Preseason Rankings
Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#45
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.9#242
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 2.0% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 4.7% 4.8% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 11.7% 12.0% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 20.0% 20.5% 2.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.4% 45.4% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.0% 42.0% 9.5%
Average Seed 6.8 6.8 8.3
.500 or above 72.3% 73.6% 28.5%
.500 or above in Conference 62.7% 63.8% 28.3%
Conference Champion 8.3% 8.5% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.4% 15.6%
First Four3.6% 3.7% 1.5%
First Round42.6% 43.5% 9.8%
Second Round26.6% 27.2% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen12.3% 12.6% 1.4%
Elite Eight5.8% 6.0% 0.3%
Final Four2.6% 2.7% 0.1%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 38 - 11
Quad 34 - 113 - 12
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 296   Cal St. Northridge W 88-67 97%    
  Nov 16, 2021 299   High Point W 81-60 97%    
  Nov 22, 2021 49   St. Mary's W 68-67 51%    
  Nov 29, 2021 8   @ Illinois L 72-81 23%    
  Dec 03, 2021 144   @ Boston College W 80-74 68%    
  Dec 11, 2021 14   Kentucky L 73-74 45%    
  Dec 18, 2021 30   Indiana L 69-71 43%    
  Dec 20, 2021 284   Western Michigan W 81-61 95%    
  Dec 22, 2021 342   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 87-61 98%    
  Dec 28, 2021 117   @ Pittsburgh W 75-71 61%    
  Jan 01, 2022 10   Duke L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 05, 2022 22   North Carolina L 77-78 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 60   @ Georgia Tech L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 12, 2022 55   Clemson W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 15, 2022 34   @ Virginia Tech L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 17, 2022 332   @ Howard W 89-70 93%    
  Jan 22, 2022 27   @ Louisville L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 26, 2022 59   North Carolina St. W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 29   Virginia W 62-61 53%    
  Feb 02, 2022 85   @ Miami (FL) W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 59   @ North Carolina St. L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 09, 2022 27   Louisville W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 12, 2022 55   @ Clemson L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 16, 2022 144   Boston College W 83-71 82%    
  Feb 19, 2022 103   @ Wake Forest W 74-71 58%    
  Feb 22, 2022 44   Syracuse W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 60   Georgia Tech W 74-69 64%    
  Mar 02, 2022 18   @ Florida St. L 72-78 31%    
  Mar 05, 2022 117   Pittsburgh W 78-68 77%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.0 0.3 8.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.6 2.3 0.6 0.1 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.8 0.8 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.3 1.3 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 15th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.6 5.2 6.6 7.7 8.6 9.2 9.5 9.2 8.8 7.8 6.4 4.9 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 98.3% 1.0    0.9 0.1
18-2 87.8% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
17-3 64.9% 2.3    1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 36.9% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 13.9% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 5.0 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.0% 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.1% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 2.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.5% 99.9% 24.6% 75.3% 3.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 4.9% 99.6% 18.9% 80.7% 4.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 6.4% 97.7% 14.0% 83.8% 5.8 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.4%
14-6 7.8% 92.4% 9.1% 83.2% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 91.6%
13-7 8.8% 81.5% 6.1% 75.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 80.3%
12-8 9.2% 62.7% 3.6% 59.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.4 61.3%
11-9 9.5% 38.9% 2.0% 36.8% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 5.8 37.6%
10-10 9.2% 20.4% 1.0% 19.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.3 19.5%
9-11 8.6% 6.3% 0.4% 5.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.0 5.9%
8-12 7.7% 1.3% 0.2% 1.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 1.1%
7-13 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 0.0%
6-14 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 5.2
5-15 3.6% 3.6
4-16 2.7% 2.7
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 44.4% 5.8% 38.6% 6.8 1.9 2.7 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 55.6 41.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 80.7 19.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 83.1 16.9