Preseason Rankings
North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#280
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.2#233
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#202
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#325
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 12.9% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 13.9 15.2
.500 or above 12.4% 51.0% 11.8%
.500 or above in Conference 41.7% 76.4% 41.2%
Conference Champion 2.9% 12.1% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 1.6% 11.2%
First Four1.4% 1.7% 1.4%
First Round3.2% 12.5% 3.0%
Second Round0.2% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 20 - 30 - 9
Quad 32 - 52 - 14
Quad 47 - 59 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 21   @ Texas Tech L 58-81 1%    
  Nov 10, 2021 94   @ Texas A&M L 62-77 8%    
  Nov 12, 2021 142   @ Grand Canyon L 65-76 16%    
  Nov 15, 2021 61   @ Arizona St. L 70-88 6%    
  Nov 17, 2021 3   @ UCLA L 56-83 1%    
  Nov 26, 2021 14   @ Kentucky L 62-86 2%    
  Nov 28, 2021 273   @ Florida International L 74-77 39%    
  Dec 05, 2021 159   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-77 21%    
  Dec 08, 2021 33   @ Florida L 63-84 4%    
  Dec 11, 2021 285   Austin Peay W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 21, 2021 18   @ Florida St. L 63-86 3%    
  Jan 04, 2022 222   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 73-79 31%    
  Jan 08, 2022 251   Stetson W 74-72 55%    
  Jan 11, 2022 110   @ Liberty L 61-75 13%    
  Jan 15, 2022 302   Jacksonville W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 18, 2022 311   Kennesaw St. W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 22, 2022 180   @ Eastern Kentucky L 77-86 24%    
  Jan 27, 2022 334   Central Arkansas W 82-74 74%    
  Jan 29, 2022 226   Lipscomb W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 03, 2022 164   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-76 22%    
  Feb 05, 2022 318   @ North Alabama L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 09, 2022 165   Bellarmine L 69-73 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 311   @ Kennesaw St. L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 15, 2022 110   Liberty L 64-72 27%    
  Feb 19, 2022 222   Florida Gulf Coast L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 23, 2022 302   @ Jacksonville L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 26, 2022 251   @ Stetson L 71-75 37%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.6 1.4 0.1 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.0 2.1 0.2 10.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 5.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 5.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 5.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 11.0 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 4.4 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.3 10th
11th 0.4 1.9 3.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 9.1 11th
12th 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.4 12th
Total 0.7 2.2 4.3 6.9 9.2 11.0 12.1 12.0 11.3 9.8 7.8 5.5 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 98.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-2 77.6% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
13-3 44.6% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-4 16.3% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-5 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 59.0% 55.7% 3.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4%
15-1 0.4% 38.0% 35.7% 2.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6%
14-2 1.0% 26.6% 26.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-3 2.2% 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.6 0.0%
12-4 3.7% 17.7% 17.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.1
11-5 5.5% 10.3% 10.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 4.9
10-6 7.8% 7.0% 7.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 7.3
9-7 9.8% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 9.3
8-8 11.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.0
7-9 12.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.8
6-10 12.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.0
5-11 11.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.9
4-12 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.2
3-13 6.9% 6.9
2-14 4.3% 4.3
1-15 2.2% 2.2
0-16 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 3.8% 3.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%