Preseason Rankings
Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#152
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.9#304
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#121
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#203
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 17.5% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 4.2% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.7 11.6 13.2
.500 or above 57.5% 85.0% 52.7%
.500 or above in Conference 64.9% 84.2% 61.5%
Conference Champion 7.8% 16.6% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 0.6% 3.2%
First Four0.7% 1.8% 0.5%
First Round7.5% 16.5% 5.9%
Second Round1.6% 4.9% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 14.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 56 - 11
Quad 410 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 60   @ Georgia Tech L 63-74 15%    
  Nov 13, 2021 308   Lamar W 76-64 87%    
  Nov 17, 2021 251   Stetson W 75-66 78%    
  Nov 27, 2021 274   @ Western Illinois W 78-74 63%    
  Dec 01, 2021 90   Cincinnati L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 04, 2021 176   @ Indiana St. L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 14, 2021 55   @ Clemson L 59-70 17%    
  Dec 18, 2021 165   Bellarmine W 71-67 62%    
  Dec 29, 2021 83   @ Buffalo L 72-81 24%    
  Jan 01, 2022 279   Central Michigan W 81-71 80%    
  Jan 04, 2022 150   @ Bowling Green L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 08, 2022 128   Akron W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 11, 2022 114   Toledo L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 15, 2022 284   @ Western Michigan W 71-66 64%    
  Jan 18, 2022 91   Ohio L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 22, 2022 314   Northern Illinois W 73-61 84%    
  Jan 25, 2022 199   @ Ball St. L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 72-66 67%    
  Feb 01, 2022 132   Kent St. W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 05, 2022 128   @ Akron L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 08, 2022 284   Western Michigan W 74-63 80%    
  Feb 12, 2022 150   Bowling Green W 76-73 58%    
  Feb 15, 2022 91   @ Ohio L 69-77 26%    
  Feb 19, 2022 314   @ Northern Illinois W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 22, 2022 83   Buffalo L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 114   @ Toledo L 70-76 32%    
  Mar 01, 2022 279   @ Central Michigan W 78-74 63%    
  Mar 04, 2022 300   Eastern Michigan W 75-63 81%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.2 7.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.0 2.5 1.0 0.2 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.0 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.3 3.6 1.3 0.1 12.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.0 3.0 0.9 0.1 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.4 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.4 7.6 8.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 9.2 8.2 6.6 4.7 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 91.4% 1.7    1.4 0.3 0.0
17-3 67.7% 2.2    1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
16-4 37.3% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 12.9% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
14-6 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 4.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 84.2% 51.1% 33.1% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.6%
19-1 0.8% 72.5% 47.4% 25.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 47.7%
18-2 1.9% 52.1% 37.4% 14.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 23.4%
17-3 3.3% 36.5% 30.6% 5.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 8.5%
16-4 4.7% 23.9% 21.7% 2.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 3.6 2.8%
15-5 6.6% 14.9% 14.4% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.6 0.6%
14-6 8.2% 11.7% 11.6% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.3 0.1%
13-7 9.2% 7.3% 7.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 8.5
12-8 10.1% 4.3% 4.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.7
11-9 10.0% 3.6% 3.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.6
10-10 9.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7
9-11 8.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.7
8-12 7.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.5
7-13 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
6-14 4.8% 4.8
5-15 3.3% 3.3
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.8% 6.9% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 92.2 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.9 37.5 18.8 21.9 21.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.5 15.0 52.5 17.5 15.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 5.3 17.1 34.1 48.8