Preseason Rankings
Montana St.
Big Sky
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#204
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.9#188
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#199
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#221
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 19.5% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.3 14.6
.500 or above 61.8% 90.5% 59.4%
.500 or above in Conference 63.9% 86.9% 62.1%
Conference Champion 9.6% 23.8% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 0.5% 4.0%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 1.0%
First Round8.2% 19.1% 7.3%
Second Round0.8% 2.9% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 7.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 413 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 47   @ Colorado L 61-76 7%    
  Nov 17, 2021 99   @ South Dakota St. L 73-83 18%    
  Nov 20, 2021 240   @ New Mexico L 70-71 48%    
  Nov 26, 2021 307   Portland W 80-74 70%    
  Nov 27, 2021 345   @ Incarnate Word W 73-65 76%    
  Nov 28, 2021 268   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-71 63%    
  Dec 02, 2021 201   @ Northern Colorado L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 04, 2021 287   @ Sacramento St. W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 07, 2021 130   North Dakota St. L 68-69 45%    
  Dec 11, 2021 353   @ St. Thomas W 80-66 88%    
  Dec 19, 2021 307   Portland W 81-72 77%    
  Dec 30, 2021 129   Weber St. L 77-79 46%    
  Jan 01, 2022 236   Idaho St. W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 06, 2022 341   @ Idaho W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 08, 2022 161   Montana W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 15, 2022 122   Southern Utah L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 20, 2022 324   @ Northern Arizona W 70-65 65%    
  Jan 22, 2022 220   @ Portland St. L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 27, 2022 219   Eastern Washington W 79-75 62%    
  Jan 29, 2022 341   Idaho W 78-64 86%    
  Feb 03, 2022 236   @ Idaho St. L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 129   @ Weber St. L 74-82 28%    
  Feb 10, 2022 220   Portland St. W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 12, 2022 324   Northern Arizona W 73-62 81%    
  Feb 17, 2022 219   @ Eastern Washington L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 19, 2022 122   @ Southern Utah L 71-79 26%    
  Feb 27, 2022 161   @ Montana L 67-72 34%    
  Mar 03, 2022 287   Sacramento St. W 73-65 73%    
  Mar 05, 2022 201   Northern Colorado W 74-71 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.4 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.3 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 3.5 2.3 0.8 0.1 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.0 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.5 2.6 0.6 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.3 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.5 5.1 6.3 7.7 8.8 9.4 10.0 9.6 9.2 7.8 6.7 4.9 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 94.1% 1.7    1.4 0.3
17-3 74.3% 2.4    1.7 0.7 0.0
16-4 48.1% 2.4    1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.6% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 6.0 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 60.3% 57.1% 3.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.6%
19-1 0.9% 55.4% 51.5% 4.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 8.2%
18-2 1.8% 38.8% 37.7% 1.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.6%
17-3 3.3% 34.0% 33.8% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.2 0.3%
16-4 4.9% 26.3% 26.3% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.6
15-5 6.7% 20.0% 20.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 5.3
14-6 7.8% 13.9% 13.9% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 6.7
13-7 9.2% 9.9% 9.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 8.3
12-8 9.6% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 9.0
11-9 10.0% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.6
10-10 9.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.2
9-11 8.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.7
8-12 7.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.6
7-13 6.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.3
6-14 5.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.0
5-15 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.6% 8.6% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.0 91.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.1 29.0 14.0 21.5 20.4 7.5 7.5
Lose Out 0.0%