Preseason Rankings
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#267
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#111
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#281
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#249
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 15.5
.500 or above 17.9% 19.7% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 18.1% 19.7% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.5% 25.2% 46.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 89.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 41 - 7
Quad 32 - 83 - 14
Quad 47 - 510 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 350   Bethune-Cookman W 79-65 89%    
  Nov 16, 2021 143   Winthrop L 76-81 34%    
  Nov 19, 2021 153   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-79 20%    
  Nov 23, 2021 248   Rider L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 01, 2021 349   Tennessee Martin W 80-67 86%    
  Dec 04, 2021 125   @ Murray St. L 64-76 16%    
  Dec 11, 2021 349   @ Tennessee Martin W 77-70 71%    
  Dec 15, 2021 66   @ Mississippi L 59-76 8%    
  Dec 19, 2021 190   Coastal Carolina L 75-77 45%    
  Dec 22, 2021 135   @ Chattanooga L 66-77 18%    
  Dec 30, 2021 207   Texas San Antonio L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 01, 2022 163   UTEP L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 06, 2022 173   @ Rice L 72-81 24%    
  Jan 08, 2022 123   @ North Texas L 60-72 17%    
  Jan 13, 2022 159   Florida Atlantic L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 15, 2022 273   Florida International W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 22, 2022 195   Southern Miss L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 27, 2022 118   @ Marshall L 73-85 16%    
  Jan 29, 2022 100   @ Western Kentucky L 65-79 13%    
  Feb 05, 2022 74   @ UAB L 63-79 10%    
  Feb 10, 2022 131   Old Dominion L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 13, 2022 178   Charlotte L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 17, 2022 273   @ Florida International L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 19, 2022 159   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-76 23%    
  Feb 24, 2022 118   Marshall L 76-82 31%    
  Feb 26, 2022 100   Western Kentucky L 68-76 26%    
  Mar 02, 2022 178   @ Charlotte L 62-70 26%    
  Mar 05, 2022 131   @ Old Dominion L 65-76 19%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.5 0.8 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.1 1.5 0.1 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.2 1.0 0.0 11.0 11th
12th 0.2 1.7 4.9 4.9 1.6 0.1 13.5 12th
13th 0.5 2.8 5.7 4.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.7 13th
14th 2.4 5.4 6.0 3.7 1.2 0.2 18.8 14th
Total 2.4 5.8 9.0 11.2 12.3 12.4 11.2 9.7 7.8 6.3 4.4 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 87.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 56.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 29.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 65.8% 38.3% 27.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.6%
16-2 0.1% 34.2% 26.0% 8.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.1%
15-3 0.3% 15.2% 11.8% 3.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.9%
14-4 0.5% 13.6% 11.2% 2.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7%
13-5 1.1% 9.3% 9.1% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2%
12-6 2.0% 4.2% 4.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
11-7 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
10-8 4.4% 1.0% 1.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
9-9 6.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3
8-10 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-11 9.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 9.7
6-12 11.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.2
5-13 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.4
4-14 12.3% 12.3
3-15 11.2% 11.2
2-16 9.0% 9.0
1-17 5.8% 5.8
0-18 2.4% 2.4
Total 100% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%