Preseason Rankings
Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#248
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#209
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#232
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#278
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 12.5% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.5 15.2
.500 or above 37.4% 65.3% 29.6%
.500 or above in Conference 48.4% 69.3% 42.6%
Conference Champion 7.1% 14.8% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 4.5% 14.7%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 1.5%
First Round5.9% 11.6% 4.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 21.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 63 - 11
Quad 411 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 162   @ Duquesne L 67-75 22%    
  Nov 12, 2021 336   Coppin St. W 85-75 81%    
  Nov 14, 2021 354   Delaware St. W 88-71 94%    
  Nov 17, 2021 294   @ Bucknell L 75-76 47%    
  Nov 20, 2021 83   @ Buffalo L 71-86 10%    
  Nov 23, 2021 267   Middle Tennessee W 73-72 53%    
  Nov 28, 2021 104   @ South Carolina L 72-85 14%    
  Nov 30, 2021 66   @ Mississippi L 59-75 9%    
  Dec 03, 2021 146   @ Iona L 67-76 22%    
  Dec 05, 2021 246   Marist W 69-66 59%    
  Dec 18, 2021 50   @ Rutgers L 61-79 7%    
  Jan 02, 2022 261   @ Quinnipiac L 73-76 42%    
  Jan 07, 2022 278   Manhattan W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 09, 2022 246   @ Marist L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 14, 2022 261   Quinnipiac W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 16, 2022 191   St. Peter's L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 21, 2022 265   @ Canisius L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 23, 2022 250   @ Niagara L 67-70 41%    
  Jan 28, 2022 260   Fairfield W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 30, 2022 265   Canisius W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 04, 2022 227   @ Siena L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 11, 2022 191   @ St. Peter's L 64-71 30%    
  Feb 13, 2022 227   Siena W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 18, 2022 216   @ Monmouth L 76-81 35%    
  Feb 20, 2022 278   @ Manhattan L 67-69 45%    
  Feb 25, 2022 250   Niagara W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 27, 2022 146   Iona L 70-73 40%    
  Mar 03, 2022 260   @ Fairfield L 64-67 42%    
  Mar 05, 2022 216   Monmouth W 79-78 53%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.6 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.5 1.1 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 3.6 1.1 0.1 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.5 2.9 0.8 0.1 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.0 2.1 0.6 0.1 9.2 10th
11th 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.4 11th
Total 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.3 4.6 6.2 7.3 8.5 9.0 9.4 9.5 8.8 7.9 6.6 5.4 4.1 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 96.9% 1.0    0.9 0.1
17-3 84.9% 1.5    1.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 59.9% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 34.6% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 12.9% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 4.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 72.4% 63.9% 8.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.6%
19-1 0.4% 49.2% 48.1% 1.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1%
18-2 1.0% 42.9% 42.9% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
17-3 1.8% 34.0% 34.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2
16-4 2.9% 29.5% 29.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.0
15-5 4.1% 20.9% 20.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 3.2
14-6 5.4% 17.4% 17.4% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 4.4
13-7 6.6% 13.0% 13.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 5.7
12-8 7.9% 9.3% 9.3% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 7.1
11-9 8.8% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.3
10-10 9.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.2
9-11 9.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.3
8-12 9.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.9
7-13 8.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.5
6-14 7.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.3
5-15 6.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.2
4-16 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
3-17 3.3% 3.3
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.7 93.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%