Preseason Rankings
Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#246
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#277
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#328
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#143
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 10.4% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.2
.500 or above 45.7% 65.3% 32.3%
.500 or above in Conference 48.8% 63.4% 38.8%
Conference Champion 7.4% 11.9% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 5.9% 16.6%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.2%
First Round6.1% 9.7% 3.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Away) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 73 - 8
Quad 412 - 815 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 259   @ American L 64-66 41%    
  Nov 12, 2021 315   @ Columbia W 66-65 53%    
  Nov 17, 2021 168   @ Princeton L 63-71 24%    
  Nov 20, 2021 218   VMI W 71-70 53%    
  Nov 27, 2021 257   @ Army L 65-67 42%    
  Dec 01, 2021 146   Iona L 64-67 39%    
  Dec 05, 2021 248   @ Rider L 66-69 41%    
  Dec 08, 2021 327   @ Binghamton W 66-64 57%    
  Dec 12, 2021 184   Navy L 64-65 47%    
  Dec 18, 2021 197   @ Boston University L 62-68 31%    
  Dec 22, 2021 350   Bethune-Cookman W 74-59 88%    
  Dec 31, 2021 216   @ Monmouth L 70-75 35%    
  Jan 02, 2022 191   St. Peter's L 62-63 48%    
  Jan 07, 2022 260   @ Fairfield L 60-62 42%    
  Jan 09, 2022 248   Rider W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 14, 2022 227   Siena W 65-63 56%    
  Jan 16, 2022 216   Monmouth W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 21, 2022 146   @ Iona L 61-70 23%    
  Jan 23, 2022 260   Fairfield W 63-59 61%    
  Jan 28, 2022 261   @ Quinnipiac L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 30, 2022 278   @ Manhattan L 62-63 45%    
  Feb 06, 2022 191   @ St. Peter's L 59-66 30%    
  Feb 12, 2022 265   Canisius W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 14, 2022 250   Niagara W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 18, 2022 227   @ Siena L 62-66 37%    
  Feb 20, 2022 261   Quinnipiac W 71-67 61%    
  Feb 25, 2022 278   Manhattan W 65-60 64%    
  Mar 03, 2022 265   @ Canisius L 68-70 43%    
  Mar 05, 2022 250   @ Niagara L 62-65 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 7.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.6 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 9.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.7 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.3 11th
Total 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.3 4.7 6.0 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.5 9.2 8.7 7.8 6.7 5.6 4.2 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 96.4% 1.0    0.9 0.1 0.0
17-3 84.5% 1.6    1.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 60.0% 1.8    1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.1% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 12.6% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 4.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 67.7% 61.0% 6.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.2%
19-1 0.4% 53.9% 50.9% 2.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6.0%
18-2 1.1% 45.5% 45.3% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.4%
17-3 1.9% 34.0% 33.9% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.2%
16-4 3.1% 26.7% 26.6% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.2 0.1%
15-5 4.2% 23.1% 23.1% 14.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.2
14-6 5.6% 15.6% 15.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 4.7
13-7 6.7% 12.3% 12.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 5.9
12-8 7.8% 8.6% 8.6% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 7.1
11-9 8.7% 5.5% 5.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.3
10-10 9.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.9
9-11 9.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.3
8-12 8.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.8
7-13 8.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.2
6-14 7.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.5
5-15 6.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.9
4-16 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-17 3.3% 3.3
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.4 93.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.5 13.2 37.7 26.4 11.3 11.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 75.0% 11.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Lose Out 0.0%