Preseason Rankings
Ohio
Mid-American
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#91
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.1#126
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#123
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 2.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 4.2% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.9% 31.8% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.3% 8.4% 1.6%
Average Seed 11.1 10.6 12.5
.500 or above 88.6% 95.3% 79.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 94.8% 84.6%
Conference Champion 26.6% 33.5% 17.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.9% 2.5% 0.9%
First Round24.1% 30.6% 14.8%
Second Round8.3% 11.6% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 4.5% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 22 - 5
Quad 36 - 39 - 9
Quad 413 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 81   Belmont W 79-77 58%    
  Nov 13, 2021 151   @ Cleveland St. W 74-72 57%    
  Nov 15, 2021 282   Robert Morris W 83-67 91%    
  Nov 19, 2021 14   @ Kentucky L 69-81 16%    
  Nov 22, 2021 242   Mount St. Mary's W 73-59 87%    
  Dec 01, 2021 36   @ LSU L 75-84 23%    
  Dec 04, 2021 283   St. Francis (PA) W 84-68 90%    
  Dec 11, 2021 251   @ Stetson W 78-70 74%    
  Dec 15, 2021 118   Marshall W 83-78 67%    
  Dec 21, 2021 343   South Carolina Upstate W 85-63 96%    
  Dec 28, 2021 300   Eastern Michigan W 81-64 91%    
  Jan 01, 2022 284   @ Western Michigan W 77-67 78%    
  Jan 04, 2022 128   @ Akron W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 08, 2022 132   Kent St. W 80-73 70%    
  Jan 11, 2022 150   Bowling Green W 82-74 73%    
  Jan 15, 2022 279   @ Central Michigan W 85-76 77%    
  Jan 18, 2022 152   @ Miami (OH) W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 22, 2022 114   Toledo W 80-75 66%    
  Jan 25, 2022 314   Northern Illinois W 80-62 92%    
  Jan 29, 2022 83   @ Buffalo L 79-83 38%    
  Feb 01, 2022 199   Ball St. W 82-71 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 284   Western Michigan W 80-64 89%    
  Feb 08, 2022 114   @ Toledo L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 78-67 80%    
  Feb 15, 2022 152   Miami (OH) W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 19, 2022 132   @ Kent St. W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 22, 2022 279   Central Michigan W 88-73 89%    
  Feb 26, 2022 128   Akron W 77-71 69%    
  Mar 01, 2022 150   @ Bowling Green W 79-77 55%    
  Mar 04, 2022 314   @ Northern Illinois W 77-65 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.1 6.7 7.1 5.0 2.0 26.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.7 6.0 3.5 1.1 0.1 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.3 4.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.7 8.4 10.1 11.4 11.8 11.6 10.3 8.2 5.1 2.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
19-1 98.1% 5.0    4.6 0.4
18-2 86.5% 7.1    5.6 1.5 0.1
17-3 65.0% 6.7    4.2 2.3 0.3 0.0
16-4 35.4% 4.1    1.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
15-5 12.3% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.6% 26.6 18.6 6.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.0% 92.5% 66.0% 26.6% 5.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 78.1%
19-1 5.1% 79.1% 55.8% 23.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 52.7%
18-2 8.2% 59.7% 44.2% 15.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.3 27.8%
17-3 10.3% 43.8% 35.7% 8.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.8 12.6%
16-4 11.6% 30.0% 27.3% 2.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.1 3.8%
15-5 11.8% 20.3% 19.7% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.4 0.7%
14-6 11.4% 14.1% 13.9% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.8 0.3%
13-7 10.1% 9.8% 9.8% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.1
12-8 8.4% 6.8% 6.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.8
11-9 6.7% 4.6% 4.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.4
10-10 4.9% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.8
9-11 3.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
8-12 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.3
7-13 1.5% 1.5
6-14 1.0% 1.0
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.9% 20.7% 4.2% 11.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 3.1 6.1 4.9 2.6 1.0 0.3 75.1 5.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.7 14.4 30.0 36.3 14.3 3.0 0.9 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.8 7.6 13.5 25.9 21.1 14.1 14.6 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 34.1 48.8 17.1