Preseason Rankings
North Dakota St.
Summit League
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#130
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.6#326
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#125
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#145
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.1% 26.2% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.7
.500 or above 85.6% 91.2% 67.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 95.1% 85.0%
Conference Champion 28.1% 32.2% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 2.3%
First Round22.5% 25.7% 12.2%
Second Round3.7% 4.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 76.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 7
Quad 415 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 305   @ Cal Poly W 70-63 76%    
  Nov 15, 2021 145   @ UNLV L 66-68 43%    
  Nov 16, 2021 31   @ Arizona L 62-75 13%    
  Nov 22, 2021 185   Tarleton St. W 67-61 71%    
  Nov 27, 2021 341   Idaho W 77-59 94%    
  Nov 30, 2021 48   @ Creighton L 64-74 19%    
  Dec 07, 2021 204   @ Montana St. W 69-68 55%    
  Dec 10, 2021 296   Cal St. Northridge W 79-66 86%    
  Dec 13, 2021 176   Indiana St. W 70-64 68%    
  Dec 17, 2021 137   @ Pacific L 65-68 42%    
  Dec 22, 2021 313   North Dakota W 76-62 87%    
  Dec 30, 2021 99   South Dakota St. W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 01, 2022 186   South Dakota W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 06, 2022 344   @ Denver W 78-65 84%    
  Jan 08, 2022 326   @ Nebraska Omaha W 77-67 78%    
  Jan 13, 2022 353   St. Thomas W 82-57 97%    
  Jan 15, 2022 274   Western Illinois W 80-68 82%    
  Jan 20, 2022 233   @ UMKC W 64-61 61%    
  Jan 22, 2022 154   @ Oral Roberts L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 27, 2022 186   @ South Dakota W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 29, 2022 99   @ South Dakota St. L 72-78 32%    
  Feb 03, 2022 326   Nebraska Omaha W 80-64 89%    
  Feb 05, 2022 344   Denver W 81-62 93%    
  Feb 10, 2022 274   @ Western Illinois W 77-71 66%    
  Feb 12, 2022 353   @ St. Thomas W 79-60 93%    
  Feb 17, 2022 154   Oral Roberts W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 19, 2022 233   UMKC W 67-58 77%    
  Feb 26, 2022 313   @ North Dakota W 73-65 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.7 6.7 8.7 6.7 2.6 28.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.7 8.6 6.0 1.7 24.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 6.2 6.2 2.4 0.2 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.2 1.5 0.2 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.0 7.2 9.2 11.6 13.4 13.7 12.9 10.4 6.7 2.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
17-1 100.0% 6.7    6.2 0.6
16-2 83.3% 8.7    6.3 2.3 0.1
15-3 51.7% 6.7    3.4 2.8 0.4
14-4 19.9% 2.7    0.9 1.3 0.5 0.1
13-5 4.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.1% 28.1 19.4 7.2 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.6% 74.9% 67.7% 7.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 22.3%
17-1 6.7% 57.6% 54.6% 3.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.8 6.6%
16-2 10.4% 45.0% 44.1% 0.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 5.7 1.5%
15-3 12.9% 33.6% 33.4% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.2 8.6 0.3%
14-4 13.7% 24.4% 24.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.4 10.4 0.0%
13-5 13.4% 18.0% 18.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.7 11.0
12-6 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 10.4
11-7 9.2% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.5
10-8 7.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.8
9-9 5.0% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.8
8-10 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.2
7-11 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.1% 22.6% 0.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.8 5.0 5.9 4.8 3.0 76.9 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 1.9 7.1 16.5 26.1 24.7 13.7 2.5 3.8 1.6 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 94.7% 6.4 22.8 42.1 11.4 6.1 11.4 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 8.0 18.8 21.9 18.8 40.6