Preseason Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#59
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.3#204
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#59
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#59
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 3.5% 3.6% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 9.0% 9.3% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 16.2% 16.7% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.9% 40.0% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.4% 37.5% 8.4%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 8.5
.500 or above 63.6% 65.2% 21.5%
.500 or above in Conference 47.8% 49.0% 16.0%
Conference Champion 4.3% 4.4% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 6.1% 21.2%
First Four3.6% 3.7% 1.4%
First Round37.1% 38.2% 7.8%
Second Round21.5% 22.2% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen9.2% 9.5% 1.0%
Elite Eight3.8% 4.0% 0.3%
Final Four1.6% 1.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 96.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 25 - 48 - 13
Quad 35 - 213 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 294   Bucknell W 84-65 96%    
  Nov 13, 2021 105   Colgate W 81-74 74%    
  Nov 16, 2021 346   Central Connecticut St. W 86-63 98%    
  Nov 17, 2021 35   Oklahoma St. L 73-76 41%    
  Nov 21, 2021 211   Texas Southern W 82-67 89%    
  Nov 27, 2021 93   Louisiana Tech W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 01, 2021 75   Nebraska W 77-72 65%    
  Dec 04, 2021 27   Louisville L 68-69 48%    
  Dec 09, 2021 350   Bethune-Cookman W 85-56 99%    
  Dec 12, 2021 5   Purdue L 66-74 27%    
  Dec 17, 2021 57   Richmond L 72-73 50%    
  Dec 22, 2021 115   Wright St. W 79-71 75%    
  Dec 29, 2021 85   @ Miami (FL) L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 01, 2022 18   Florida St. L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 04, 2022 34   @ Virginia Tech L 66-72 32%    
  Jan 08, 2022 55   Clemson W 67-64 59%    
  Jan 12, 2022 27   @ Louisville L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 15, 2022 10   @ Duke L 67-77 22%    
  Jan 19, 2022 34   Virginia Tech W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 22, 2022 29   Virginia L 59-60 49%    
  Jan 26, 2022 45   @ Notre Dame L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 22   @ North Carolina L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 02, 2022 44   Syracuse W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 45   Notre Dame W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 09, 2022 103   Wake Forest W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 117   @ Pittsburgh W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 15, 2022 60   @ Georgia Tech L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 23, 2022 144   Boston College W 80-70 79%    
  Feb 26, 2022 22   North Carolina L 75-76 46%    
  Mar 02, 2022 103   @ Wake Forest W 71-70 54%    
  Mar 05, 2022 18   @ Florida St. L 69-77 28%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.4 0.9 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.9 14th
15th 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.9 15th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.1 4.7 6.2 7.5 8.5 9.3 10.0 9.5 8.9 7.9 6.5 5.4 3.8 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.1% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 92.6% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
17-3 70.0% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.1
16-4 40.1% 1.1    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 15.3% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.7% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 2.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 99.9% 21.0% 78.9% 3.5 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 3.8% 99.8% 14.9% 84.8% 4.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 5.4% 98.0% 11.8% 86.2% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.7%
13-7 6.5% 94.0% 7.3% 86.7% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 93.6%
12-8 7.9% 81.1% 3.3% 77.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 80.4%
11-9 8.9% 62.9% 2.6% 60.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.3 61.9%
10-10 9.5% 40.6% 1.5% 39.1% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.1 5.7 39.7%
9-11 10.0% 16.2% 0.6% 15.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.4 15.7%
8-12 9.3% 4.0% 0.3% 3.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 3.7%
7-13 8.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.8%
6-14 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0%
5-15 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 6.2
4-16 4.7% 4.7
3-17 3.1% 3.1
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 38.9% 4.0% 35.0% 7.1 1.4 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.8 3.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 61.1 36.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0