IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.1	#102
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	61.5	#340
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.8	#96

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.3	#108

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.8%	1.2%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	1.9%	2.8%	0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	32.6%	38.6%	21.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	2.4%	3.7%	0.4%
Average Seed	12.4	12.0	13.6

.500 or above	87.9%	94.2%	76.7%
.500 or above in Conference	93.8%	96.5%	88.9%
Conference Champion	36.8%	43.6%	24.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	1.2%	1.4%	0.9%
First Round	32.0%	37.9%	21.3%
Second Round	8.2%	10.7%	3.5%
Sweet Sixteen	2.8%	3.7%	1.0%
Elite Eight	0.8%	1.1%	0.3%
Final Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 64.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	6 - 4	7 - 7
Quad 4	12 - 2	19 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	111	UC Irvine	W	68-64	64%
Nov 13, 2021	163	UTEP	W	70-62	76%
Nov 18, 2021	98	Davidson	L	63-64	49%
Nov 30, 2021	240	New Mexico	W	72-60	85%
Dec 03, 2021	163	@ UTEP	W	67-65	56%
Dec 06, 2021	240	@ New Mexico	W	69-63	70%
Dec 11, 2021	82	@ Loyola Marymount	L	64-69	35%
Dec 15, 2021	69	@ Washington St.	L	63-69	31%
Dec 30, 2021	179	@ Seattle	W	71-68	59%
Jan 01, 2022	357	Chicago St.	W	84-54	99%
Jan 06, 2022	308	@ Lamar	W	72-62	80%
Jan 08, 2022	310	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	74-63	80%
Jan 13, 2022	185	Tarleton St.	W	68-59	77%
Jan 15, 2022	167	Abilene Christian	W	71-63	74%
Jan 20, 2022	196	@ Sam Houston St.	W	73-69	62%
Jan 22, 2022	153	@ Stephen F. Austin	W	69-68	54%
Jan 29, 2022	142	Grand Canyon	W	68-62	69%
Feb 03, 2022	215	California Baptist	W	78-67	80%
Feb 05, 2022	179	Seattle	W	74-65	75%
Feb 10, 2022	303	@ Dixie St.	W	78-68	78%
Feb 12, 2022	209	@ Utah Valley	W	72-68	63%
Feb 16, 2022	303	Dixie St.	W	81-65	90%
Feb 19, 2022	142	@ Grand Canyon	W	66-65	51%
Feb 26, 2022	357	@ Chicago St.	W	81-57	97%
Mar 02, 2022	153	Stephen F. Austin	W	72-65	71%
Mar 05, 2022	209	Utah Valley	W	75-65	79%
Projected Record						18 - 8	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.7	3.5	8.1	10.9	9.1	4.5		36.8	1st
2nd												0.1	0.8	3.7	6.9	5.0	1.6	0.1			18.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	3.3	5.5	3.0	0.4	0.0				12.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	2.6	4.3	2.0	0.2						9.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	1.8	3.3	1.7	0.2	0.0						7.1	5th
6th									0.1	1.1	2.4	1.4	0.2								5.3	6th
7th							0.0	0.1	0.7	1.8	1.1	0.2	0.0								3.9	7th
8th							0.1	0.4	1.2	0.8	0.1	0.0									2.7	8th
9th						0.0	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.0										1.8	9th
10th					0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1												1.2	10th
11th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0												0.5	11th
12th			0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0													0.2	12th
13th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0																0.0	13th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.6	2.8	4.1	5.9	8.1	10.3	12.1	13.6	13.6	12.4	9.2	4.5			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	4.5		4.5
17-1	99.0%	9.1		8.4	0.7	0.0
16-2	87.4%	10.9		8.2	2.6	0.1
15-3	59.8%	8.1		4.2	3.2	0.7	0.0	0.0
14-4	25.6%	3.5		1.0	1.5	0.8	0.2	0.0
13-5	5.8%	0.7		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	36.8%	36.8		26.4	8.2	1.9	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	4.5%		82.9%	71.9%	11.1%	8.1		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1			0.8		39.4%
17-1	9.2%		69.3%	61.8%	7.5%	11.2				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.0	1.9	1.4	0.4	0.0		2.8		19.5%
16-2	12.4%		54.5%	51.8%	2.7%	12.5					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	2.1	2.4	1.1	0.2	0.0	5.7		5.6%
15-3	13.6%		42.8%	42.1%	0.6%	13.2									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	1.2	2.1	1.7	0.6	0.0	7.8		1.1%
14-4	13.6%		32.1%	31.9%	0.2%	13.8											0.0	0.0	0.4	1.3	1.6	0.9	0.1	9.2		0.3%
13-5	12.1%		22.1%	22.0%	0.0%	14.2												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.2	9.4		0.0%
12-6	10.3%		14.4%	14.4%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.3	8.8
11-7	8.1%		9.5%	9.5%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	7.4
10-8	5.9%		6.7%	6.7%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	5.5
9-9	4.1%		3.7%	3.7%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	4.0
8-10	2.8%		1.2%	1.2%		15.9																0.0	0.0	2.8
7-11	1.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
6-12	1.0%																							1.0
5-13	0.5%																							0.5
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		32.6%	30.9%	1.6%	12.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.7	1.0	2.2	6.4	8.2	6.3	3.7	1.2	67.4		2.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.6%	100.0%	4.1	4.9	10.4	17.5	34.1	15.7	11.3	3.7	1.7	0.1	0.4	0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	91.6%	6.2			11.0	15.2	16.0	15.7	8.9	5.8	6.5	7.1	5.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	96.2%	6.7				10.8	7.0	23.1	29.0	18.3	3.8	3.8	0.5