose Out	0.0%