IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.0	#125
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.0	#288
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.6	#131

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.4	#132

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.5%	0.7%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	26.0%	30.1%	16.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.7%	1.1%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.4	13.1	14.4

.500 or above	88.8%	94.5%	75.7%
.500 or above in Conference	94.5%	96.7%	89.4%
Conference Champion	30.5%	35.4%	19.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.1%	0.5%

First Four	1.0%	0.9%	1.3%
First Round	25.6%	29.7%	16.0%
Second Round	4.5%	5.8%	1.5%
Sweet Sixteen	1.4%	1.9%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 3	4 - 6
Quad 4	14 - 2	18 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2021	165	Bellarmine	W	71-65	70%
Nov 16, 2021	223	@ Illinois St.	W	71-68	61%
Nov 22, 2021	141	East Tennessee St.	W	68-67	54%
Dec 04, 2021	267	Middle Tennessee	W	76-64	84%
Dec 10, 2021	11	@ Memphis	L	64-79	10%
Dec 18, 2021	135	Chattanooga	W	71-67	62%
Dec 22, 2021	26	@ Auburn	L	67-80	15%
Dec 30, 2021	268	Southeast Missouri St.	W	76-64	83%
Jan 01, 2022	301	Tennessee Tech	W	78-64	86%
Jan 06, 2022	330	@ Eastern Illinois	W	76-65	81%
Jan 08, 2022	328	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	74-64	80%
Jan 13, 2022	289	Tennessee St.	W	79-66	85%
Jan 15, 2022	81	@ Belmont	L	70-77	29%
Jan 20, 2022	330	Eastern Illinois	W	79-62	91%
Jan 22, 2022	349	Tennessee Martin	W	81-59	96%
Jan 27, 2022	301	@ Tennessee Tech	W	75-67	73%
Jan 29, 2022	158	Morehead St.	W	69-64	67%
Feb 03, 2022	285	@ Austin Peay	W	73-66	70%
Feb 05, 2022	328	SIU Edwardsville	W	77-61	90%
Feb 10, 2022	289	@ Tennessee St.	W	76-69	71%
Feb 12, 2022	158	@ Morehead St.	L	66-67	49%
Feb 17, 2022	285	Austin Peay	W	76-63	84%
Feb 19, 2022	349	@ Tennessee Martin	W	78-62	89%
Feb 24, 2022	81	Belmont	L	73-74	48%
Feb 26, 2022	268	@ Southeast Missouri St.	W	73-67	68%
Projected Record						17 - 8	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.6	2.4	6.1	9.4	8.6	3.4		30.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	2.2	6.2	9.2	8.3	3.1				29.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	0.8	3.3	5.8	5.8	2.6	0.4					18.7	3rd
4th									0.1	0.9	2.7	3.6	2.1	0.5	0.0						9.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.1	0.7	1.9	2.0	0.7	0.1								5.6	5th
6th							0.1	0.5	1.2	0.8	0.3	0.0									2.9	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0										1.6	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0												0.8	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0													0.4	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0														0.1	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.5	2.5	3.9	5.8	8.0	10.3	13.1	14.2	14.7	12.6	8.6	3.4			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	3.4		3.4
17-1	100.0%	8.6		7.5	1.1
16-2	75.2%	9.4		6.3	3.0	0.1
15-3	41.4%	6.1		3.0	2.7	0.4	0.0
14-4	16.6%	2.4		0.8	1.1	0.4	0.1
13-5	4.4%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	30.5%	30.5		21.1	8.2	1.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	3.4%		74.8%	68.2%	6.6%	10.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.9		20.6%
17-1	8.6%		59.3%	56.5%	2.8%	12.4				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.5	1.7	0.9	0.2		3.5		6.4%
16-2	12.6%		46.2%	45.7%	0.6%	13.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	1.1	2.1	1.7	0.6	0.1	6.8		1.0%
15-3	14.7%		33.3%	33.2%	0.1%	13.9											0.0	0.0	0.4	1.3	1.8	1.2	0.2	9.8		0.1%
14-4	14.2%		24.8%	24.8%	0.0%	14.4													0.1	0.5	1.3	1.2	0.4	10.7		0.0%
13-5	13.1%		16.3%	16.3%		14.8													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.5	11.0
12-6	10.3%		10.9%	10.9%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	9.2
11-7	8.0%		6.9%	6.9%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	7.5
10-8	5.8%		4.0%	4.0%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	5.5
9-9	3.9%		2.5%	2.5%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	3.8
8-10	2.5%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	2.4
7-11	1.5%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
6-12	0.8%																							0.8
5-13	0.4%																							0.4
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		26.0%	25.5%	0.6%	13.4		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.9	3.6	6.3	6.7	4.8	2.2	74.0		0.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	4.2	2.6	10.1	20.7	24.5	24.3	13.2	1.6	1.4			1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	93.8%	5.3	7.3		8.3	14.6	21.9	29.2	6.3					6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	6.2			21.9	21.9		18.8			18.8	18.8