IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Old Dominion
Conference USA
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.5	#131
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.6	#222
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.0	#173

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.5	#106

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.3%	0.6%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.7%	1.4%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.9%	14.8%	5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	2.5%	4.5%	0.8%
Average Seed	11.4	11.0	12.6

.500 or above	65.8%	81.5%	51.3%
.500 or above in Conference	67.2%	78.6%	56.7%
Conference Champion	9.7%	14.3%	5.4%
Last Place in Conference	3.3%	1.3%	5.1%

First Four	1.2%	1.9%	0.5%
First Round	9.3%	13.7%	5.1%
Second Round	2.8%	4.6%	1.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.8%	1.4%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	2 - 6
Quad 3	6 - 5	7 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 2	17 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2021	172	@ James Madison	L	75-76	48%
Nov 15, 2021	278	Manhattan	W	72-60	85%
Nov 18, 2021	176	Indiana St.	W	69-66	60%
Nov 26, 2021	249	Longwood	W	70-60	81%
Nov 30, 2021	183	@ East Carolina	W	69-68	51%
Dec 04, 2021	169	@ George Mason	L	68-69	48%
Dec 07, 2021	295	@ William & Mary	W	73-66	71%
Dec 11, 2021	77	Virginia Commonwealth	L	69-71	44%
Dec 19, 2021	57	@ Richmond	L	66-76	22%
Dec 22, 2021	235	College of Charleston	W	71-62	78%
Dec 30, 2021	273	@ Florida International	W	75-69	67%
Jan 01, 2022	159	@ Florida Atlantic	L	69-70	47%
Jan 08, 2022	178	@ Charlotte	L	63-64	50%
Jan 13, 2022	207	Texas San Antonio	W	79-71	73%
Jan 15, 2022	163	UTEP	W	70-65	66%
Jan 20, 2022	173	@ Rice	L	73-74	48%
Jan 22, 2022	123	@ North Texas	L	61-65	39%
Jan 29, 2022	178	Charlotte	W	66-60	68%
Feb 03, 2022	118	Marshall	W	77-75	56%
Feb 05, 2022	100	Western Kentucky	W	70-69	50%
Feb 10, 2022	267	@ Middle Tennessee	W	73-68	66%
Feb 13, 2022	74	UAB	L	67-69	44%
Feb 17, 2022	118	@ Marshall	L	74-78	37%
Feb 19, 2022	100	@ Western Kentucky	L	66-72	32%
Feb 24, 2022	159	Florida Atlantic	W	72-67	66%
Feb 26, 2022	273	Florida International	W	78-66	82%
Mar 02, 2022	93	@ Louisiana Tech	L	68-74	31%
Mar 05, 2022	267	Middle Tennessee	W	76-65	81%
Projected Record						16 - 12	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.6	1.8	2.9	2.6	1.4	0.4		9.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.1	2.9	3.7	1.8	0.4	0.0			10.1	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.2	3.5	3.7	1.5	0.1	0.0				10.1	3rd
4th										0.0	0.9	3.5	3.7	1.2	0.1	0.0					9.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.7	3.4	4.1	1.4	0.1	0.0						9.7	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.7	4.1	1.6	0.2	0.0							8.8	6th
7th								0.2	1.7	4.2	2.0	0.2									8.3	7th
8th							0.1	1.2	3.6	2.3	0.3	0.0									7.5	8th
9th						0.0	0.7	3.0	2.6	0.5	0.0										6.8	9th
10th					0.0	0.5	2.2	2.6	0.7	0.0											6.0	10th
11th				0.0	0.3	1.7	2.1	0.7	0.1												4.9	11th
12th			0.0	0.3	1.1	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.0												3.9	12th
13th	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.2	0.6	0.1	0.0													2.9	13th
14th	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0														1.7	14th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.6	2.9	4.5	5.9	7.8	8.9	10.4	10.8	10.8	9.9	8.6	7.0	4.8	3.0	1.4	0.4			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
17-1	98.3%	1.4		1.3	0.1
16-2	85.4%	2.6		1.9	0.6	0.0	0.0
15-3	59.1%	2.9		1.5	1.1	0.2	0.0
14-4	25.1%	1.8		0.6	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	7.1%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	9.7%	9.7		5.7	2.8	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.4%		88.5%	55.5%	32.9%	5.5		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		74.1%
17-1	1.4%		75.6%	41.2%	34.5%	8.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.3		58.6%
16-2	3.0%		55.7%	33.6%	22.1%	10.3				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0			1.3		33.3%
15-3	4.8%		35.8%	24.2%	11.6%	11.3						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0		3.1		15.2%
14-4	7.0%		23.5%	19.2%	4.3%	12.1									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	5.4		5.3%
13-5	8.6%		14.8%	13.5%	1.3%	12.8										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	7.3		1.5%
12-6	9.9%		9.1%	8.7%	0.4%	13.3											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	9.0		0.4%
11-7	10.8%		5.5%	5.3%	0.1%	13.6												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	10.2		0.1%
10-8	10.8%		2.7%	2.7%		14.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.5
9-9	10.4%		1.7%	1.7%		14.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	10.2
8-10	8.9%		0.9%	0.9%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.8
7-11	7.8%		0.8%	0.8%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.7
6-12	5.9%		0.3%	0.3%		15.9																0.0	0.0	5.9
5-13	4.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.5
4-14	2.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.9
3-15	1.6%																							1.6
2-16	0.8%																							0.8
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		9.9%	7.6%	2.3%	11.4		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.7	1.3	2.6	1.9	1.1	0.5	0.1	90.1		2.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	2.8	21.0	25.8	24.2	18.3	2.8	7.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	4.3	10.1		18.8	30.4	20.3		20.3
Lose Out	0.0%