Preseason Rankings
Memphis
American Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#11
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.3#44
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 2.1% 0.3%
#1 Seed 10.0% 10.1% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 19.9% 20.0% 2.2%
Top 4 Seed 36.0% 36.2% 5.2%
Top 6 Seed 48.7% 49.0% 11.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.3% 78.6% 34.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.6% 69.0% 24.4%
Average Seed 5.5 5.5 8.2
.500 or above 95.9% 96.1% 70.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 93.9% 73.8%
Conference Champion 39.8% 40.0% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 2.5%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 5.6%
First Round76.7% 77.0% 30.5%
Second Round56.0% 56.3% 13.9%
Sweet Sixteen32.2% 32.4% 5.2%
Elite Eight17.8% 17.9% 2.3%
Final Four9.4% 9.4% 1.0%
Championship Game4.9% 4.9% 0.3%
National Champion2.6% 2.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 4
Quad 26 - 210 - 6
Quad 38 - 118 - 7
Quad 46 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 301   Tennessee Tech W 88-62 99%    
  Nov 13, 2021 339   NC Central W 86-55 99.7%   
  Nov 16, 2021 79   Saint Louis W 79-68 84%    
  Nov 19, 2021 100   Western Kentucky W 79-66 87%    
  Nov 24, 2021 34   Virginia Tech W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 01, 2021 133   @ Georgia W 85-75 79%    
  Dec 04, 2021 66   @ Mississippi W 70-66 62%    
  Dec 10, 2021 125   Murray St. W 79-64 90%    
  Dec 14, 2021 15   Alabama W 82-79 61%    
  Dec 18, 2021 23   Tennessee W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 21, 2021 351   Alabama St. W 90-55 99.7%   
  Dec 29, 2021 136   @ Tulane W 76-66 79%    
  Jan 01, 2022 54   @ Wichita St. W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 04, 2022 108   Tulsa W 76-62 86%    
  Jan 09, 2022 90   Cincinnati W 81-69 83%    
  Jan 12, 2022 68   @ Central Florida W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 15, 2022 183   @ East Carolina W 79-66 85%    
  Jan 20, 2022 62   SMU W 81-72 77%    
  Jan 23, 2022 108   @ Tulsa W 73-65 73%    
  Jan 27, 2022 183   East Carolina W 82-63 93%    
  Feb 03, 2022 90   @ Cincinnati W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 68   Central Florida W 77-67 78%    
  Feb 09, 2022 136   Tulane W 79-63 90%    
  Feb 12, 2022 13   @ Houston L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 20, 2022 62   @ SMU W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 24, 2022 120   Temple W 79-64 88%    
  Feb 27, 2022 54   Wichita St. W 76-67 76%    
  Mar 03, 2022 177   @ South Florida W 77-64 84%    
  Mar 06, 2022 13   Houston W 70-67 60%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.2 8.8 11.4 9.6 4.5 39.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.9 7.6 5.2 1.5 0.0 22.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.2 4.3 1.5 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.9 5.7 7.7 10.1 11.8 13.3 14.2 12.9 9.6 4.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.5    4.5
17-1 100.0% 9.6    9.0 0.5
16-2 88.3% 11.4    9.0 2.4 0.0
15-3 62.3% 8.8    5.3 3.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 31.6% 4.2    1.6 2.0 0.5 0.1
13-5 9.6% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.8% 39.8 29.7 8.7 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.5% 100.0% 71.5% 28.5% 1.5 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 9.6% 100.0% 61.7% 38.2% 2.0 4.1 3.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 12.9% 99.7% 49.6% 50.1% 3.1 2.4 3.3 2.8 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
15-3 14.2% 98.7% 38.2% 60.5% 4.6 0.6 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.9%
14-4 13.3% 95.0% 29.6% 65.4% 6.3 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 92.9%
13-5 11.8% 87.7% 22.9% 64.9% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.5 84.1%
12-6 10.1% 71.4% 15.8% 55.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.9 66.0%
11-7 7.7% 52.7% 11.7% 41.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 46.4%
10-8 5.7% 34.5% 7.8% 26.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.7 29.0%
9-9 3.9% 19.8% 5.5% 14.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.1 15.1%
8-10 2.6% 7.1% 2.8% 4.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 4.4%
7-11 1.7% 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.6%
6-12 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2%
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 78.3% 30.9% 47.4% 5.5 10.0 9.9 8.1 8.0 6.8 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.5 4.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.7 68.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 1.2 77.9 21.3 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 73.2 24.9 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 66.0 29.0 5.0