Preseason Rankings
Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#158
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.7#309
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#183
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#150
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 1.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 32.5% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 2.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.0 12.7 14.2
.500 or above 75.0% 96.0% 73.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.9% 97.7% 87.1%
Conference Champion 17.8% 35.1% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
First Round15.3% 31.8% 14.0%
Second Round2.0% 6.5% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 7.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 33 - 33 - 9
Quad 414 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 26   @ Auburn L 65-80 8%    
  Nov 12, 2021 74   @ UAB L 62-72 19%    
  Nov 21, 2021 56   @ Mississippi St. L 60-72 16%    
  Nov 26, 2021 194   @ Arkansas St. L 69-70 47%    
  Nov 27, 2021 233   UMKC W 64-60 64%    
  Dec 01, 2021 245   Georgia Southern W 69-61 75%    
  Dec 06, 2021 319   Presbyterian W 72-59 85%    
  Dec 11, 2021 141   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-68 36%    
  Dec 15, 2021 37   @ Xavier L 62-76 13%    
  Dec 21, 2021 333   @ IUPUI W 77-68 77%    
  Dec 29, 2021 330   Eastern Illinois W 77-63 88%    
  Jan 01, 2022 289   Tennessee St. W 76-66 80%    
  Jan 06, 2022 301   @ Tennessee Tech W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 08, 2022 285   @ Austin Peay W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 12, 2022 349   Tennessee Martin W 79-60 94%    
  Jan 15, 2022 289   @ Tennessee St. W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 20, 2022 81   Belmont L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 22, 2022 328   SIU Edwardsville W 75-61 87%    
  Jan 27, 2022 268   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 125   @ Murray St. L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 03, 2022 301   Tennessee Tech W 75-64 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 285   Austin Peay W 73-63 79%    
  Feb 10, 2022 81   @ Belmont L 68-77 23%    
  Feb 12, 2022 125   Murray St. W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 16, 2022 349   @ Tennessee Martin W 76-63 85%    
  Feb 19, 2022 268   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 24, 2022 330   @ Eastern Illinois W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 72-64 73%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.3 5.7 4.1 1.4 17.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.4 7.8 6.0 1.8 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.3 7.3 6.8 3.1 0.4 23.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 4.2 5.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.2 2.9 1.0 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.9 3.0 4.9 6.6 8.7 10.7 12.3 13.2 12.7 10.7 7.5 4.1 1.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 4.1    3.5 0.6
16-2 76.1% 5.7    3.7 1.9 0.1
15-3 40.0% 4.3    2.0 2.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 14.6% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 3.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 11.3 5.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 68.2% 63.7% 4.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 12.5%
17-1 4.1% 51.7% 49.3% 2.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 4.8%
16-2 7.5% 40.7% 40.2% 0.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 4.5 0.9%
15-3 10.7% 29.4% 29.3% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.2 7.5 0.1%
14-4 12.7% 21.1% 21.1% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.4 10.1
13-5 13.2% 14.3% 14.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 11.3
12-6 12.3% 8.5% 8.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 11.2
11-7 10.7% 5.1% 5.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.2
10-8 8.7% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.4
9-9 6.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.5
8-10 4.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.9
7-11 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-12 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 15.9% 15.7% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.4 3.3 3.9 3.9 2.5 84.1 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.3 13.0 35.2 25.9 13.0 13.0